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Violence, Governance, Development

Violence, Governance, Development. SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa Addis Ababa, 2012. Analytical links: governance & violence. Links between Governance & Violence. Allocation of rights to violence States as war-makers

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Violence, Governance, Development

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  1. Violence, Governance, Development SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa Addis Ababa, 2012

  2. Analytical links: governance & violence

  3. Links between Governance & Violence • Allocation of rights to violence • States as war-makers • Managing the violence problem: coalitions and economic development • The perpetual and pervasive violence problem

  4. Links, continued… • Violence as lack of governance? • Violence as reflection of governance? • Violence as source of improved governance?

  5. Rents, coalitions, violence • Deterrent organizations, or credible threat • Generating rents so that violence reduces value of privileges for elites • Or just have powerful organizations of force that are subservient to law

  6. Trends, levels, classification

  7. Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM

  8. Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas

  9. Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006

  10. Violence and Development I

  11. Grievance • Growth (5 years before onset) • Repression (elections, press freedom, etc) • Inequality (Gini coefficient) • Ethnicity (ELF)

  12. Greed • Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP) • Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population) • Education (number of years average schooling)

  13. How to overcome constraints on collective action • Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals • Coercion • Norms & ideology • Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy • Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)

  14. Friendly Fire? • Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables • Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique • Conclusions not justified by findings • Might be published in an IR journal but not in a 3rd rate economics journal.

  15. Post-conflict aid

  16. From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  17. From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  18. Aid volatility coefficient From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  19. Political His in Kenya Frances Stewart, “Kenya disturbances: note for discussion”, 2008

  20. Frances Stewart conclusions • Socio-economic HIs favour Kikuyu, regionally and within (e.g. within Rift Valley vis-à-visKalenjin) • Political ‘elite bargain’ reflected in inclusive cabinets…till 2005. • Political power offers elite benefits; socio-economic HIs facilitate mobilisation.

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