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The impact of the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions on weather and climate in Europe

Planned contribution to NACLIM. The impact of the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions on weather and climate in Europe CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Lingling Suo ; Yongqi Gao Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway.

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The impact of the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions on weather and climate in Europe

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  1. Plannedcontribution to NACLIM The impactoftheextreme Arctic seaiceconditionsonweather and climate in Europe CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg LinglingSuo; YongqiGao Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway

  2. The northern sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice distributions“strongly impact on weather and climate in Europe, determining precipitation patterns and strengths, as well as changes in temperature and wind patterns.” ------ from NACLIM website

  3. ModelExperimentsset up Blue:the 100 yearmean in a present daysimulation (CT0) which is a freecoupledexperimentperformed by the Bergen Climatemodelwiththeexternalforcingsfixed in 2000 yearlevel. Red:the last 20 yearmean in a futureprojectionexperiment (FP0) which is a 120a freecoupledexperiment by BCM withthegraduallyincreasing CO2 concentration from 367ppm to 992 ppm in the beginning100 years and theconstant 992ppm CO2 concentration in the last 20 year. The otherexternalforcingsarefixed in 2000 yearlevel Black: theseaiceconditonsinterpolated from Blue and Red and used in oursensitivityexperiments; Autumn – Seaicefree in Arctic; From winter to summer – same as present day: By Dong Guo

  4. ModelExperimentsfinished UsingAtmospere global climatemodel : • Control simulations (usingthe 100 yearmean in CT0 as boundaryconditions to forcethemodel) • Sensitivityexperiments (withseaiceremoval and highseasurfacetemperature (the last 20a mean in FP0) as boundaryconditions during autumn in Arctic. In other regions and in otherseasons in Arctic, theboundaryconditionsarethe same as thecontrol run.) 300 pairs for comparison. Each pairs last for oneyear. The differencesbetweencontrol and sensitibityexperimentsarecaused by extremeseaiceconditions and SST during autumn in Arctic.

  5. Analysisongoing: • Precipitation, Temperaturechanges and large scaleatmospheremodulationwhen all seaice is removed from the Arctic during theautumn. • The late responseofweather and climate in Winter or Spring to thefreeseaice Arctic during Autumn. • The teleconnectionbetween Arctic seaiceconditions in Autumn and themid-latitudes and tropics.

  6. In general, therobutstreponsesaremainly in autumn and earlywinter. • Localprecipitationchangesare most robust with more/less snowfall in far northoftheArctic/subpolar. The more rainfall is located in the region with less snowfall. • During thisperiod, besidesthelocalprecipationchanges in Arctic, thereareteleconnectionpatterns in midlatitudes and subtropicswheretheanomaliescan pass the 95% significance test. • The late rainfallresponse during the spring in mid latitude canalso pass the 95% significance test.

  7. To do • Continueanalysisongoing • Try to constructthebrigeoftheteleconnectionbetween Arctic and midlatitide Thanks

  8. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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