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STRATFOR RESEARCH

Introduction to. STRATFOR RESEARCH. Communication. Always be available during your scheduled hours and DON’T BE AWOL Keep Research Dept in the loop Quality assurance for STRATFOR Access to resources and guidance for you Avoid huge wastes of time Reply-All is the rule, not the exception.

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STRATFOR RESEARCH

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  1. Introduction to STRATFOR RESEARCH

  2. Communication • Always be available during your scheduled hours and DON’T BE AWOL • Keep Research Dept in the loop • Quality assurance for STRATFOR • Access to resources and guidance for you • Avoid huge wastes of time • Reply-All is the rule, not the exception

  3. Time Management • Always start with the assumption that the information exists • Where can the information be found and how long will it take to find it? • Spend enough time that the research is solid, but not so much that a missed deadline destroys its value • Set goals and try to keep them

  4. Research as Analytic Support • Speed • Focus is key • Efficiency – we’ll get more into that later • Knowing where to go (hint: probably not Google) • Quality • Accuracy is absolutely critical • Completion is our goal in everything • Neat, organized, accessible

  5. How Does Research Get Done Two ways Do it yourself Get someone to tell you

  6. Don’t be lazy Do it yourself

  7. The Importance of Primary Sources • DON’T • Outsource your brain • Trust “common knowledge” • Trust the first report you come across • DO • Start stupid, build up • Be able to trust your research • Become an authority

  8. Primary Sources Overview • Alphabet soup organizations • State Dept background notes, LOC Country Studies, OpenCRS • Government websites • Ministries for everything! Trade, finance, defense, foreign affairs, etc. • Central banks • Reference library • Janes, Military Balance, Energy Atlas, China Statistical Yearbook, magazines, etc

  9. Economic • IMF. IFS, WEO, SDDS, Article IV consultations, papers. • UN. Commodities, demographics, external debt, developmental. • EIA, IEA, OPEC, BP, Petroleum Economist, Oil and Gas Journal, FAS, FAO, USGS • Eurostat, ITC TradeMap, bilaterals.org

  10. Military and CT • DOD/Dot-Mils, Press releases, PAOs • UNHCR, ReliefWeb, Logistics Cluster • Global Security, Military Periscope, SIPRI, INSS, Jane’s, IISS Balance • RAND, Brookings, UnderstandingWar.org, etc • NCTC WITS, UMD GTD, SATP • Facebook, blogs (surprisingly)

  11. Finding Primary Sources • Research sources XLS • Networked bookmarks • Google - I lied, it’s awesome • Search modifiers, URL analysis • Database search • Wikipedia • Be careful – Only good as a jumping off point • Check the links at the bottom • Trade orgs and market reports – money at stake and boots on the ground • Blogs

  12. Media Reports asSecondary Sources • Media reports almost always reference the primary source • Sometimes information can only be found in media reports – we’ll take it (reluctantly)

  13. Digging up Media Reports • Best media reports of all are at stratfor.com – use it. • Your own email • Quick Find vs. Message Search • OS collections and translations • Mailman archives • Google News/Archives/Newspapers • Modifiers work here too • BBC Monitoring

  14. Radix non grata • CIA World Factbook • Woefully outdated, frequently inaccurate • Most junk on Wikipedia • Opinion • Analysis • Outright lunacy • Indexmundi and Nationmaster • Just aggregating from sources you should know anyway (and CIA Factbook) • Whatever random garbage your Google search turned up

  15. Doing It Well • Read the fine print • Make sure units match • Consider the broader context • Independently verify

  16. Make a friend Get someoneto tell you

  17. Cold Calls • Can yield information very quickly if targeted correctly • Generate contacts, submit for archival • Names • Titles • How to identify yourself • Global intelligence company (mysterious) • Research firm (business focused) • Online publishing (innocuous) • Don’t take ‘no’ for an answer – get a referral

  18. Emails • Just do it (a lot) • Don’t pester, but persist

  19. Who To Contact • Reporters • Other academics and researchers • Information desks at government agencies and libraries • Public affairs officers • The appropriate attaché at the embassy • Local business, chamber of commerce, port authority, police department, statistical agency, etc, etc.

  20. Finding Contact Info • Refer back to section on Google • Academic papers are usually the mother lode of contact info • Check the executive summaries and back covers

  21. Phone or Email? • Phone is often better than email • Harder to ignore • Inject some humanity into the interaction and even lay on a little charm • Email may be more appropriate • Time zone differences • Easier to relay complex data • Get calls in early, then hit your primary resources while you wait for call back

  22. Submitting research

  23. Formatting Rules • Learn them once, benefit for the rest of your time here • Senior staff insists on quality • Don’t send a Word doc to do an Excel spreadsheet’s job • Your final product must be accessible • Put yourself in your “client’s” shoes

  24. Present It Backwards • If you’re asked a question, what is expected? Put it at the top. • Then include a summary that outlines how you got there • Get into the nuts and bolts last

  25. CITE CITECITECITECITE • Much of this research will be your legacy at STRATFOR. Please don’t make me throw it away. • Fully document both your sources and methods • Be as specific as possible

  26. DATE DATEDATEDATEDATE • I’m tired of typing these slides • Just date everything, okay? • That means individual components, sources, entire documents, everything!

  27. Alternative Platforms • Google Earth • Timeline Maker • Slideshow (PPT/PDF) • Mixed • Word/Excel • Earth/Text/Graphics • Whatever makes the information most accessible

  28. epilogue

  29. Real World vs. Academia • Different time management strategies • Academia: Two minutes early same as two days early • Real World: Real gains for early submissions. (Caveat: still has to be right) • “Just get it turned in” is not an option • Citations must be rigorously traced back to their original source

  30. The Internet • This is our world. STRATFOR wouldn’t exist in its current form without that great networked ocean of knowledge out there. • Get to know it. Be a geek. • Explore creative new ways to obtain knowledge • Invent interesting ways to interpret it • Be on the cutting edge

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