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Presented by: Michael C. Render

FTTH's Second Decade Begins: Where We Are, Where We Are Going. North American FTTH: 10 Year Report Card . Presented by: Michael C. Render. Has FTTH Had An Impact?. Economy. Quality of User Experience. New Technology. Has FTTH Become A Household Name?. Consumer Recognition.

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Presented by: Michael C. Render

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  1. FTTH's Second Decade Begins: Where We Are, Where We Are Going North American FTTH: 10 Year Report Card Presented by: Michael C. Render

  2. Has FTTH Had An Impact? Economy Quality of User Experience New Technology

  3. Has FTTH Become A Household Name? Consumer Recognition

  4. Have We Overcome Challenges? Political Funding

  5. Has FTTH Deployment Grown? Will It Continue? Greenfield Construction Existing Overbuilds

  6. “Has FTTH Had An Impact?”…. ….Economy (Grade: A)

  7. How would you best describe the organization you work for? Select one: • RBOC • ILEC • CLEC • MSO • Municipal government • State or regional government • Real Estate Developer/Integrator • End-user business • Consultant • Equipment vendor • Contractor

  8. Billions In Home Based Business Impact • Average revenue from home- based businesses in FTTH homes is $59,780 • Revenue for FTTH home-based businesses is $46.7 Billion • Revenue estimated to be related to FTTH performance is $11.1 Billion * • * 11% said their business would not be possible without FTTH, and 64% said it is more efficient FTTH Enhanced Home - Based Business Reported

  9. Billions In Traditional Economic Development/GDP Growth

  10. Billions In Environmental Savings Days worked from home increased 1 day per month on average: • 1 day per month average (Nearly 12% work more from home directly because of FTTH – an average of 9 days more) • US Carbon Emissions reduced by .06% (5.5% of citizens * 3% * 40%) • FTTH also lowers energy use, road maintenance, accidents, unproductive hours… Extra Days From Home Reported

  11. “Has FTTH Had An Impact?”… …Quality of User Experience (Grade: A+)

  12. Much Higher Satisfaction With Internet Aspects • FTTH Versus Cable Modem Reliability – service uptime Broadband speed Installation process Consistency of speed Provider’s customer service 12

  13. Much Higher Satisfaction With Television Aspects • FTTH Versus Cable Quality of HD picture Standard television Number of HD channels VOD 13

  14. Much Higher Tested Download Performance Median Mbps By Year

  15. Much Higher Tested Upload Performance Median Mbps By Year

  16. Far Fewer Modem Reboots Reported Per Month FTTH DSL FTTN Cable modem Wireless 16

  17. Users Clearly Understand Key Advantages Of FTTH Open End Responses Speed/ faster/ better Internet/ bandwidth Picture clarity/ video clarity Reliability/ consistency/ no hassles Bundle of several services on one bill Cost Fewer weather disruptions Quality Number of channels/ entertainment choice Better customer service General positives - pleased to have it DVR Convenience Better than previous cable company Video-on-demand/ movie downloads No satellite dish Better technology/ up-to-date Lines are buried/ No overhead Can run two computers at once Easy installation Other 17

  18. “Has FTTH Had An Impact?”… …New Technology (Grade: C)

  19. Some Increased Use Of Advanced Internet Applications • Among FTTH Users Under Age 40 By Year Shop online Play single player games Upload large files Download or stream video to computer Play multi player games Upload video content to Internet Use VOIP for audio Use two-way video conferencing Transfer files for remote offsite storage Download or stream video to television set Use remote software / “cloud computing” Use remote monitoring camera video Participate in a virtual world 19

  20. There Is Interest In Futuristic Services Current FTTH Users Under Age 40 Business video conferencing Very large HDD with super resolution Advanced websites/ full video Remote home and pet monitoring Online face-to-face healthcare Advanced online shopping One device for TV, Internet, & phone Two-way video calling Advanced online college 3D TV 20

  21. There Is Interest In Futuristic Services Current FTTH Users Age 55+ Online face-to-face healthcare Very large HDD with super resolution One device for TV, Internet, & phone Advanced online shopping Two-way video calling Remote home and pet monitoring Advanced websites/ full video Business video conferencing 3D TV Advanced online college 21

  22. FTTH Upload Performance Will Become A Competitive Advantage Median Mbps By Year

  23. “Has FTTH Become A Household Name?”… …Consumer Recognition (Grade: C)

  24. General Public Awareness Of FTTH Is Still Low • By Year 2009 2010 24

  25. Yet When Described, Users Understand The Importance Of FTTH In New Home Development Non FTTH Users: Internet from a direct fiber optic line Green space / walking, jogging 24 hour neighborhood patrol Community pool / park Fitness center / Clubhouse Current FTTH Users: Internet from a direct fiber optic line Green space / walking, jogging 24 hour neighborhood patrol Community pool / park Fitness center / Clubhouse 25

  26. “Have We Overcome Challenges?”… …Political (Grade: A)

  27. “Have We Overcome Challenges?”… …Funding (Grade: B-)

  28. Nearly $40 Billion In Investment To Date

  29. Total U.S. Telco & Cable Capital Expenditures Are Stable Total North American Telco & Cable Capital Expenditures Are Stable

  30. But There Is Competition For Telecom Capex Wireline Wireless DSL broadband speeds are falling far behind the competition. Telcos are starting to lose subscribers and need an FTTH update. This is reaching severe levels in some areas, such as eastern Canada. Smartphone penetration is expected to increase from 15% to 70% in just three years with the increasing use of higher bandwidth applications. Some see this as an impending crisis.

  31. Other Investment Offers Opportunities National public investment Municipal public investment Private investment

  32. “Has FTTH Deployment Grown?”… …Greenfield Construction (Grade: B-) …Existing Overbuilds (Grade: A-)

  33. FTTH Homes Passed Have GrownCumulative – North America 100 x Growth since 2001

  34. FTTH Homes Connected Have GrownCumulative – North America

  35. FTTH Penetration Has Grown Cumulative – United States

  36. But FTTH Penetration Is Not UniformPercent Of Households Connected +

  37. FTTH Internet Use Has Steadily Grown • Broadband Type Primarily Used At Home • USA By Year

  38. There Has Been Some Short Term Slowing Of Growth

  39. FTTH Homes Passed Annual Change – North America

  40. FTTH Homes Connected Annual Change – North America

  41. Greenfield FTTH Homes Connected Will IncreaseAnnual – North America

  42. Greenfield Will Finally Take Off As Older Copper-Based Developments Are Filled

  43. Likelihood Of Overbuilds Still Look Good In Many Sectors Adding FTTH: Current Non RBOC FTTH Providers Very unlikely Somewhat unlikely Somewhat likely Very likely All customers have FTTH 43

  44. Telecom Video Was An Early Driver FTTH Video Homes ConnectedCumulative – North America

  45. Broadband Line Loss Will Become A Driver Net Broadband Adds 2009 MSO’s (Docsis2, Docsis 3) Verizon (DSL, FTTH) Other RBOC (DSL, FTTN) Source: Leichtman Research 45

  46. Broadband Line Loss Will Become A Driver Net Broadband Adds First Half 2010 MSO’s (Docsis2, Docsis 3) Verizon (DSL, FTTH) Other RBOC (DSL, FTTN) Source: Leichtman Market Research 46

  47. How many additional North American homes do you expect to be passed by FTTH or FTTB in next 5 years (by the end of 2015)? Select one: • 3 million or less • 6 million • 9 million • 12 million • 15 million or more

  48. North American FTTH Will Begin A New Mild Increase - With More Explosive Growth Possible Key: Yellow – stable Light green – moderate growth Dark green – strong growth Note: Much of the RBOC decline has already occurred.

  49. Overall… The FTTH Picture Looks Positive!

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