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This experiment examines the effectiveness of market-based strategies for mitigating wildfire losses. Subjects participate in a simulated market to make choices based on their risk tolerance. The experiment includes training markets and various rounds of decision-making. The results are used to calculate payoffs and evaluate the effectiveness of different strategies.
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Experiment To Examine Wildfire Risk Mitigation The following images are screen prints showing the user interface seen by subjects participating in the experimental markets for goods to mitigate risk of wildfire losses. A verbal description of the experiment design is also available. The first screens welcome the subject and prepare the subject to participate in the market.
In order to prepare the subjects for interacting with the software they are given an initial task to make simple selections using the mouse. These selections elicit information about the subject’s risk tolerance that is used a characteristic of the subject in econometric analyses. The subject makes choices between sure bets and increased payoffs at varying probabilities of winning. The results of the “game” are determined after the market experiment has ended.
The subjects will enter there market choices using an keypad shown on their screen. The next pages prepare the subject for that interface.
The next screens prepare the subject to participate in the market. The subjects step through the same instructions to maintain consistency across subjects and sessions. The first market has only one good available to mitigate wildfire risk. It is used as a training market to teach the subjects how to participate in the experimental market place.
Once a subject has completed the instructions they must wait for the other subjects to catch up. The experiment requires all subjects to participate in a decision making round at the same time in order to accommodate public goods and a shared fire outcome.
The first market consists of insurance only. Subject’s enter their choice with a mouse by clicking on the keypad shown in their screen.
While the subjects are waiting at the end of a round, the fire outcome is determined. Once all subjects are at the “wait screen” the proctor uses the bingo cage to draw a colored ball to determine the fire outcome. That outcome is entered into the server and new asset values are calculated for each subject. Then the subject page for the next round appears and the subjects participate in the market again, possibly with a lower asset value and therefore lower income.
After a few rounds of the simple market, the subject’s asset value is reset and the next market is explained. Each subject progresses through the instruction on their screens.
After a few rounds of the market with two goods, the subjects are ready for the complete market with all four goods. Asset values are reset and the instructions are shown.
The complex, four good market is repeated for 15 rounds. From the subject’s perspective it is 19 rounds, helping to eliminate anticipation of the final round. Now the subject is asked to provide demographic information about them.
Now it is time for the “game” to be played that was used to elicit risk attitudes. A subject is asked to roll a ten sided die to determine which of the game’s “opportunities is in play.
Then another subject rolls the die again to determine the winning number for the game.
The experiment is over and the payoffs are calculated. Each subject is presented with a screen itemizing their results and how much they will be paid in real dollars. The subject fills out a receipt for the amount shown and waits to be paid by the proctor. Subjects are asked to leave the area immediately after they are paid and not discuss the experiment.
