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BANK DEGROOF Presentation for VIVIUM Assurances Bruxelles Kinepolis 14 th October 2010. Mr. Thomas-Karl Palmblad 14th October 2010. Agenda. Introduction of Bank Degroof Introduction to Degroof’s Global Investment approach for VIVIUM Introduction of Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy
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BANK DEGROOFPresentation for VIVIUM Assurances Bruxelles Kinepolis14th October 2010 Mr. Thomas-Karl Palmblad 14th October 2010
Agenda • Introduction of Bank Degroof • Introduction to Degroof’s Global Investment approach for VIVIUM • Introduction of Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy • Q & A
Independent merchant Bank, founded in 1871, owned by its management 24.1 bn EUR in assets under management Asset management produces 80% of income Headcount 1000 Offices in Belgium (HQ), Luxembourg, Switzerland, France, Spain and Bahamas Bank Degroof
MANAGEMENT AND STAFF HAVE A STAKE IN THE GROUP’S SUCCESS 1. Senior management owns a majority stake in the bank. This gives them, in a long-term approach, a vital interest in the bank's performance and reputation Management & staff include(1) controlling stake held by Guimard Finance and the Philippson, Siaens, Schockert, Haegelsteen and Fontaine families, (2) active partners and (3) other members of management and staff 2. Financial partners includeCompagnie du Bois Sauvage, Parmafin (Theo Maes family), Luc Waucquez family, Levimmo and others. Own shares represent 1.19 % Managementand staff 63.85% Financialpartners and others 36.15%
BANK DEGROOF’S REPUTATION IS BUILT ON THE EXPERTISE MADE AVAILABLE TO ITS CLIENTS Private clients Public and private companies and their shareholders Institutional clients • Bank Degroof Brussel’s Institutional Portfolio Management department, Degroof Fund Managament Company and Degroof Gestion Institutionnelle (DGI) are the Degroof group's competence centres for institutional asset management • Management of EUR 15.9 billion in UCIs • Management of EUR 2.9 billion of institutional portfolios Financial markets • Long-established financial market player • Advice and sales to institutional clients in equities, bonds, undertakings for collective investment, listed derivatives and treasury management • A leading liquidity provider on Euronext Brussels UCI administration Private wealth management • Protect and grow • Full support at all stages of wealth creation • EUR 21.0 billion in assets under management Legal and patrimonial structuring • Specialists in legal, fiscal and inheritance structuring Credits & Structuring • Credit facilities as part of overall asset management relationships Corporate Finance • M&A expertise, recognized by various rankings • Dominant position in the issue of fairness opinions • One of the main financial advisers to the Belgian state and regional governments for privatisations and other major financial operations • Active role in private and public placements for private companies and companies listed on Euronext Brussels Credits & Structuring • Structured and tailor-made credits
OUR REPUTATION AND PROFESSIONAL APPROACH ENABLE US TO ATTRACT AND RETAIN HIGHLY COMPETENT PROFESSIONALS • Our culture is that of top grade professionals, working together in a climate of mutual trust and respect to produce optimal, lasting solutions for our clients • This culture provides a stability stimulating creative innovation • We favour a long-term approach, with close attention to financial fundamentals • For example, the average length of service of senior staff is 11.2 years
Bank Degroof = excellent performance thanks to • a clear and contrarian investment philosophy, • inspired by academic research and, that is translated • into disciplined investment processes by Teams • through a "fundamental-quantitative” approach • and with tight risk control
VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Management Styles Degroof Active Funds Selection of 4 Management Styles Global Low Global Medium Global High Equities Europe Behavioral Value VIVIUM Managed Funds 4 Compartments • Stability Fund • Balanced Fund • Dynamic Fund • Aggressive Fund Low Active Risk Level High
VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Managed Investment Processes 12 months return as at 30th September 2010 Return 1 Year : + 6.61% Return 1 Year : + 8.51% Return 1 Year : + 9.89% Return 1 Year : + 5.31% VIVIUM Managed Funds 4 Compartments • Stability Fund • Balanced Fund • Dynamic Fund • Aggressive Fund Low: 20% Equity Level High: 100%
VIVIUM, the switch to Degroof Active Managed Investment Processes Tracking Error 1.92% Vol. 5.29% Tracking Error 2.92% Vol. 9.8% Tracking Error 6.28% Vol. 15.5% Tracking Error 5% Vol. 19.7% VIVIUM Managed Funds 4 Compartments • Stability Fund • Balanced Fund • Dynamic Fund • Aggressive Fund Low: 20% Equity Level High: 100%
ASSET ALLOCATION ASSET ALLOC INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION • GLOBAL LOW • GLOBAL MEDIUM • GLOBAL HIGH • 3 RISK PROFILES
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION • MEDIUM = Flagship Management of Banque Degroof, 1.92 billion euros reflects the allocation strategy of medium risk OPTIMIZE THE RETURN • OBJECTIVE 1. Allocation between assets classes 80% OF THE RETURN 2. Diversification within every asset class 20% OF THE RETURN
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION Govies / Agencies Securitized Corporates Inflation linked Offices Commercial Residential Large caps Small caps Private Equity Flex Collar Hedge Funds Timber Currencies Deposits Commercial papers
ALLOCATION : MEDIUM(July 2010) ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION Low High
2. BENCHMARK ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION Low High
3. ALLOCATION TOOLS (ASSETS CLASSES) ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Leading indicators Consummer confidence Labour market New orders Inventories Profitability Real estate activity Credits • MACRO-ECONOMY • Growth: Europe, USA, Japan, Emerging countries • Inflation : • Short term interest • Long term interest • Exchange rates • Equity markets valorisations CPI, PPI Monetary aggegates Commodities prices World trade volume Labor cost
3. ALLOCATION TOOLS (ASSETS CLASSES) ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION INVESTMENT COMMITTEE FIXED INCOME COMMITTEE • BONDS ALLOCATION • - Duration/Positioning Real interest rate • Yield curve • - Govies-Inflation linked: Expected inflation • Credit: Corporate - govies: Rating/risk • Sectors • Countries FINANCIAL RATIOS - Price/Earnings - Earnings revision QUANTITATIVE TOOLS - Allocation Equity-Bonds: Risk premium - Allocation Blue-Small: Relative P/E
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 4. STRATEGY A. GLOBAL ALLOCATION • Slightly overweighted in equity • Underweighted in real estate • Lower bonds duration
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 4. STRATEGY B. EQUITY ALLOCATION • Underweighted in Japan
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 4. STRATEGY C. BOND ALLOCATION • Overweightedin corporate & securitized bonds
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 5. ASSET ALLOCATION: CONCLUSIONS Based on long term views
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 1. NON EQUITY CLASSES 2. EQUITY CLASSES • BONDS • FLEXIBLE COLLAR • CONVERTIBLE BONDS • HEDGE FUNDS • REAL ESTATE • COMMODITIES • OTHERS: TIMBER • STYLES: • INDEXED • VALUE • GROWTH • … • PRIVATE EQUITY
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 1. NON EQUITY CLASSES MEDIUM Cash 2% Bonds 16.5% Govies, 3.1% Inflation linked 2.4% Corporates 3.7% Securitized
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION 2. EQUITY CLASSES MEDIUM
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION PERFORMANCE DIVERSIFICATION DIVERSIFICATION: CONCLUSIONS Based on convictions, on medium term views
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE RISK CONTROL 1 MEDIUM Risk Control
ASSET ALLOCATION INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION DIVERSIFICATION PERFORMANCE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO +25.5% -10.1% +36.5% UPSIDE HIGHER THAN DOWNSIDE
Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy
Introduction to Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy • Unfortunately … Cumulative value of British shares between 1955 and 2001 You are here Source: “Capturing the Value Premium in the UK; 1955-2001” Dimson, Nagel & Quigley, LSE, January 2003
Introduction to Bank Degroof’s Behavioral Value strategy • 2. Quality of forecasting is a disaster Behavioral Value deals with these flaws through • Strong buying and selling discipline Obtained through a quantitative approach and improved bybehavioral criteria such as earnings revision momentum • Behavioral Value eliminates the analysts’ bias oflong term optimism By introducing mean reverting in the valuation model/business plan
Behavioral Value The Wheel of Fortune – where Degroof is
Market snapshot Source: Bloomberg 8th October 2010
Outlook • Comparison to previous crises Source: Lehman Brothers, Global Strategy Outlook, 7 December 2007
Outlook • Equities Performance US equities 12 months after bear market bottom Source: Global Financial Data
Contact details Thomas Palmblad, Institutional & Corporate Desk Rue de l’Industrie 44 1040 Bruxelles E-mail: TKP@degroof.be Phone: +32 2 287 93 27 www.degroof.be