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Evaluation of 2006 National Emission Ceilings Projections: Preliminary Results

This evaluation assesses the progress made towards meeting emission ceilings set in the National Emission Ceilings Directive of 2001. Analysis includes Member State projections, DTI assessment, and comparison with the GAINS model. Key findings highlight the progress made towards NOx, SO2, NMVOC, and NH3 emission ceilings.

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Evaluation of 2006 National Emission Ceilings Projections: Preliminary Results

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  1. Evaluation of projections submitted in 2006 national plans under the National Emission Ceilings Directive (preliminary results) Anne Wagner

  2. Progress towards emission ceilings • Analysis [Member State projections, DTI assessment, GAINS comparison] • NOx/ SO2/ NMVOC/ NH3 • Summary of key findings

  3. Analysis undertaken • Member States’ own projected emissions in 2010 have been analysed and compared against emission ceilings • A distance-to-target analysis has been undertaken to illustrate current progress to meeting emission ceilings • A comparison has been undertaken of GAINS model emission projections (using national energy projections) for 2010 against Member States’ own projections

  4. Summary – progress to ceilings (22 MS aggregated)

  5. Summary – progress to ceilings (22 MS aggregated)

  6. DTI example – NOx  DTI indicator DTI indicator DTI indicator  NOx emission ceiling

  7. NMVOC Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

  8. NH3 Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

  9. SO2 Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) & Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

  10. NOx Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

  11. Summary – progress to ceilings(1) • NMVOC emissions • MS projections: Denmark, France, Spain, Portugal project emission values exceeding their target; France will meet their ceiling under WAM • DTI analysis: majority of MS (19 out of the 23 considered) on track to meet their ceiling. Denmark, Spain, Portugal, and Poland are currently above their linear target path • GAINS comparison: GAINS estimates estimates tends to be lower than Member States’ projections in most cases. • NH3 emissions • MS projections: Germany and Spain will not meet their ammonia ceiling with current policies and measures. Germany will meet their ceiling under WAM • DTI analysis: majority of MS (19 out of 23) are currently on track to meet their emission ceiling. Finland, Denmark, Germany and Spain are currently above their linear target path, • GAINS comparison: Germany predicts exceedance while GAINS suggests otherwise. Slovakia, Denmark and Belgium all predict no exceedance; GAINS suggests otherwise

  12. Summary – progress to ceilings(2) • SO2 emissions • MS projections: Only Netherlands exceeds the emission ceiling in 2010 (even under WAM) • DTI analysis: Spain, Malta and Cyprus are above their linear path • GAINS comparison: analysis suggests that WM projection for France exceeds ceiling by over 30% • NOx emissions • MS projections: 10 / 22 countries exceeding ceiling under WM; Germany, Malta and Netherlands meet ceiling under WAM whereas Austria, Belgium, France exceed ceiling under WAM; Denmark, Italy, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden exceed ceiling under WM but do not provide WAM • DTI analysis: more than half of MS (mainly EU15) above target path. Of EU15 only Italy, Germany and Finland on target • GAINS comparison: estimates suggest that NOx ceilings may be even more difficult to meet than predicted

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