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* Center for Futures Studies (CEFU), EBS Business School, Germany

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011. Competitiveness Monitor: An integrated foresight platform for the German leading-edge cluster in logistics.

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* Center for Futures Studies (CEFU), EBS Business School, Germany

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  1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Competitiveness Monitor: An integrated foresight platform for the German leading-edge cluster in logistics Heiko von der Gracht*, Philipp Ecken*, Christoph Markmann*, Inga-Lena Darkow*, Gianluca De Lorenzis‡, Eckard Foltin†, David Hartmann†, Nadine Helfenbein‡, Michael Münnich§, Christopher Stillings† * Center for Futures Studies (CEFU), EBS Business School, Germany † Bayer MaterialScience AG, Germany ‡ dilotec GmbH, Germany § BrainNet Supply Management Consultants GmbH, Germany CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 1

  2. Competitiveness Monitor Agenda Germany‘s leading-edge cluster in logistics The need for futures orientation in logistics The Competitiveness Monitor Futures Platform Trend Database Future Workshop Prediction Market Conclusion 1 2 3 3a 3b 3c 3d 4 CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 2

  3. Competitiveness Monitor Germany’s leading-edge cluster in logistics (1/2) The “EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr” is Germany’s biggest research initiative in the area of logistics and supply chain management. • “EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr” • Started in June 2010 and runs for 5 years • Sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research • 120 companies, 11 universities and research institutes collaborate • 30 research projects in the are of logistics and supply chain management • 100 concrete innovations with an estimated market potential of 2 bn. EUR aspires Secure tomorrow’s individuality, in the sense of mobility and distribution, with 75% of today’s resources (ten Hompel, 2010) The content of this presentation is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s). CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 3

  4. Competitiveness Monitor 7. Activation of cluster potentials • share complementary resources and knowledge within the cluster • enable cooperation between parties in the cluster • provide future-relevant knowledge and tools to enable robust decision making Germany’s leading-edge cluster in logistics (2/2) The cluster tackles three central challenges through seven innovation schemes. tackled through Three central challenges Seven innovation schemes Facilitate individuality Manage resources efficiently Secure urban supply (Source: ECM, 2010) CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 4

  5. Competitiveness Monitor The need for futures orientation in logistics (1/2) The future of the logistics industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges that require innovation and future oriented planning. Challenges for logistics (abstract) • Globalization: Supply chains have become longer and more complex. (Meixell and Gargeya 2005; Jain and Benyoucef 2008; Bhatnagar and Teo 2009) • Competition: Factors like Globalization, outsourcing and pluralistic society amplify this. • Customer expectations: Logistics has to be responsive (e.g. through added values) to adapt quickly to current market demands. (Dominic, Goh et al. 2010; Gunasekaran, Lai et al. 2008; Briggs, Landry et al. 2010) • Technology: Logistics act in complex networks of independent, but interdependent organizations, which require intelligent solutions. (Jain and Benyoucef 2008; Bhatnagar and Teo 2009) lead to Increased volatility and uncertainty requiring innovation and future oriented planning. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 5

  6. Competitiveness Monitor The need for futures orientation in logistics (2/2) In best practice, both innovation management and futures research are linked and contribute to each other. The importance of innovations in logistics • Drivers for growth and competitive advantage across all industries. (Chapman, Soosay et al. 2003) • Adapt services, products, and processes to changing customers and markets. (Yazdanparast, Manuj et al. 2010) • Help to reduce logistics cost and allow for differentiation. Being competent in both innovation management and futures research is perhaps the most important source of competitive advantage for organisations in tomorrow’s knowledge economy (Hines 2002; von der Gracht, Vennemann et al. 2010) CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 6

  7. Competitiveness Monitor The Competitiveness Monitor (1/6) The Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo) is a joint research project aiming to create and convey future-oriented knowledge within the “EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr” • Comprises a future-oriented IT platform where science, business, and politics co-operate. • Addresses the need for innovative foresight methods in strategic logistics planning. • Facilitates this in an innovative environment provided by the leading-edge cluster. CoMo is not only an innovation by itself but establishes a direct link between the futures field, the cluster, and innovation management for 100 innovations of the future. 4 major challenges for CoMo • Stimulating co-operation among cluster stakeholders. • Providing educative information on futures studies and teaching future skills; • Incentivizing stakeholders to systematically deal with their futures and to foster innovation; • Creating, linking, and processing information about future macro- and microeconomic developments in logistics and its environment; CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 7

  8. Competitiveness Monitor The Competitiveness Monitor (2/6) The CoMo solves these challenges by integrating and interlinking three foresight tools in a Futures Platform. Project status: Requirement Analysis 1. Futures Platform (+ education package) 4. Prediction Markets 3. Future Workshop 2. Trend Database Link Transfer CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 8

  9. Competitiveness Monitor The Competitiveness Monitor (3/6) Our Futures Platform is intended to serve as the users’ personalized login portal. • Allows interactive individualization according to • interest by e.g. saving trend favourites. • Enables direct communication. • Links the three applications Trend Database, • Future Workshop, and Prediction Market. • Provides training content for self-studies. The flexible and individualized structure offers an individual decision making environment. The cooperative nature of the platform shall increase transparency and access to knowledge for all stakeholders in the cluster. Newcomers to foresight can use the platform to build up foresight competencies and reduce uncertainty in future-oriented decisions. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 9

  10. Competitiveness Monitor The Competitiveness Monitor (4/6) Our Trend Database concept represents the quantitative and qualitative pool of future-relevant knowledge that is provided to and provided by the cluster actors. • Query future-oriented numbers, data, and facts to • specific logistics-related topics. • Query results filtered through a chosen ‘flight level’ • e.g. geographical scope. • Ability to export or save information in a personal space. • Co-creation and lead users involve in sustaining relevancy of future-relevant knowledge.(Kane and Fichman 2009; Leimeister, Huber et al. 2009) • A three-dimensional semantic linkage architecture links trends, tools, and external information. The linkage of data points can build a more holistic picture of the future. The possibility to acknowledge trends early and systematically creates significant competitive advantages for the cluster in the field of logistics. Combining expert foresight knowledge and wisdom of the crowds can build a holistic construct of the future for a stakeholder in the cluster. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 10

  11. Competitiveness Monitor The Competitiveness Monitor (5/6) Our Future Workshop app represents the element of CoMo where trends are systematically projected into individual futures and recommended actions can be derived. • Web-based solution of the four phases (preparation, • critique, fantasy, implementation) of a future workshop • (“Zukunftswerkstatt”). (Jungk and Muellert 1988) • Best practices from elements of scenario planning, • roadmapping, backcasting, and Imagineering. • (De Laat 2004; Quist and Vergragt 2006; Nijs 2009; von der Gracht and Darkow 2010; Höjer, Gullberg et al. 2011) • Digitally collaborate in global or private workshop environments. • Results of Future Workshops are e.g. recommended actions. Decision makers can actively shape their futures combining qualitative and quantitative information to build a robust decision space. Future Workshops will facilitate a future-oriented strategic logistics planning. Spatial boundaries in a process of problem identification, innovation, and creativity towards problem solving are overcome. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 11

  12. Competitiveness Monitor The Competitiveness Monitor (6/6) Our Prediction Market app will complement Future Workshops and the Trend Database by providing an innovative foresight method that generates futures knowledge. • Bet on the outcome of future events in a virtual • environment. • Users lose and gain virtual credits according to their forecast • accuracy, which incentivizes participation and accuracy. • (Coles, Lakhani et al. 2007; Ho and Chen 2007) • Global and private Prediction Markets will assess company specific as well as cluster related topics. Prediction Markets will represent an innovative, flexible, and robust forecasting method that incentivizes and systematically supports in future-oriented decisions Potential benefits from investment decisions, idea management, or market developments can be evaluated effectively and cooperatively. A link with the Trend Database increases overall future-knowledge in the cluster. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 12

  13. Competitiveness Monitor Conclusion The CoMo solves these challenges by integrating and interlinking three foresight tools in a Futures Platform. • In the context of the ambitious innovations developed in the leading-edge cluster it is essential to provide a platform that utilizes the cluster’s unique combination. • 130 partners from business, academia, and politics may share complementary resources, specifically may share knowledge that is relevant for their future-oriented decisions. • The CoMo will provide an IT environment that integrates three innovative foresight tools in order to aid in strategic planning and future-oriented decision making for logistics and related topics. • The combination of a Trend Database, Future Workshops, and a Prediction Markets will facilitate cooperation, will provide a shared future-relevant knowledge basis, and will provide individual future-oriented decision support. • CoMo contributes to the superior aim of the leading-edge cluster by fostering stakeholders’ future-oriented decision quality. • CoMo contributes to the sustainable success of innovations and competitive advantages of stakeholders in the leading-edge cluster in logistics. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 13

  14. Competitiveness Monitor References Bhatnagar, R. and C.-C. Teo (2009). "Role of logistics in enhancing competitive advantage: A value chain framework for global supply chains." International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management 39: 202-226. Briggs, E., T. D. Landry, et al. (2010). "Investigating the influence of velocity performance on satisfaction with third party logistics service." Industrial Marketing Management 39(4): 640-649. Chapman, R. L., C. Soosay, et al. (2003). "Innovation in logistic services and the new business model: A conceptual framework." International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management 33(7): 630 - 650. Coles, P. A., K. R. Lakhani, et al. (2007). "Prediction Markets at Google." Harvard Business School Case. De Laat, B. (2004). Conditions for effectiveness of roadmapping: A cross-sectional analysis of 80 different roadmapping exercises. Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, European Commission DG JRC-IPTS. Dominic, P. D. D., K. N. Goh, et al. (2010 ). "The importance of service quality for competitive advantage – with special reference to industrial product." International Journal of Business Information Systems 6(3): 378 - 397 ECM (2010). 100 innovationen für die Logistik von morgen. Mülheim an der Ruhr, Dortmund, EffizienzCluster Management GmbH. Gunasekaran, A., K.-h. Lai, et al. (2008). "Responsive supply chain: A competitive strategy in a networked economy." Omega 36(4): 549-564. Hines, A. (2002). "A practitioner's view of the future of futures studies." Futures 34: 337-347. Ho, T.-H. and K.-Y. Chen (2007). "New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets " California Management Review 50(1): 144-158. Höjer, M., A. Gullberg, et al. (2011). "Backcasting images of the future city--Time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm." Technological Forecasting and Social Change In Press, Corrected Proof. Jain, V. and L. Benyoucef (2008). "Managing long supply chain networks: some emerging issues and challenges." Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management 19(4): 469 - 496. Jungk, R. and N. Muellert (1988). Future workshops: How to Create Desirable Futures. . London, Institute for Social Inventions. Kane, G. and R. Fichman (2009). "The Shoemaker's Children: Using Wikis for Information Systems Teaching, Research, and Publication." Management Information Systems Quarterly 33(1): 1-22. Leimeister, J. M., M. J. Huber, et al. (2009). "Leveraging Crowdsourcing: Activation-Supporting Components for IT-Based Ideas Competition." Journal of Management Information Systems 26(10): 187-224. Meixell, M. J. and V. B. Gargeya (2005). "Global supply chain design: A literature review and critique." Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 41(6): 531-550. Nijs, D. E. L. W. (2009). Imagineering: Towards a design approach to transform the enterprise logic. White paper in the context of the PhD-study under supervision of Prof. dr. ir. J.M.L. van Engelen. Groningen, The Netherlands, University of Groningen, Faculty Economy and Business Administration, Innovation Management and Strategy. Quist, J. and P. Vergragt (2006). "Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework." Futures 38(9): 1027-1045. ten Hompel, M. (2010). 100 innovationen für die Logistik von morgen. Berlin, BVL Congress, LogistikRuhr e.V. von der Gracht, H. A. and I.-L. Darkow (2010). "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025." International Journal of Production Economics 127: 46-59. von der Gracht, H. A., R. Vennemann, et al. (2010). "Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management: A Portfolio-Approach in Evaluating Organizational Development." Futures - The journal of policy, planning and futures studies 42(4): 380-393. Yazdanparast, A., I. Manuj, et al. (2010). "Co-creating logistics value: a service-dominant logic perspective." The International Journal of Logistics Management 21(3): 375 - 403. CEFU, EBS Business School, Germany; April 2011 14

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