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Seeds for the panel discussion

International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan” 27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo. Seeds for the panel discussion. K. Z. Nanjo (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo). Seeds. Proposed “Rules of the game” Preparation for model submission How to access data Publication

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Seeds for the panel discussion

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  1. International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan” 27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo Seeds for the panel discussion K. Z. Nanjo (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

  2. Seeds • Proposed “Rules of the game” • Preparation for model submission • How to access data • Publication • How to access experimental results

  3. Proposed “Rules of the game” • Testing regions • Default regions (d≤30km) with grid spacing s=0.1° • Invite test regions • Testing classes (Invite forecast models) • 1-day forecast • 1-year forecast • 5-year forecast • Future earthquakes that will be forecast: • The revised JMA bulletin. No declustering. • Number of earthquakes in a predefined time window for each magnitude bin in the range 5.0≤M≤9.0 (0.1 magnitude unit steps) at each predefined grid node within a predefined testing region. • Forecast evaluation methods • CSEP suite • Invite forecast evaluation methods

  4. 1. Default all Japan with d≤30km • 2. Same with d≤100km Proposal 3. Kanto with d≤100km • Test regions • 1. inland Japan (d≤30km, s=0.1°) • 2. All Japan (d≤100km, s=0.1°) • 3. Kanto (d≤100km, s=0.05°) • Two layers: 0-30 & 30-100 km • Test classes • 1 day: code submission • 3 months: code submission • 1 yrs; table or code submission • 3 a • 5 yrs: table or code submission) • Start time of the forecast periods • 01/09/2009 for all the classes • Model & table submission deadline • 01/08/2009 for all the classes 4. Off Ibaraki with d≤100km proposed by Matsumura (not considered in the experiment) • Target Magnitude • M=4.0-9.0 • M=5.0-9.0

  5. Proposal • Evaluation methods • CSEP official suite • Imoto’s likelihood method

  6. Depth histograms All Japan M>2 events in 2007 50% for d≤30km 80% for d≤60km 88% for d≤90km 90% for d≤120km Kanto M>2 events in 2007 40% for d≤30km 78% for d≤60km 88% for d≤90km 93% for d≤120km

  7. MC=0.6 MC maps for seismicity in 2007 d≤30-60 km • GR-based EMR method (Woessner & Wiemer, 2005) • MC: magnitude at the deviation from the GR law • Collect the 200 nearest events to each node d≤0-30 km d≤60-90 km d≤90-120 km

  8. Japan (JMA) All Japan CA (ANSS: 31-43°, 115-126°) Annual number of earthquakes • Kanto

  9. Preparation for model submission • Output • Grid node list: Forecast seismicity rates at location in the list • ForecastML: Output a numerical table containing the forecast rates in the format according the template • Helpful stuff (D. Schorlemmer) • A template to convert data to Forecast ML formatted table • Guideline for preparing a forecast model (CSEP webpage) • Submission • Program codethatcan create a data file formatted in the ForecastML • ForecastML formatted table • Each modeler and the Testing Center will work on a case-by-case basis on finding a solution

  10. How to access data • Idea • Modelers may need the JMA data and/or GPS data for their model optimization and other purpose before model submission • How to access and share both data • H. Tsuruoka, ERI

  11. Publication • Journal: Special issue in “Earth, Planet, Space” • Idea • Special issue in SRL 2007 for the RELM testing • Planned special issue in Ann. Geophys. for the Italian CSEP testing in 2009 • Proposed contents • Preface • Result of the Japan testing since 2008 summer • Completeness study for Japan • Submitted forecast models • Submitted evaluation methods • Exploring the possibility of next-generation models • Proposed deadline for submission: 31/03/2010 • Number of expected papers

  12. How to access experimental results • Open to researchers but close to the public while models are under test • Password-protected webpage

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