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NCAR Sustainable Technologies

&. NCAR Sustainable Technologies. Tools to Understand and Predict processes and changes in the Earth System Dr. Tim Killeen, NCAR Director February 28, 2007. Walter Orr Roberts.

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NCAR Sustainable Technologies

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  1. & NCAR Sustainable Technologies Tools to Understand and Predict processes and changes in the Earth System Dr. Tim Killeen, NCAR Director February 28, 2007 NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  2. Walter Orr Roberts “I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.” The late Walter Orr Roberts was the founding director of NCAR NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  3. What is NCAR? The National Center for Atmospheric Research NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  4. NCAR: The National Center for Atmospheric Research Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – January 2006 • National Science Foundation funded Center, >1,000 Scientists and engineers, 47 year history • Earth System Sciences: Computational and Observational Science and facilities for Weather, Climate, Chemistry, Space Weather, Society-Environment Interactions NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  5. Our Management & Our Sponsor • UCAR - The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • NCAR’s manager • A non-profit consortium of over 100 university members and affiliates founded in 1960 to enhance the capabilities of the universities and to focus on scientific problems that are beyond the scale of a single university • NSF - The National Science Foundation • NCAR’s primary sponsor • An independent federal agency created by Congress in 1950 “to promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; to secure the national defense” NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  6. Understanding Earth Systems Understanding & planning for natural and human-induced impacts on our planet NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  7. Recent Contribution to Climate Change Knowledge • NCAR’s role - to constantly improve our understanding of the Earth System, to benefit society • 2007 IPCC’s 4th Assessment report • Established by WMO & UNEP to assess scientific and technical and socio- economic information relevant for understanding climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. • Used by governments world-wide for planning • NCAR scientists served as coordinating lead authors & contributing authors • NCAR developed one of the major predictive models used in the IPCC IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  8. IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers: Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale features, continuing currently observed trends: • warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least over Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean) • snow cover will contract • widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions • sea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late summer sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st century • very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent • likely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense • extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward • precipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions • Very likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is 25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century. Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  9. IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers Model results confirm the importance of human-produced emissions in the temperature trends of recent decades. NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  10. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 25 0.1770.052 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 150 0.0450.012 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  11. Human Well-being Human well-being rests on a foundation of three pillars, the preservation & enhancement of all 3 of which constitute the core responsibilities of society: • economic conditions and processes such as employment, income, wealth, markets, trade, productive technologies… • sociopolitical conditions and processes such as law & order, national & homeland security, governance, justice, education, health care, science, culture & the arts, liberty, privacy… • environmental conditions and processes such as air, water, soils, mineral resources, the biota, nutrient cycles, climatic processes… slide credit: John Holdren NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  12. Economic Well-being • U.S. disaster costs are increasing • Individual events can inflict staggering human suffering and dollar losses totaling tens of billions • Property destruction and business disruption due to natural disasters now rival warfare in terms of loss. • Based on recent experience, 85% of natural disasters will be weather or climate related (the other 15% will be geophysical.) • Events like these will lead to increasingly severe economic, social, and political consequences—at the local, state, and federal levels • Losses of life and economic health can be mitigated by prediction, preparation, and planning for adaptation NCAR research, and its resulting products, are assisting decision-makers to do just that NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  13. Sustainability: The World is Taking Notice • United Nations Millennium Goals (2015) • People, from environmental to religious groups, are asking… “What can we do?”--- and taking action! NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  14. U.S. Corporations, Cities & States are signing on to Sustainability Initiatives NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  15. How will we plan, react, & adapt to a changing environment NCAR Research Products NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  16. Examples of NCAR Products Enhancing Safe, Prosperous & Sustainable Living • Existing Tools • CLIMATE: CCSM (Community Climate Systems Model)Planning for the impacts of climate change • WEATHER: WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting Model)Predicting severe weather events to minimize costly devastation to human life and business assets • BIOHAZARDS: Pentagon-ShieldProtecting the U.S. Government from Biohazards & Terrorism • SOLAR MEASUREMENT: Measuring Coronal Magnetic Fields Toward improving solar prediction • ROAD SAFETY: Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Providing safe travel for business & recreation • POLLUTION: Forecasting Pollution PlumesResearch & tools for understanding & predicting pollution’s effects • AIR TRAVEL SAFETY: Clear Air Turbluelnce PredictionHelping pilots avoid dangerous turbulence • FACILITIES & COMPUTING: NCAR’s Gulf Stream V Aircraft & Supercomputing FacilitiesProviding Tools for the Research Community • Emerging Needs • SOCIETAL IMPACTS: North American Regional Climate Assessment ProgramAssisting decision-makers in regional climate-change planning • REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION: NRCM (The Nested Regional Climate Model) Providing regional “specifics” on changing environments to assist decision-making in your neighborhood NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  17. CLIMATE: The Community Climate Systems Model This simulation estimates potential global change using a coupled climate model that has interactive atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice components. • The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a coupled climate model for simulating the earth's climate system • Composed of four separate but coupled models simultaneously simulating the earth's atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea-ice, the CCSM allows researchers to conduct fundamental research into the earth's past, present and future climate states. NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  18. WEATHER: The Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) 72-hour precipitation forecast: February 27 - March 2, 2007 • WRF Model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system • Serves both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs • Developed at NCAR, now in operational use at NOAA, the US Air Force and multiple foreign countries and agencies • Suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  19. BIOHAZARDS: The Pentagon Shield Program • One of a series of antiterrorism products • Theme: to provide information about winds, temperature, humidity, and other weather conditions, so security officials can predict the path of a toxic plume and quickly evacuate people • Models provide real time data, thereby providing Pentagon officials with detailed information about the local atmosphere and any signs of a toxic release • Lower, left. Radial velocity field observed by WindTracer assists in prediction of path & velocity of plume NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  20. SOLAR MEASUREMENT: Measuring Coronal Magnetic Fields: COSMO • COSMO suite is a large aperture coronagraph with instrumentation to measure coronal magnetic fields • Magnetism dominates the structure and dynamics of the solar corona. • Reliable measurements of the coronal magnetic field strength and orientation have been difficult due to the weakness of coronal magnetic fields • Using a very sensitive infrared spectropolarimeter, developed at NCAR, to observe the strong near-infrared coronal emission line above active regions, scientists have succeeded in measuring the 3-D magnetic fields of the solar corona for the first time NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  21. ROAD SAFETY: Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) • Assists road maintenance crews in making efficient snow and ice removal decisions • Using multiple weather forecasts and minute-by-minute road temperatures collected by trucks and pavement thermometers, a computer can tell plow drivers where to go, and how much and which types of de-icers to use NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  22. POLLUTION: Forecasting Pollution Plumes • Atmospheric chemistry field campaign flight planning is aided by the ability to forecast the occurrence of pollution plumes • A pollution plume predictive capability was provided by the assimilation of near-real-time experimental carbon monoxide data from satellite observations (MOPPITT)into the MOZART chemical transport model • This clearly indicated the intercontinental transport pathways of pollution from Chinese industry and south Asian biomass burning, guiding aircraft flight tracks NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  23. AIR TRAVEL SAFETY: Helping Pilots Avoid Deadly Clear Air Turbulence • Clear Air Turbulence is a small-scale, short-lived meteorological phenomenon • Difficult to predict using current numerical models • Creates flight dangers • Use of multivariate, nonlinear, statistical models improves the forecast of turbulence potential consiberably • Indices of turbulence potential are derived and correlated to likelihood of encountering turbulence • Improves air travel safety NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  24. FACILITIES: NCAR’s HIAPER Aircraft & Supercomputing Facilities • Aircraft • High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) • A modified Gulfstream V jet, HIAPER is designed to fly at the cutting-edge of scientific research for the next several decades. • Computing • 12-Teraflop IBM Supercomputer for Improved Climate and Weather Research recently installed • peak performance of 12 teraflops, sustained performance of as much as 2 teraflops NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  25. SOCIETAL IMPACTS: NARCAPP: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program • NARCCAP is an international program that includes principal investigators from Canada and the UK. • It aims to produce multiple high-resolution climate change scenarios for most of North America. • This program will provide output to the climate analysis community for in-depth regional analyses of climate change. NCAR researchers are developing new approaches to fine-scale computer modeling to allow greater focus on regional impacts of a changing climate. NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  26. REGIONAL CLIMATE: The Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) Whole-Year Visualization of Precipitable Water for 1996 • A major component of NCAR's Prediction Across Scales program is the development of a nested regional climate model (NCRM). • Seamlessly integrate the weather and climate models in NCAR to capture all important spatial and temporal scales • Assists decision-makers to plan for regional climate changes NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  27. NCAR’s Development Process How do NCAR’s research applications become commercial tools? NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  28. Emergency Response Ensemble Predictions GIS Integration Coastal Environments From Scientific Analysis to End-user Information Systems NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  29. Avenues for commercial tech-transfer:The UCAR Foundation • Created in 1986 to be UCAR’s agent for technology commercialization • Operates as an IRS 501(c)(3) not-for-profit subsidiary corporation in the state of Colorado • A portion of foundation proceeds is returned to UCAR and NCAR for the advancement of its scientific and technical programs • Success Stories: • STAR Institute • Peak Weather Technologies • Witi Corporation • ARC (Advanced Radar Corporation) NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  30. Summary • NCAR provides facilities to the national research community • NCAR conducts pathfinding integrative research into the earth system and the human interactions with that system • Numerous avenues are opening to provide the knowledge and tools needed by society to address pressing issues for societal development • NCAR works through partnerships: with universities, other research labs around the world. • Come visit, we are open to the public throughout the year! NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

  31. Resources for further information • Community Climate Systems Model: http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu • Weather Research & Forecasting Model: http://wrf-model.org • Pentagon Shield Program: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/shield/ • Measuring Coronal Magnetic Fields: http://www.cosmo.ucar.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=42 • Maintenance Decision Support System: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/rdwx_mdss/ • MIRAGE (Modeling pollutant dispersion): http://mirage-mex.acd.ucar.edu/Modeling/ • Clear Air Turbulence: http://www.image.ucar.edu/~tebaldi/talks/gtpgsp.pdf • Facilities & Computing: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/shield/technology/mei_2004urb.htm and http://www.cisl.ucar.edu/news/06/1103.blueice.jsp • NARCAPP: http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2006/science/protecting/protecting_priority4_1.php • Nested Regional Climate Model: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/modeling/nrcm/index.php NREL presentation - February 28, 2007

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