TMI Annual Conference Oxford, 11 Oct 2007 - “Shaping Up to Climate Change:

1. TMI Annual Conference Oxford, 11 Oct 2007 - “Shaping Up to Climate Change: From Cannes to Cleethorpes" Tom Buncle Managing Director, Yellow Railroad Yellow Railroad

2. Presentation Outline • The Science • Implications for UK Tourism • Destination Management – What Can You Do? • Maintaining a Sense of Perspective Yellow Railroad

3. 1. The Science Yellow Railroad

4. The Science Global • Global changes in 100 years • Aral Sea: – 75% in 40 years • Mt. Kilimanjaro: – 80% snow cover in 100 years • Coral reefs: – 40% destroyed/depleted • Alpine glaciers: – 10% in 2003 alone • Lake Chad: – 95% in 44 years - 25,000 500 sq miles - Fish stocks: 230,000 50,000 tonnes - Bago: waterfront town desert Yellow Railroad

5. The Science UK • Hotter, drier summers • Wetter winters • Heavier rainfall (intensity vs. volume) • Less snow • Sea level rise • Greater extremes (storms, sea surge, summer heat) Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Yellow Railroad

6. The Science UK: Regional Differences • Southeast temp increases more than north • South/southeast = Mediterranean climate? • North = comfortable or too wet? + Yellow Railroad

7. The Science – 4 Scenarios (UK) • Low, medium – low, medium – high, high • 2020, 2050, 2080 • Worst case (2080) : - temperature + 1-5 c - summers 35-50% drier - winters 10 – 35% wetter Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP); Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Yellow Railroad

8. The Science: Temperature Change 2020s 2050s 2080s Yellow Railroad Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios

9. The Science: Precipitation 2020s 2050s 2080s Yellow Railroad Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios

10. 2. Implications for UK Tourism Yellow Railroad

11. Implications for UK Tourism All good news ……..? • Warmer summers • Longer season • Domestic increase • Steal market from Mediterranean ? Yellow Railroad

12. Implications for UK Tourism But what about impact on: • Market demand • Product capacity • Infrastructure / transport • Urban vs.rural • Different regional impacts • Attractions & activities • Wildlife • Health & safety • Business costs Yellow Railroad

13. Implications for UK Tourism Market demand • Longer season • Outdoor activities, esp. watersports • Family appeal • Mediterranean resorts - south ? (31o = comfort level) • Café culture • Lighter menus More visitors = congestion, environmental degradation, changing preferences, changing market mix Yellow Railroad

14. Implications for UK Tourism Product impact • Footpath erosion • Rising sea level = coastal erosion • Shelter – from rain & sun • Air conditioning • Water shortage ? • Decline in indoor attractions ? • No winter sports – Scotland • Higher food prices (grain – meat) Yellow Railroad

15. Implications for UK Tourism Infrastructure(flooding, heat, fire, storms): • Road: subsidence, melted tarmac, flooding = safety, delays • Rail: landslides, buckled rails = closure, speed restrictions (cf. 2003) • Air: subsidence, melted asphalt, flooding, road access = delays Yellow Railroad

16. Implications for UK Tourism Infrastructure(flooding, heat, fire, storms): • Natural environment: increased fire risk, algae bloom, increased river pollution – flow rate….. = emergency services, country code • Planning policy: open space, greenery, water in cities = cooler ; storm drains; emergency planning Yellow Railroad

17. Implications for UK Tourism Business Costs • Insurance premiums • Maintenance & repair / renewal • Lower heating costs? • New equipment (e.g. aircon, lighter duvets etc.) • New products (e.g. outdoor eating, activities) • Training (e.g. food hygiene, safety) Yellow Railroad

18. Implications for UK Tourism Other • Food: longer growing season = local produce (1900 - 2000: + 30 days)*; newvarieties (e.g. wine); But …… drought, floods, late frost: root damage, crop pests, livestock disease? • Wildlife: species migration, greater biodiversity? • Flora: Arctic/Alpine flora decline • Health & Safety: mosquitoes,malaria, bacterial paradise, food poisoning, heatstroke, disease; protective clothing? Yellow Railroad * Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios

19. 3. Destination Management: What Can You Do? Yellow Railroad

20. Behaviour Change …..? • Words vs. action: 2/3 talk vs. 1/3 action Levers: • Social conscience • Economic self-interest • Legislation Yellow Railroad

21. Destination Management - Actions • Plan • Persuade politicians • Partnership • Risk assessment • Tourism policy: “climate –proof” • Marketing strategy (e.g. high value, low impact, “green visitors”) • Green accreditation scheme • Reduce, re-use, recycle Yellow Railroad

22. Conclusion • More opportunity than threat but……… • Variable by region and product • Prepare – “climate proof” !! Yellow Railroad

23. 4. Maintaining a Sense of Perspective Yellow Railroad

24. A Sense of Perspective • Food miles • Air travel • Car travel Yellow Railroad

25. A Sense of Perspective Carbon emissions • 33% - from energy industries • 25% - from driving • ??? % from manufacturing ? • 4 - 6% - from tourism * • 1% - from aircraft (c. 1.6% in UK) Source: UNWTO “Climate Change & Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges” & Stern Report 2006 Yellow Railroad

26. A Sense of Perspective Food Miles • UK farms less energy efficient than developing world • UK farmers receive £ 0.50p subsidy p. litre of diesel • 85% of energy used in distribution occurs after arrival in UK • UK consumers produce 30x more emissions than East Africans VS. Yellow Railroad

27. A Sense of Perspective Carbon per tonne • Lamb: UK – 2,849 kg vs. NZ – 688kg • Apples: “Green” = buy British in autumn-winter / imported in spring-summer (storage) • Roses: Holland @ 0.5kg p. stem vs. Kenya @ 2.9kg p. stem (= 17% of Dutch emissions) Source: Lincoln University, New Zealand Yellow Railroad

28. A Sense of Perspective Employment • Tourism = 10% jobs worldwide • Tourism often only hope in developing countries • Kenyan flower workers = 70,000 1m in related trades* • Blue Skies (fruit importer) - 1,500 employed in Ghana * Source: Panos Institute, London Nov 2006 Yellow Railroad

29. A Sense of Perspective Aviation • Aviation = fastest growing source of carbon emissions But….. • Technology advance = fuel efficiency (Boeing 787 = 27% more fuel efficient than A 340) * Source: Panos Institute, London Nov 2006 Yellow Railroad

30. A Sense of Perspective We need a “climate change balance sheet”: VS. Yellow Railroad

31. Further Information • UK Climate Impacts Programme: www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios • Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research: www.tyndall.ac.uk • Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research: www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre • Sustainability Northwest/Northwest Development Agency: www.snw.org.uk/tourism • Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership: www.sccip.org.uk Yellow Railroad

32. Tom Buncle Yellow Railroad tom@yellowrailroad.com www.yellowrailroad.com Yellow Railroad