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Model of a Virus Outbreak on a Contained Population

This project aims to accurately model the progression of known virus outbreaks, such as Ebola, Avian Flu, and Spanish Flu, to help predict and react appropriately to future outbreaks. The project involves defining variables, running simulations, and analyzing results. Various iterations of the project incorporate different elements such as considering age, infection rates, death rates, and incorporating lag. However, some challenges include optimizing performance for large sample sizes and adjusting parameters for modeling known viruses.

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Model of a Virus Outbreak on a Contained Population

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  1. Model of a Virus Outbreak on a Contained Population CJ Cahill TJHSST Computer Systems Lab 2008-2009

  2. Purpose • Predict how future outbreaks will progress • Help people react appropriately

  3. Subject • Several known viruses • Ebola • Avian Flu • Spanish Flu • Possibly things like AIDS and SARS

  4. Goals • Correctly model several known viruses • Models of unknown viruses make sense

  5. Procedure • 2 parts • Determine values of variables • Run program and analyze results • Tweak program to make the tests accurate

  6. Project 1 • Used a simple array length 10000 • Infected person could only infect neighbors

  7. Project 2 • Used ArrayLists for several things • Live people • Infected people • Empty slots • Incorporating age of each person • Infected person can still only infect neighbors

  8. Project 3 • Same ArrayLists as Project 2 • Each infected person has a chance to infect one uninfected person • Both infection rate and death rate depend on the current percent of sick/dead people • Incorporated lag

  9. Problems • When there’s a large sample size the program runs slowly • When trying to model known viruses the parameters don’t work perfectly

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