Complexity, dynamic systems and risk: The science and engineering of sustainability

1. Complexity,  dynamic  systems  and  risk:  The  science  and  engineering  of  sustainability Carol Boyle Director International Centre for Sustainability Engineering and Research University of Auckland

2. Sustainability Ensuring the needs of the current generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations 4 generations = 100 years

3. Athens – 7000 yrs old London 2000 yrs ago Prague 2000 yrs old Existing Cities Damascus – 5000 yrs old

4. Easter Island Machu Pichu New Orleans Mesa Verde Unsustainable Cities

5. Goals and Assumptions for the Future Goals Humans will be here Current cities will be here Assumptions Materials and energy will still be required Human basic needs will not have changed

6. Facing Reality We are dealing with complex systems which have multiple external and internal interactions and feedbacks Both spatial boundaries and time framesare locality and system dependant We don’t know the limits or thresholds of most environmental or social systems These systems are dynamic, changing over space and time

7. Lunar Gravitation Complex Hydrological Environment Geological/ Geographical Environment Climate/ Weather Social System Chemical Environment Biological Environment Solar Energy

8. Social System NGOs Communities Businesses Local Governments Social System Institutions Central Government Public Service

9. return

10. Dynamic Systems Systems and system components respond to fellow systems and components in unique ways but follow general rules and are bounded by system limitations Systems adjust to new situations As systems evolve, they become larger, more complex and the systems generally become more efficient They exhibit fractal characteristics, not only in spatial scale but also in temporal scale They evolve in unusual and unpredictable ways and exhibit emergence

11. Complexity and Chaos Order Complexity Chaos Random No rules Strict rules Edge of Chaos

12. Dynamic Systems Feedback influences system behaviour but feedback may be delayed by varying amounts, increasing the complexity of the dynamic behaviour The system is defined by the environmental and social parameters which usually fluctuate within limits; should the system parameters exceed those limits, the system attractor changes and the system either fails or evolves into another system Both environmental and human systems exhibit self organisation, which assists in maintaining the system within its limits

13. The self organisation nature of complex systems results in a probability distribution Atmospheric convection – the Lorenzo attractor

14. System Needs Each system has basic needs in order to be maintained For humans, we have both physical and psychological needs While many system needs are obvious, others may be quite obscure and others are closely interlinked Systems which have multiple sources or ways of managing their needs have inherent resilience so are not at the same risk as systems with single sources Sustainability is focused on the provision of needs to ensure that social systems are sustained

15. Survival By ensuring we are meeting basic needs, we are only ensuring the survival of human kind This is a threshold below which we start to see degradation in human health, increasing infant and child mortality, decreased life span, loss of social cohesion and increasing civil unrest We need a better understanding of system limits to provide for those needs so we can ensure we do not fall below that threshold

16. Systems and Probability While the future of the systems cannot be specifically identified some level of probability can be determined The risk of the system moving outside its boundaries needs to be identified Issues: Variables within natural and human systems lie within a range; they tend to be fuzzy Variables are dependant on local conditions Linkages are highly varied and dependant on local conditions and local systems

17. Sustainability of Systems The systems which make up society and which support human survival need to be better identified and understood including: The overall dynamics of the systems and the linkages between systems The risks to those systems, the implications of those risks and risk mitigations measures

18. Risk - Knowns and Unknowns Known Probability & Consequence Some Unknowns Either Probabilities or Consequences Unknowns Both Probabilities & Consequences Widget failure Risk of accident Pollution Climate Change Peak Oil Tipping points Societal collapse Asteroid strike ?

19. The Science of Sustainability Sustainability: meeting the needs of humans now and for future generations The needs of humans have to be identified Sustainability can only be considered on a local basis Can be measured only through risk Systems and their linkages need to be considered The rules that the systems follow are critical in defining the behaviour of the system By setting some constraints on human activities, the future risk can be reduced

20. Sustainability Engineering We need to consider needs analysis not demand analysis Engineers, planners, architects need to recognise that they often build ‘engineered needs’ into urban, infrastructure, building and product design There ARE system limits and they must be acknowledged and incorporated into engineering design We cannot solve all problems with technology

21. Bringing Businesses on Board Businesses are an integral component of society They will play a significant role in achieving sustainability Many businesses are now starting to look beyond profit, greed and the five year horizon They are acknowledging that to have a longer lifespan, the company needs a longer term vision The focus on company needs and risk to the company is readily understood by management

22. Risks to Businesses Economic – economic and production shortages of energy and materials (especially metals) Legislative – requirements in Europe are driving many companies to rethink product design Social – companies are beginning to realise the value of a well trained employee Climate change – this will require a total change of mindframe if companies are to reduce CO2 emissions

23. Risks to Businesses Product innovation – important to maintaining a competitive edge Public perception - This can make or break a company Businesses are an integral component of society and are necessary for its effective function

24. Current Viewpoints in NZ Young engineers see sustainability as having huge opportunities and as being highly attractive Companies are now seeing sustainability as inevitable Consulting firms are scrambling to establish themselves as ‘The sustainability consultant’ The government is promoting sustainability strongly

25. Current Viewpoints in NZ The term sustainability is still used with little understanding Most councils and companies are happy with ‘greenwash’ There is little distinction between environmental improvement and sustainability Many companies think sustainability is too hard The public thinks sustainability is riding a bike and recycling newspapers

26. Current Directions Using dynamic modelling and GIS software to model systems and their general boundaries, linkages Determine the decisions which primarily influence sustainability Identify the roles of various players in influencing those decisions Determine the risks to systems (environmental, social, business) over the short, medium and long term Determine the roles of engineers and business in sustainability

27. Sustainability and the Future Science of Sustainability • Infrastructure – water management • Energy Sustainable Product Design/Sustainability of Businesses • Furniture • Electronic goods • Appliances

29. “…what now remains compared with what then existed is like the skeleton of a sick man, all the fat and soft earth having wasted away, and only the bare framework of the land being left…” Plato writing about Attica, 2,400 years ago

30. Dynamic Systems