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Global Change: New Operations and Modeling Challenges

This overview discusses the grand challenges for the 21st century, including population growth, altered biogeochemical cycles, and a changing climate. It explores the potential impacts of global warming and the need for new forecasting products. Institutional challenges and future issues for NOAA are also addressed.

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Global Change: New Operations and Modeling Challenges

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  1. Global Change: New Operations and Modeling Challenges Ants Leetmaa Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton, NJ

  2. OVERVIEW • Grand Challenges for 21st Century • population growth • altered biogeochemical cycles • a changing climate • A prototype forecast in 2030 • Existing capabilities to meet the challenge • Institutional challenges for the NWS and NOAA

  3. Population Growth and Associated Issues • 9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase) • Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations • Food availability requires sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300% • Energy & Security • Others • Water availability • health threats – pollution, others

  4. Possible Global Warming Impacts Annual Surface Air Temperature (deg C) These changes will present new opportunities and threats Conditions at double pre-industrial values of CO2: GFDL model Winter runoff (cm/yr) Annual change in runoff (cm/yr) Summer Soil Moisture (cm) Wetter Drier

  5. Possible Hazards -Summer 2030: hot, dry and unhealthy (after 7th consecutive year of droughts) Major fires Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust Health warning: Limit outdoor activities; expect brownouts major fisheries regime change likely Air quality alerts – 75% of days Swimming and Fishing prohibited Frequent floodings and Asian dust threats continue High danger of toxic CO2 releases Expect fisheries downturn; health threats African bacteria alerts ALERT FORECASTs: US Economy – code orange; US health – code orange; International Economy – code red: Global Security – code red

  6. Next Generation Forecast Products • Seasonal biomass production • Drought with interactive vegetation • Global atmospheric chemical transports • Health impacts including effects of global and local aerosol & ozone transports, biomass emissions, and temperature • Sea level - flooding • Coastal ecosystem health • Fisheries and ecosystem regime change likelihoods • Geo-engineering accidents

  7. Extending the Product Suite:Institutional Challenges • Your focus on current product delivery will limit investment in new areas • New products entail risks • Technology progresses faster than NOAA • Challenge for NOAA is to develop a common architecture to foster transition to NOAA-next.

  8. Some Issues to Ponder • What will be NOAA’s most important future product suites? (hint – economy, health, environment) • How will you develop the appropriate modeling and product delivery mechanisms? (hint – it won’t all be done in house) • How are you going to work with the rest of NOAA to meet these future challenges

  9. The U.S. Experiences Strong Decadal Fluctuations in Climate • Major features were • Warm 1950’s and 1990’s • Cool 1960’s and 1970’s • These resulted from • Natural climate variability • Anthropogenic causes • Volcanic and solar effects Wintertime Surface Temperature Anomalies (deg. C)

  10. NOAA Uses Computer Models to Develop a Predictive Understanding of Climate Fluctuations Observed Model 1960-1980 1980-2000 GFDL’s model simulates U.S. temperature changes when forced with observed ocean temperatures - same model is used for ENSO fcsts

  11. Improved Predictive Understanding Leads to a Decadal Forecasting Capability and Increased Confidence in Global Warming Projections A “prediction” starting in 1860 forced with observed radiative forcings - note cool 60s&70s with rapid warming in 1990s Model forced with observed ocean temperatures

  12. Decadal Average Wintertime Temperature Anomaly for U.S. (deg C.) Observed - determined from atmospheric reanalysis Simulated - model forced with observed ocean temperatures Predicted - model forced with greenhouse gases, volcanoes, solar fluctuations from 1860 to present

  13. Seasonality of Long Term Temperature Trends

  14. Seasonality of Model Projections • Seasonality and spatial structure of warming similar in model runs and observations • Model runs started in 1860 and run forward with “observed’ forcings (GHGs, aerosols, solar, ozone)

  15. Summary A richness of tropical forced responses are important on a variety of time scales, e.g. ENSO like physics remains important Hadley and Walker cells slow down with global warming • Tropical convection becomes more zonally symmetric Seasonal circulation patterns become more zonally symmetric • Subtropical highs expand northward (or southward)– especially summer/fall – depending on warming (or cooling) of tropics • Mid-latitudes experience greater drying tendencies with warming Models are starting to be capable of explaining decadal and regional climate variability • this will enable more credible attribution (anthropogenic or natural variability) of longer term trends ENSO temporal structure doesn’t change significantly • Suggestion of stronger and longer duration events with warming – predictability possibly is greater • Increased chances of more “100 year” events • Teleconnection patterns are more robust with warming • Decadal variability of ENSO can confound warming signal and is important in decadal mid-latitude climate fluctuations (droughts, etc.)

  16. End

  17. Predictability of Atmospheric Variations:Present and Future Tony Rosati and Gabriel Vecchi Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NOAA/OAR Princeton, NJ 08542

  18. Climate Scenarios Being Run for 2007 IPCC What can we learn from these about the slow and fast modes of climate variations?

  19. Preliminary Results from IPCC 2007 Runs The slow modes - changes to the general circulation • Hadley and Walker cells • Season means The fast modes -impacts of change on climate variability (ENSO)

  20. Changes to Hadley and Walker Circulations ( 500 mb vertical velocity field) % change 1860 Mean 1860 2X 4x minus 1860 2x Slow down of tropical/subtropical circulations associated with redistributions of tropical rainfall

  21. Surface temperature rainfall U200 Z200 Changes in Mean Annual Cycle: DJF Note the development of a zonally and hemispherically symmetric component to the circulation anomalies – with strong impacts in midlatitudes

  22. Surface temperature rainfall U200 Z200 Changes in Mean Annual Cycle: SON The poleward expansion of the subtropical highs is most pronounced in fall and summer. 1860 relative to 1990 shows equatorward movement of highs.

  23. Seasonality of Model Projections • Seasonality and spatial structure of warming similar in model runs and observations • Model runs started in 1860 and run forward with “observed’ forcings (GHGs, aerosols, solar, ozone)

  24. Changes to Tropical Variability with Planetary Warming Increasing CO2 NINO3 SST reversed 1860 spinup 1990 CO2 CO2 increasing 1%/yr 0.5 1 Power Spectrum Period (yr) 2 4 8 135yr

  25. 1860 1990 obs greenhouse NINO3 SST Spectrum Changes Period (years)

  26. Changes to Spatial Structure and Amplitude of ENSO (As evidenced in 500 mb vertical velocity field) 4X 2X

  27. Changes in Amplitude of ENSO Teleconnections: DJF

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