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Understanding Inertia

Understanding Inertia. Inherent Limitations on Evaluating “Upstream” Prevention Interventions. Intervention Strategies. “Upstream” Interventions School and community based prevention Disrupting Supply “Downstream” Interventions Treatment Incarceration of Users

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Understanding Inertia

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  1. Understanding Inertia Inherent Limitations on Evaluating “Upstream” Prevention Interventions

  2. Intervention Strategies • “Upstream” Interventions • School and community based prevention • Disrupting Supply • “Downstream” Interventions • Treatment • Incarceration of Users • Enforcement/Treatment Partnerships

  3. Understanding Inertia • Empirical illustration using household survey data • Structural explanation with a model of illicit drug use • Mathematical representation of system inertia

  4. Empirical Illustration Source SAMDHA 2006

  5. One Year Interruption of Initiation

  6. One Year Interruption of Initiation

  7. Permanent 33% Drop

  8. Permanent 33% Drop

  9. Two-Stage Model

  10. Two-Stage Model

  11. Two-Stage Model

  12. Mathematical Representation f(t) probability that an individual manifests outcome of interest in year t I(t) Initiation in year y X(t) aggregate level of outcome at time t

  13. One year interruption of initiation with f(t)=1 for T = 0.5, T = 1, T = 2, T = 10, years. Convolution Integral

  14. Conclusions For upstream interventions evaluated with downstream indicators…

  15. Conclusions For upstream interventions evaluated with downstream indicators… …No news is really no news.

  16. Thanks!

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