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Bruce Mayer, PE Registered Electrical & Mechanical Engineer BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu

Engineering 25. Monte Carlo vs. PERT Tutorial. Bruce Mayer, PE Registered Electrical & Mechanical Engineer BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu. NO Time Machines Allowed. In the Lecture on Monte Carlo Methods we allowed NEGATIVES in the Simulation

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Bruce Mayer, PE Registered Electrical & Mechanical Engineer BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu

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  1. Engineering 25 Monte Carlovs. PERTTutorial Bruce Mayer, PE Registered Electrical & Mechanical EngineerBMayer@ChabotCollege.edu

  2. NO Time Machines Allowed • In the Lecture on Monte Carlo Methods we allowed NEGATIVES in the Simulation • Someone might point out that no matter how hard we work we can not MAKE time • We can only USE it! • ReDo the simulation withOUT negative Times

  3. 2 1. Project Start 1. Project End 4 5 6 7 3 Recall WhareHouse PERT chart A B E F G H D C • The Schedule Elements • Install PreCast Parts on Foundation • Build Roof • Finish Interior and Exterior • Inspect Result • Excavate Foundation • Construct Foundation • Fabricate PreCast Components • Ship PreCast Parts to Building Site

  4. Possibility of Negative Times • A Small MeanDuration:StdDev ratio indicates a higher probability of NEGATIVE duration

  5. 5000-Trials Look for Negatives

  6. Expected Standard Deviation • Find the Expected Standard Deviation by Geometric (or Pythagorean) Calculation • In This case take the Std Dev from the GATING item A+B to find:

  7. Compare Lack of Time Machine • Review and Run Files: • Monte_Carlo_Wharehouse.m • Can MAKE time • Monte_Carlo_Wharehouse_No_Negatives.m • Can NOT make time A “Flux Capacitor”

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