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High Level Post Processing Cost Estimates

High Level Post Processing Cost Estimates. MWG SSC Meeting September 26, 2011. Post Processing Cost Estimates. Futures 4 and 8 increased EE/DR/DG Future 7 Nuclear Uprate Costs F2B, F3B, F5B, F5S7, F6B, and F6S5 integration costs Variable Energy Resource (VER) beyond 25% penetration

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High Level Post Processing Cost Estimates

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  1. High Level Post ProcessingCost Estimates MWG SSC Meeting September 26, 2011

  2. Post Processing Cost Estimates • Futures 4 and 8 increased EE/DR/DG • Future 7 Nuclear Uprate Costs • F2B, F3B, F5B, F5S7, F6B, and F6S5 integration costs Variable Energy Resource (VER) beyond 25% penetration • Thermal integration costs (Contingency Reserves)

  3. Energy Efficiency Demand Reduction

  4. Energy Efficiency Supply Curves

  5. Estimated Cost of Energy Efficiency

  6. Energy Efficiency Estimated Costs (Billions 2010$)

  7. Demand Response Estimated Cost (Billions 2010$) Assumptions • Costs per customer ($/customer) from recent studies divided by potential peak load reduction per customer (MW/customer) to calculate $/MW • Used $/MW for incremental peak load reductions per year in respective future

  8. Futures 4 and 8Estimated Distributed Generation Costs • 2x Distributed Generation in BAU • Assumed all behind-the-meter PV • Assumed weighted average of the 2-5 kW and 5-10 kW, $8,045/kW (2010$) • The estimated cost of the renewable distributed generation during 2015-2030 is $98B.

  9. Estimated Nuclear Uprate Costs Assumptions • $2,600/kW • All other assumptions the same as new nuclear

  10. Variable Energy ResourceEstimated Cost above 25% Penetration Limit Assumptions • EWITS Scenario 4 served as starting point - $5.13/MWh (2009$) • Gas price adjustment to capture the difference of EWITS and EIPC natural gas forecasts

  11. Variable Energy Resource Estimated Integration Costs (Billions 2010$)

  12. Contingency Reserves $2/MWh * (% coal, nuke, & CC study case/% coal, nuke, & CC BAU) Assumptions • A 2003 study, Allocating Costs of Ancillary Services: Contingency Reserves and Regulation, suggests that costs of contingency reserves to accommodate the loss of the largest unit increases the operating costs and recommends a method that allocates based on its size and forced outages to incentivize generators to maintain their units. • During Phase II the Planning Authorities should add new transmission and generation units consistent with traditional planning methods that expand the system in a manner with lowest costs. This often results in adding new transmission and generation in such a manner that the largest single contingency remains unchanged, and therefore would avoid any incremental costs.

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