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County Fiscal Outlook

County Fiscal Outlook. February 2, 2010. Outline. Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY 2011 Summary. Outline. Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges

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County Fiscal Outlook

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  1. County Fiscal Outlook February 2, 2010

  2. Outline • Economic Environment • Revenue Outlook • Budget Strategies FY 2010 • Budget Challenges • Budget Strategies FY 2011 • Summary

  3. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY 2011 Summary

  4. Economic Environment Presentations • October 13 Dr. Zingale • December 15 Scott Skraban • January 5 Dr. Snaith • January 25 Dr. Baker Dr. Snaith

  5. Economic Environment • Florida’s unemployment rate reached 11.8% in December • Including those that are underemployed unemployment rate rises to 19.5%

  6. Economic Environment Unemployment Rates

  7. Economic Environment Orange County Average Residential Sale Prices $319,968 $159,716 $143,500

  8. Economic Environment

  9. Economic Environment Statewide Foreclosures 302,161

  10. Economic Environment Orange County Foreclosure Filings *31,000 26,131 11,351 5,067 2007 2008 2009 2006 * Projected

  11. Economic Environment Orange County Housing Starts 440 10,863 26 1,661 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  12. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY 2011 Summary

  13. Revenue Outlook Enterprise Revenues • Tourist Development Tax • Building Permits • Utility Connection Fees

  14. Revenue Outlook Tourist Development Tax 25.5% 3.2% -15.4% -3.0%

  15. Revenue Outlook Building Permit Revenue -2.5% -29.1% -40.8% -13.8%

  16. Revenue Outlook Utility Connection Fees -2.1% -39.4% -64.4% Flat

  17. Property Taxes Sales Tax Public Service Tax Impact Fees Recording Fees Revenue Outlook

  18. Revenue Outlook NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT State Taxable Value Estimate 2010 Property Appraiser Assessment Date Taxable Value Estimate Preliminary Taxable Value Final Taxable Value

  19. Revenue Outlook 2011 and Beyond Property Tax Outlook FY 2011– (10%) Sales Tax FY 2011 - (2.0%) Revenue Outlook

  20. Revenue Outlook • Countywide Property Tax • Millage rate 4.4347 down from 5.1639 in FY 2007 • Sheriff MSTU • Millage rate 1.8043 down from 2.1234 in FY 2007 • Fire MSTU • Millage rate 2.2437 down from 2.5862 in FY 2007 • Sales Tax • PST • State Revenue Sharing

  21. ($89) Revenue Outlook Major Revenue Sources $959 $959 $942 $853 $474 $476 $475 $428 $107 $107 $105 $94 $130 $133 $131 $116 $128 $126 $116 $104 $89 $89 $88 $87

  22. Revenue Outlook Major Revenue Sources -10% ($69) ($89) $959 $959 $942 $853 $784 $476 $475 $474 $428 $385 $107 $107 $105 $94 $84 $133 $130 $131 $116 $105 $128 $126 $116 $102 $104 $89 $89 $85 $87 $88

  23. Revenue Outlook Major Revenue Sources ($69) ($89) $959 $959 $942 Three Main Property Tax Levies $853 $784 Countywide $476 $475 $474 $428 $385 $107 $107 $105 Sheriff $94 $84 $133 $130 $131 Fire $116 $105 $128 $126 $116 $102 $104 $89 $89 $85 $87 $88

  24. Revenue Outlook Three Major Property Taxes • Countywide Property Tax $385M • Sheriff MSTU $ 84M • Fire MSTU $105M TOTAL $574M

  25. Revenue Outlook Orange County Property Tax Estimates

  26. Revenue Outlook Orange County Property Tax Estimates $711

  27. Revenue Outlook Orange County Property Tax Estimates $711 $705 0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%

  28. Revenue Outlook Orange County Property Tax Estimates $711 $705 0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%

  29. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY 2011 Summary

  30. ($89) Budget Strategies FY 2010 Major Revenue Sources $959 $959 $942 $853 $474 $476 $475 $428 $107 $107 $105 $94 $130 $133 $131 $116 $128 $126 $116 $104 $89 $89 $88 $87

  31. Reduced Operating Budgets Used Prior Year Cash Savings Froze CIP Projects Adjusted Reserves Budget Strategies FY 2010 $60M $30M

  32. Budget Strategies FY 2010 • Public Safety -3.2% • Outside Agencies -3.4% • General Government -12.1%

  33. Budget Strategies FY 2010 General County Employees (Excludes: Const. Offices, Enterprise Operations, and Public Safety)

  34. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY 2011 Summary

  35. Budget Challenges Good News Cost cutting measures to conserve cash Past investments in infrastructure Reduction in Risk Management costs Healthy reserves Bad News Rising unemployment & foreclosures Economic uncertainty Declining revenues State budget deficit/unfunded mandates Increasing service needs

  36. Public Safety Sheriff Largest budget in county Budget consists primarily of personnel costs and fuel Corrections Budget highly dependent on inmate population Medical care costs Legislative impacts Fire Rescue New stations and equipment replacement on hold Various programs on hold Trend not sustainable Budget Challenges

  37. Health Services and Family Services PCAN Increases in healthcare costs and expensive secondary care creates financial challenges Restructure program to control costs Medicaid Medicaid enrollment is increasing significantly Healthcare reform proposals advocate extending Medicaid to more individuals Changes in State law may further exacerbate budget shortfall Family Services Programs Increasing demand for mental health and homeless issues Funding for safety net programs Budget Challenges

  38. Budget Challenges Admin. Services, C & E Services, Public Works • Administrative Services • Escalating maintenance costs • Fuel price volatility • Lease obligations • Community & Environmental Services • Operating and maintaining current parks • Limited funding for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)/water quality • Public Works • Providing adequate O&M funding continues to be a challenge • Level of services have been reduced • CIP challenges

  39. LYNX Current funding $35 million Impact of 7% reduction Healthcare $96 million program covering 9,000 employees and 19,000 members Medical trend is 9% increase Future funding challenges Employee Benefits Structural changes Budget Challenges LYNX and Employee Benefits

  40. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget Strategies FY 2010 Budget Challenges Budget Strategies FY 2011 Summary

  41. Budget Strategies FY 2011 FY 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

  42. Sheriff $184M Fire Rescue 145 Corrections 146 Other 7 TOTAL $482M Budget Strategies FY 2011 Public Safety 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget FY 2010

  43. Administrative Services $46M Family Services 45 Health Services 43 Parks & Recreation 30 Comm. & Environ. Services 20 Growth Management 10 Other 60 TOTAL $254M Budget Strategies FY 2011 General Government 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget FY 2010

  44. Constitutional Officers $ 53M LYNX 35 Other 54 (CRAs, Outside Agencies, Courts, CRP) TOTAL $142M Budget Strategies FY 2011 Outside Agencies 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget FY 2010

  45. Budget Strategies FY 2011 Tax Based Operating Budget

  46. Budget Strategies FY 2011 Tax Based Operating Budget $70M Reduction

  47. Budget Strategies FY 2011 • Savings from FY 2009 Budget • CIP Adjustments • Operating Budget Cuts

  48. Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M CIP Adjustments Operating Budget Cuts Budget Strategies FY 2011

  49. Commuter Rail $35M Corrections $10M Total Budget Strategies FY 2011 Capital Improvements Program $45M

  50. Commuter Rail $35M Corrections $10M Total Budget Strategies FY 2011 Capital Improvements Program $45M $30M Cash Funding $15M Finance

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