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Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint

Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint. Robin Hanson George Mason University Nov. 1, 2007. Great stuff!. Henry addresses key issues. Striking: scheduling big win, yet low interest! Let me frame: What theory best explains disinterest? Method we should use:

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Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint

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  1. Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint Robin Hanson George Mason University Nov. 1, 2007

  2. Great stuff! • Henry addresses key issues. • Striking: scheduling big win, yet low interest! • Let me frame: What theory best explains disinterest? • Method we should use: • List plausible theories • Identify differing predictions • Code cases in relevant variables • Evaluate predictions for coded cases

  3. Important, big market info gains, yet resist We each lowball our done dates Bosses like lowballing software managers [Jorgensen et al J Sys Soft ‘04] “Signals ability” P. Jackson on L.O.R. Schedule Forecast Distortions Effort Target date Date expect

  4. Theories of Disinterest • Added accuracy not worth lost time • Avoid new ways, unless “we new” • Would say we doing bad, need help • Threatens existing forecast experts • Fear trip insider trading laws • Dislike info leaks to outsiders • Want “fudge” to look good to superiors • Want “fudge” for line/outside perceptions

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