1 / 27

A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici

A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici. Sea Ice. Atmosphere. Precipitation. Evaporation. Run-off. Oceans. The Climate System. Biosphere. Soil Moisture. A scientific consideration of climate (I).

bud
Télécharger la présentation

A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. A Global Challenge Antonio Navarra INGV Centro EuroMediterraneoper i cambiamenti climatici

  2. Sea Ice Atmosphere Precipitation Evaporation Run-off Oceans The Climate System Biosphere Soil Moisture

  3. A scientific consideration of climate (I) Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate ?

  4. A scientific consideration of climate (II) We can male experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate. The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods. We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

  5. The next generation of numerical models will be like new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

  6. Euro Mediterranean Center for Climate Change

  7. Grids for Earth Sort of crowded at the pole

  8. T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km) T42 IPCC standard resolution (~ 300Km)

  9. Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km) T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)

  10. Scenarios N2O CO2 CH4

  11. Surface Temperature Differences JAS (2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)

  12. Precipitation Differences JAS (2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)

  13. Projected sea level change is not globally uniform Sea level change due to ocean density and circulation change during 21st century (2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999) under A1B, average of 16 AOGCMs, shown relative to global mean. Spatial variation is about 25% of global mean.

  14. The Structure of the CMCC Climate Research Numerical Methods Software Development Numerical Simulations Agricultural Impacts:Forests Impacts:Energy and Economy Agricultural Impacts:Crops Impacts:Mediterranean Sea Impacts:Health Impacts:The Coastal Zone

  15. CIRCE Climate Change and Impact ResearCh: the Mediterranean Environment An FP6 Project of the European Union Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana

  16. The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts will be assessed. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area.

  17. Policy CIRCE Strategy Impacts Climate Dynamics SocialDynamics CaseStudies

  18. What can we do ? Mitigation: remove the causes of climate change, i.e. emissions Adaptation: prepare for the coming climate change

  19. Mucche olandesi, dopo l’adattamento Mitigazione e Adattamento, Entrambi necessari, Entrambi limitati

  20. Elements for Post-Kyoto Regime Effective – Capable of realizing significant emission reduction Empowering – Allowing emerging countries to continue their development path Fair – Recognizing the historical responsibility of mature economies Shared – A large societal consensus is needed to implement effectively the policies

  21. Coalition Building

  22. General Social Survey USA (I) • 86% - Satisfied of their job • 76% - Satisfied of their income • 62% - Expect their position to improve within the next three years • 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives

  23. General Social Survey USA (II) • 25% - Think the country is not “on the right track” • 80% - Think the Congress has accomplished nothing • 60% - Expect next generation will be worst off

  24. ”Happiness Gap” US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government capability to handle them effectively There is a private-public happiness gap

  25. Policy ? In this situation the demand on policymakers is to devise a policy to tackle with determination these large problems, but without touching the sphere of private satisfaction of the individual. Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands ?

  26. Optimists But Concerned

More Related