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Results of a diagnostics of Bulgaria’s exporting and innovation activities

COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH RESEARCH AND INNOVATION: STRATEGIES, POLICIES AND INCENTIVES 21 June 2010 Sofia, Bulgaria. Results of a diagnostics of Bulgaria’s exporting and innovation activities. John Gabriel Goddard Economist, World Bank. Goal of the presentation.

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Results of a diagnostics of Bulgaria’s exporting and innovation activities

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  1. COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH RESEARCH AND INNOVATION: STRATEGIES, POLICIES AND INCENTIVES21 June 2010 Sofia, Bulgaria Results of a diagnostics of Bulgaria’s exporting and innovation activities John Gabriel Goddard Economist, World Bank

  2. Goal of the presentation The purpose of this presentation is to: • Share the results of a World Bank diagnostics that analyses Bulgaria’s specialization within the global trade system and innovation community • Propose recommendations to make public research and innovation more responsive to economic priorities and foster private R&D • Contribute to the formulation of a national science, technology and innovation strategy

  3. Background and key questions • Bulgaria had experienced robust economic growth tied to the investment boom in construction, real estate and financial sectors • But growth did not automatically lead to improving innovation capacity, nor did R&D play a central role in the growth process • “Knowledge economy” indicators suggest Bulgaria is behind other EU countries, which could explain the growth ↔ innovation disconnect Key questions: What do recent trends tell us about Bulgarian export competitiveness? What is the status of industry-science linkages? How can productivity and exporting opportunities be advanced through innovation policies?

  4. PART I. What do recent export trends tell us about Bulgaria’s industrial competitiveness? Export intensity is increasing at a fast rate since 2000 Source: UN Comtrade

  5. Where do Bulgaria’s exports in goods go to? Higher diversification of export markets after 1990: currently the EU is the top destination but highest export growth in Russia

  6. Export competitiveness is still concentrated in industries that were traditionally strong Export growth is high in industries that process (imported) natural resources, labor-intensive manufacturing and agro-industry Source: Staff estimates

  7. Export dynamics point to growth potential in knowledge-intensive products Export growth will need further investments by traditional champions and shifting resources to knowledge-intensive goods Source: Staff estimates

  8. There is room for Bulgaria’s export basket to diversify into more “sophisticated” products Finland relies on natural resources, yet it’s exports have moved up the value chain Bulgaria’s top exports are mostly less sophisticated than the global average Average “sophistication” of global exports

  9. Part II. Opportunities for creating competitive advantages through science and innovation Focus of Part II

  10. Contrary to exports, innovation capacity declined substantially and has not recovered Big drop in innovations protected by patents since 1990, especially in mature fields connected to traditional industries

  11. As a result, Bulgaria’s intellectual property is weak and risks falling further behind Bulgaria protects few innovations compared to EU-12, which as a whole is behind countries like Finland

  12. Not just the number of patents matters: Patents with high “impact” are all pre-1990 Citations to Bulgarian patents suggest that without renewed R&D investment, the country’s “innovation stock” will fade Patents with most citations granted at USPTO

  13. One positive sign: most post-2000 inventions are connected to “new industries” Inventions protected in the US used to be in fields connected to established industries, but have now diversified into new fields Patents granted at USPTO

  14. Another positive sign: More co-innovation with international partners, especially firms The intellectual property that is protected is a result of international cooperation, with stronger public-private links Based on patents granted at USPTO

  15. One way for Bulgaria to rebuild its “innovation stock” is by raising scientific capacity More publications are produced by Bulgaria’s researchers, but this has not closed the gap with EU leaders and neighbors

  16. Besides enlarging the scientific system, promoting better quality of research Bulgaria’s science currently has below average impact and visibility compared to EU countries Source: Staff estimates

  17. Intensifying links with European neighbors can support Bulgaria’ s scientific results Since 1990, there has been increasing co-authorship with international partners in the EU and the US

  18. Conclusions • There is potential to boost export-led growth through diversification into higher value-added production and knowledge-intensive industries • Reinforcing Bulgaria’s innovation capacity in the public and private sector can advance diversification and lead to improving competitiveness • Policy ingredients could include instruments that: • Foster business R&D and protection of IP • Strengthen industry-science links • International scientific cooperation with the EU

  19. Thank you! COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH RESEARCH AND INNOVATION: STRATEGIES, POLICIES AND INCENTIVES21 June 2010 Sofia, Bulgaria

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