Bighorn Sheep Viability Update to the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

1. Bighorn Sheep Viability Update to the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement Payette National Forest January - February 2010

2. Briefing Objectives • History and Background • Updated Analyses and Models • Updated Effects Analysis

3. Background • March 9, 2005, the Chief of the Forest Service reverses the 2003 FP decision as it pertains to bighorn sheep and its habitat • Found not compliant with NFMA for bighorn sheep viability issues • Found not likely compliant with Hells Canyon NRA Act • Forest Plan direction remanded for bighorn sheep

4. Appeal Direction • Regional Forester conduct bighorn sheep viability analysis in the Payette NF • Ensure habitat is available for a viable population of bighorn sheep • Support determination of compliance with Hells Canyon NRA Act, 36 CFR 219.19, 36 CFR 292.48 • Amend Forest Plan to add direction that insures bighorn sheep viability

5. Viability - Requirement • Fish and wildlife habitat shall be managed to maintain viable populations of existing native and desired non-native vertebrate species in the planning area (36CFR 219.19) • Guidance • Focus on habitats as a requisite for viability • Focus on vertebrate species • Focus on selected species: management indicator, listed species, sensitive species

6. Viability – Defined • Habitat must be provided to support, at least, a minimum number of reproductive individuals and that habitat must be well distributed so that those individuals can interact with others in the planning area. (36 CFR 219.19)

7. Analysis Foundation for Assessing Viability • Bighorn Sheep Habitat • Do we have it? How much do we have? Is it well distributed across the landscape? Is it connected? • Bighorn Sheep Landscape Use • Where are they? How far do they foray? Are herd inter-connected? • Domestic Sheep Allotment Use • Where are the allotments? When are they on the allotments? Where do they trail?

8. Draft SEIS • Released Document – October 2008 • 5-month Comment Period • 14,000+ Comments • Content Analysis of the Comments

9. Comments on DSEIS • Save Bighorn Sheep • Save Domestic Sheep Grazing • Keep risk for contact near zero • Provide for Treaty Rights • Use the Science • Conduct Economic Analyses

10. Process for Update to Draft SEIS • Developed • Source Habitat Model • Core Herd Home Range Analysis • Contact Analysis • Disease Spread Model • Community and Regional Economic Impact Model • Analyzed Effects • Bighorn Sheep as a Sensitive Species • Rangeland Resources • Tribal Rights and Interests • Socio-Economics • Environmental Justice • Cooperator Status for States and Tribes

11. Sensitive Species • “Those plant and animal species identified by a Regional Forester for which population viability is a concern, as evidenced by significant current or predicted downward trend in population numbers,  or habitat capability that reduce a species existing distribution.” (FSM 2670.5).   • Objectives for sensitive species include “special management emphases to ensure viability and to preclude trends toward endangerment that would result in the need for Federal listing” (FSM 2672.1)

20. Foray Distances and Frequencies

24. Disease Model • Utilizes the contact rate from the analysis based on foray behavior • Predicts the probability of disease spread through the rest of the bighorn sheep population • To determine persistence of the population over time.

25. Population trajectories for 3 herds (Imnaha, Sheep Mountain, & Wenaha)

26. Disease Inputs • Herd-to-herd contact probability matrix • Combined BHS/DS-to-BHS transmission • Outbreak probability • Initial herd infection status • Disease outbreak impact • Extended infectious duration • Extended adverse effect duration

27. One Possible Outcome from the Disease Model

28. Models & Analyses Summary • Offers multiple quantitative ways to display habitat, population, and potential movement patterns of bighorn sheep relative to landscapes and interactions with domestic sheep • Compares alternatives relative to risks for bighorn sheep • Logical and consistent with our understanding of bighorn and domestic sheep interactions

29. Expanded Economic Analyses • Agricultural Economics • Community and Regional Impact Models • Grazing Fee Impacts • Production Value • Non-market/Recreation Economics • Value of Bighorn Sheep Hunts

30. 2008 Gross Income from Sheep and Lamb Production in Selected Regions

31. State Level Expenditures and Visitation for Wildlife Watching and Hunting (Source: U.S. Department of Interior and Department of Commerce 2006

32. Recreation Economic Impact Area Industry Employment Distribution

33. Tribal Rights and Interests • Directly tied to: 1. Viability and persistence of the bighorn sheep population over time • Provides for a subsistence lifestyle and maintains Tribal traditions 2. How much area is identified as not suited for domestic sheep grazing • Allows for hunting in traditional areas and areas that are culturally important

43. Protected Summer Source Habitats for Bighorn Sheep, and Remaining Suited Rangeland for Domestic Sheep and Contact Rates

44. Probability of Extirpation for Upper Hells Canyon

45. Probability of Extirpation for Main Salmon and South fork

46. Contact Rates by Source Habitat and Suited Grazing Lands

47. Extirpation Probability by Contact Rate by Alternative at 100% EC

48. Extirpation Probability by Contact Rate by Alternative at 25% EC Contacts per year Probability of Extirpation

49. Extirpation Probability by Different Effective Contact Rates

50. Comparison of Outputs of Community Models to Regional Model