Keir Opie National Center for Transportation and Industrial Productivity (NCTIP) New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJI

1. Cape May County Hurricane Evacuation And Elevation Study Keir Opie National Center for Transportation and Industrial Productivity (NCTIP) New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) Paramics North American User Group Meeting New Brunswick, NJ July 14, 2008

2. Project Sponsor & Client • Sponsored by: • NJDOT Bureau of Research • South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization • Clients: • New Jersey State Police, Office of Emergency Management • NJDOT, Office of Emergency Management • South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization • Cape May County

3. Project Objectives • Elevation Surveys: • Conduct accurate GPS elevation surveys of county roadways that will feed into the NJ 47 / 347 Corridor • Determine category of hurricane that will cause roadway inundation by storm surge • Evacuation Simulations: • Determine total evacuation times for the corridor • Different lane reversal treatments • Different evacuation demand and evacuee response scenarios

4. Background – Cape May County • Southern peninsula of New Jersey • Off-season population of 100,000 • Peak-season daytime population of 1 million or more • 4 Roads in and out (5 total lanes per direction)

5. Background – Cape May County • Very low-lying terrain • A hurricane strike on the area could cause storm surges that would inundate much of the county • A major hurricane would force a mandatory evacuation of the entire county USACE SLOSH Flood Modeling

6. Background – Cape May County • Density of Different Types of Housing

7. Category 1 Category 3 No Flooding Category 2 Category 4

8. Evacuation – Study Area • NJ Route 47 / 347 highlighted in yellow • Simulation study area shown in green • Pink region is the secondary study area (external zones)

9. Evacuation – Scenario Constants • Constant in all scenarios: • Number of different types of housing units from household inventory in USACE HES, plus 2005 campground survey by NJIT • Number of housing units vulnerable to inundation from different level of hurricanes from the USACE HES • No day-trippers included in evacuation demands

10. Evacuation – Scenarios: Traffic Operations (3) • Normal operations (No reversal) • Police control overrides signal controls • Reversal as currently planned (NJ 83 – NJ 55) • Follows existing NJ 47 / 347 Reverse Lane Plan • Extended Reversal (US 9 to NJ 55) • New reversal section assumed to operate similar to current reversal plan Note: New Parameter in Extension Study

11. Evacuation – Scenarios: Area Population (2) • Peak Season • 100% Permanent Residents • 100% Occupancy of Seasonal / Tourist • Off-peak Season • 100% Permanent Residents • 50% Occupancy of Seasonal / Tourist • In both cases: • Household Inventory from USACE HES used to determine type and number of housing units in various inundation zones • No day-trippers included in evacuation demands

12. Evacuation – Scenarios: Vehicle Demands (2) • Census-based Vehicle Demands • Data from Census 2000 used to estimate evacuating vehicles per housing unit • Permanent and Seasonal Housing Units: 1.54 veh/hh • Hotel / Motel / Campground: 1.0 veh/hh • Higher Estimate of Vehicle Demands • Higher number of vehicles per household is assumed • Permanent and Seasonal Housing Units: 3.0 veh/hh • Hotel / Motel / Campground: 1.0 veh/hh Note: New Parameter in Extension Study

13. Evacuation – Scenarios: Routing Assumptions (2) • Balanced NJ 47/347 and Other Corridors Routing • Assumed balance of traffic between NJ 47/347 corridor and other corridors (US 9 / Parkway, NJ 50 / NJ 49) • Manual assignment of traffic from each evacuation district to available evacuation corridors • Heavy NJ 47/347 Corridor Routings • All households south of NJ 83 forced into NJ 47/347 corridor • All households north of NJ 83 use other corridors Note: New Parameter in Extension Study

14. Evacuation – Scenarios: Hurricane Intensity (2) • Category 1 Hurricane • Evacuation of category 1 inundation areas • Additional volunteer evacuees from other inundation areas • Category 2 (and up) • Full scale evacuation of county • Evacuation of category 4 inundation area

15. Evacuation – Scenarios: Behavior Response (3) • Hourly vehicle rate of departing evacuees calculated from behavioral response curves (Sigmoid or S-Curves) • Fast Response Rate (approx. loading time 12 hours) • Medium Response Rate (approx. loading time 18 hours) • Slow Response Rate (approx. loading time 24 hours)

16. Evacuation – Analysis Scenarios • Parameters • Traffic Operations 3 • Area Population x 2 • Vehicle Demands x 2 • Routing Assumptions x 2 • Hurricane Intensity x 2 • Behavior Response x 3 • Total Scenarios 144

17. Evacuation – Scenarios for Paramics Files • Scenario Parameters • Traffic Operations Network Structure • Area Population • Vehicle Demands • Routing Assumptions • Hurricane Intensity • Behavior Response Profile Demands File

18. Evacuation – Total Vehicle Demands Census Based Vehicles, Balanced Routing Census Based Vehicles, Heavy NJ 47 Routing Higher Estimate of Vehicles, Balanced Routing Higher Estimate of Vehicles, Heavy NJ 47 Routing

19. Paramics Network • 450 miles of roadway • Just under half of county’s roadways • Centered along a 30-mile stretch of the NJ 47/347 corridor • Approximation of Police Officer override of signals

20. Multi-day Simulation in Paramics • Some evacuations would take more than 24 hours • One simulation run for each 24-hr period • Data to be passed to the next day • Queued traffic on the roadways • Snapshots taken at end of first sim period (23:59:59) • Queued traffic in zones • Releases Counts file counts blockages and releases (calculate queue)

21. Multi-day Simulation in Paramics • Next Day Demands • Scheduled releases • Matrix 1, hourly profile releases • Snapshot loads vehicles en-route • Loaded at time 0:00 • In-zone queue traffic • Matrix 2, profile releases all in first 10 minutes of sim period • Run for 24 hours sim period • Process next 24-hour period (if needed)

22. Multi-day Simulation in Paramics • Multiple Iterations • Day 1: Processor runs 5 iterations of each assignment • Day 2: Modeller run (one iteration for each of day 1 iterations) • Day 3: Modeller run (if needed) • Day 3: Modeller run (if needed) • Many Runs • 144 Scenarios needed nearly 1500 individual 24-hour long simulations

23. Scenarios: Evacuation Times • Total Evacuation Times (in hours): • Ranges from 16 to 89 hours

24. Scenarios: Lane Reversal Savings • Shortening of Evacuation Times vs. No Reversal (in hours):

25. Effects of Lane Reversals - Example Cumulative Percentage of Vehicle evacuated via NJ 47/347 Corridor Hours after Call for Evacuation

26. Study Conclusions • Total evacuation time ranges from 16 to 89 hours (from time of call to evacuate) • Current lane reversal has very limited benefits • Most traffic assumed to enter NJ 47/347 corridor south of NJ 83 • Current lane reversal plan will not help this bottleneck • Extending the current lane reversal plan further south will help remove this bottleneck • In order to best utilize the existing plan, some traffic must be diverted from points south of NJ 83 to use US 9/GSP to NJ 83 to access the contraflow section

27. Modeling Conclusions • Paramics can be used to simulate multi-day events • Some data loss is seen moving between days • Delays of vehicles unreleased from zones • Beneficial aspects of simulation in evacuation assessment • Detailed vehicle flow modeling in contraflow lanes • Detailed queue analysis for extensive queues • Addition of a multi-day profile would make multi-day simulation much easier

28. Thanks & Contact Information • Keir Opie • Manager, Simulation & Modeling • NCTIP / IITC • New Jersey Institute of Technology • University Heights • Newark, NJ 07102 • eopie@njit.edu • ph. 973.596.5259 • fx. 973.596.6454 • www.transportation.njit.edu