Russia

1. Russia Wyatt Cothran and Madeline Forbis “Smoke of Chimneys is the Breath of Soviet Russia”

2. Россия's фон(Russia’s Background) Russia is located in Central Asia and is approximately 1.8 times the size of the US Russia has a total population of 140,041,247, which is 10th in the world, right behind Bangladesh and Nigeria. It’s population growth rate is -0.467% which is ranked 227th right behind Belarus and Swaziland.

3. Russia’s GDP ranks 7th in world with $2.266 trillion, just behind Germany, and ahead of the United Kingdom. • GDP Real Growth Rate is 5.6%, which ranks 69th in the world, just behind Maldives • 36% of GDP comes from Industry • Russia is ranked #1 in Oil Production with 9.98 million bbl/day , and is ranked 6th in Oil Consumption behind India. • Russia is also ranked # 1 in natural gas production, and ranked 3rd in the world in natural gas consumption.

4. Больше фактов весело!(More Fun Facts!) 15.8% of the Russian population are living below the poverty line Russia’s ecological footprint is 5.36, which is ranked 31st behind Slovenia and right ahead of Belarus. The United States has an ecological footprint of 12.22.

5. Что О Киотского?(What About Kyoto?) When the United States withdrew from the Kyoto protocol, Russia was heavily pressured to sign. It held 17% of CO2 emissions from industrialized countries and would make up the balance in the absence of the United States. The Russian Federation ratified the Kyoto Protocol on November 18th 2004, and the protocol entered into force on February 16th 2005.

6. GHG Emissions without the LULUCF from 1990 through 2007 were down 33.9%. • Russia’s carbon intensity/$GDP is 3.84, compared to the United States 1.77, and Sweden at 0.7. • Between 1990 and 2006 Russia’s natural gas composition of energy supply rose 12%, nuclear 2%,while oil and coal fell 10% and 5% respectively. • Russia’s electricity consumption has decreased 34% since 1990.

7. Парниковых газов(Greenhouse Gases) • The main reason for the sharp decrease in GHG emissions since 1990 is the extreme economic downturn after the collapse of the Soviet Union. • Since 1998, the Russian economy has rebounded. A greater reliance on natural gas and Nuclear energy sources has helped slow GHG output. • Another possible reason that GHG emissions haven’t increased as much as expected is that Russia has been in the midst of a population decline, losing 6.6 million people since 1993 and the trend is predicted to continue.

8. The biggest problem facing Russia is their carbon intensity. They use almost 3.5 more energy to produce a unit of GDP than anyone else in the EU. • By becoming more energy efficient Russia could save up to 40 percent of its annual energy consumption. • Energy efficiency could offset future GHG emissions associated with economic growth.

9. Как насчет сельского хозяйства?(What about the Agriculture?) • Climate change is expected to be both beneficial and problematic for Russian agriculture. Corn yields have already shown increased productivity as a result of a longer growing season due to 20 years of increasing temperature. • Future yields will increase in some regions as the growing season is likely to increase by 10-20 days by 2020. Productivity in the northern regions is expected to increase by 10-15%. • Despite these positive impacts, the frequency of drought is also expected to increase and may counteract the potential for increased productivity. On average, increased aridity may amount to an 11% decrease in corn yield for the entire Russian Federation by 2020

10. Температура увеличил(Temperature Increases) • Due to increased winter temperatures, many parts of Russia will experience a 3-4 day decrease in the heating season by 2015. This will bring substantial energy savings through increased heating efficiency. • Expected increase in temperature and precipitation from climate change could raise the annual water flow in the Volga river basin by 30-45%, 25-40% the Dnieper river basin, and 15-20% in Enisei river basin. These increases could account for significantly more flooding. • It could also contribute to deterioration of climate conditions in near shore areas, and probable increase in ice jams that may damage hydroelectric generation facilities.

11. The biggest negative impact climate change is going to have in Russia • is in the forested region and the permafrost region. • With global temperature rising by 3-4 degrees Celsius, up to half of Russia’s nature reserves will not be able to carry out nature protection functions as they do now.

12. The temperature in Russia’s taiga zone will likely increase by 5-7 degrees Celsius. In the middle of the next century, about half of the forests will be degraded and the forest structure will change to deciduous trees. • If climate warming in northern taiga continue ecosystems will not have time to adapt to the changes. Outbursts of forest diseases are expected. Timber withdrawal from taiga will be made difficult by winter roads and new road infrastructure will need to be constructed. Houses built on permafrost will have to be pulled down.

13. For the last 10 years, thawing permafrost has increased deformations of buildings in Norilsk by 42%, in Yakutsk - by 61 %, in Anderma - by 90 %. In a few decades up to 50% of houses and factory buildings and constructions can be destroyed in part or completely, e.g.. in Vorkuta up to 80 %.

14. Natural Gas Infrastructure Built on Permafrost • More than 60% of Russia’s land lies on permafrost • Warmer temperatures have already begun to melt the southernmost areas of permafrost, a trend which is expected to increase exponentially with further temperature increase • Infrastructure built in permafrost regions at risk of destruction due to soil instability: military bases, air fields, over 5000 miles of railroad, entire cities (Tiksi, Yakutsk, Vorkuta), even the Bilibino nuclear power plant • More importantly, the majority of Russia’s natural gas infrastructure is located in the permafrost regions: oil storage facilities, production facilities, pipelines, tanks, and reserves • Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas

15. Melting Permafrost and Climate Change • Permafrost acts as positive feedback mechanism to climate change by releasing GHGs when melted • Huge amount of carbon accumulated over thousands of years are trapped in frozen permafrost soils • Permafrost also traps large amounts of organic matter whose microbes emit methane • If (and when) the permafrost melts both these gasses will be released into the atmosphere- estimates as to the amounts of which vary from thousands of tonnes to a billion tonnes • This process will increase atmospheric GHG concentrations, compounding the warming which caused their release

16. Изменение климата и в будущем(Climate Change and the Future) • Today, climate change and sustainable energy issues are split between 9 ministries and agencies and cooperation between these agencies is generally very low • There is also limited environmental awareness and training among policy makers, businesses and the public. • Russia has enormous oil and gas reserves, which prevents the development of lower-carbon energy sources. • Although Russia ratified the Kyoto protocol in 2004, climate change is not a top priority for the Russian government.

17. Recent Trends in the Russian Perspective on Climate Change • It seems as though Russia has changed their stance toward the issue yet again– it is now real, but they want to deal with it in a way that will not impede further economic growth • Last June, President Medvedev said Russia would reduce emissions by 10-15% from 1990 levels by 2020. In reality, this would be a 30% rise from current levels • The administration has also approved a new ‘climate doctrine’ which officially recognized the risk of global warming. The focus of the is more on adaptation than emission reduction- but is a step in the right direction in any case • Basically, what Russia went through during the 1990s makes them unwilling to give into any concessions regarding climate agreements which they see will impede their economic growth • Russian involvement in any future climate change agreements will hinge on the premise that Russian development will not be deterred