Setting the Stage: Policies and Technology Paths to a Sustainable Future

1. Setting the Stage: Policies and Technology Paths to a Sustainable Future Maui County Energy Expo Terry Surles Hawaii Natural Energy Institute September 11, 2009

2. Basics for Sustainable, Secure Futures • Environment – land, carbon, water, air • Energy - security • Economics – value to consumers, return on investment • Equity - fairness • Education – technical understanding, behavior

3. Partnerships Are Critical For Addressing Overarching Issues Facing Electricity Systems Electricity System Issues Environment Quality: Life cycle analyses Grid Modernization: Renewable Technologies Peak Demand Global Climate Change Energy Security: Fuel Supplies, Critical Infrastructure Protection Environment Quality None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without Partnerships

4. Partnerships Require Understanding and Can Be Difficult!!

5. Partnerships and Stakeholders – Communication and Confluence of Common Interests Leads to Cooperation While there were can be clear areas of disagreement, a surprising amount of consensus on objectives, concerns, and desire for cooperation can be attained. This serves as a path forward to address many issues

6. The First Elephant in the Room: Energy Security - Global Oil Consumption Growth ~ 1%/year Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007

7. Longer Term: Oil Market Tightness to Return • Over the long term, China and India will lead not only regional, but also global oil demand growth. 7

8. Proven Oil Reserves (2006) BP World Energy Review, 2007

9. Hawaii’s Dependence on Foreign Oil Is Headed in the Wrong Direction

10. The Second Elephant in the Room:Climate Change - It’s Getting Worse “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Annual fossil CO2 emissions increased from an average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s, to 7.2 GtC per year in 2000-2005 • CO2 radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest in any decade in at least the last 200 years (since the start of the Industrial Era)

11. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade

12. A Paleoclimatic Perspective Paleoclimate data support interpretation that warmth since 1960 is unusual for the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 meters of sea level rise. According to Jim Hansen, we’ve already crossed the threshold

13. Problem Confluence: Global Security and Climate • Significant climate change and sea level rise will lead to major population dislocations • Foster additional radical groups against existing nations and economies: southern Asia • Climate change can produce “winners” as well as “losers” • Northern countries may benefit: Canada, Russia • Temperate countries may suffer due to loss of cropland and increase of tropical diseases and exotic pests • Winners and losers will also be driven by water - increased storms and more persistent droughts • Will certainly exacerbate international tensions • Particular issues concerning water availability: China, Middle East

14. Problem Confluence: Climate Change and Energy Security • Availability and upward price pressure on oil prices - disruption of supply in Africa (terrorism) and the Gulf Coast (hurricane intensity) • Coal - domestic supplies and lower prices lessen security issues, but exacerbate climate issues, geologic carbon sequestration is not yet proven on a large scale • Nuclear – Technology benefits climate issues, but increases security issues due to concerns over proliferation risks • Bio-fuels - increased food/fuel competition, coupled with uncertainties related to future agricultural productivity • Other renewable energy resources – indigenous resources benefit security, low carbon footprint benefits the climate, but at what cost and impact to the grid, logistics issues • Efficiency and demand response (use of energy storage) – how much can we “squeeze out” over the next century

15. Carbon Management and Energy Security: A Portfolio Approach Carbon Management Decarbonization CO2 Btu Sequestration Efficiency CO2 atm CO2 emitted < < < Btu GDP • Regional Partnerships • Capture/storage • End-use Technologies • Demand response • Nuclear • Renewables

16. Understand and Minimize Lifecycle Emissions

17. Life Cycle Emissions: Well-to-Wheels Analysis – Biofuel System

18. Power Quality and Reliability: A Necessity in a Digital Society From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007

19. Basic Research & Development Collaborative Technology Development Integration Application Technology Commercialization National Laboratories Universities Industry R&D Suppliers Vendors End Users Linking R&D and Public Policy to Commercialization Process Institutional Issues Regulations Incentives Government

20. Some Final Comments Couple incremental changes to transformative technologies • Portfolio approach allows sets of winners to “reveal themselves” Policy – one size does NOT fit all • Respect cultural, regional, and national differences Technologies and Current Needs – today’s presentations - What the utility is trying to do - How energy storage can provide some sets of solutions - Scenario and modeling analyses as decision making tools

21. Basics for Sustainable, Secure Futures: Hawaii Can be a Leader!! • Environment • Energy • Economics • Equity • Education