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SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY

SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY. John Ainley & Phillip McKenzie CEET Annual Conference Melbourne, 1 November 2007. OUTLINE. Focus Completing secondary school Participating in post-school education and training Context Participation levels

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SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY

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  1. SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY John Ainley & Phillip McKenzie CEET Annual Conference Melbourne, 1 November 2007

  2. OUTLINE • Focus • Completing secondary school • Participating in post-school education and training • Context • Participation levels • Employment opportunities • Conceptual framework • Competence in foundation skills • Attitudes • Intentions • Results • Represented as paths of influence • Conclusion • Earlier school outcomes matter • Earlier school outcomes can be changed

  3. Context:static school completion rates • Apparent retention rates to Year 12 static since 1991 • Three students in four complete secondary school • Variation by: • Proficiency in foundation skills • Socioeconomic background • Sex • Indigenous status

  4. Context: attainment of at least upper secondary education by 25-34 year-olds

  5. 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Professionals Labourers etc Tradespersons etc Associate Professionals Advanced Clerical/Service Interm. Clerical/Sales/Srvce Interm. Production/Transport Elemen. Clerical/Sales/Srvce Managers and Administrators 1997-8 2005-6 2013-4 Context: jobs and qualifications Fastest growth is in jobs requiring post-school qualifications Employment growth 2003-2006: - post-school quals: +3.8% p.a. -without quals: 0.4% p.a. Source: Shah & Burke (2006)

  6. Year 12 completion and post-school outcomes • Completing Year 12 has a positive effect on labour force participation, employment & earnings controlling for other factors -- the impact is greater for females • Completing Year 12 has a positive impact on career satisfaction and general life satisfaction • Educational attainment has a positive impact on health (also linked to labour force participation) Source: Hillman (2005); Productivity Commission (2007)

  7. Conceptual framework:Year 12 participation Year 12 Participation (Intention) • Background • Home Locations • Language at home • Parents’ Education • SES • Gender b a Year12 Participation c Attitudes to School • Grade 9 achievement • Literacy • Numeracy

  8. Conceptual framework:tertiary education participation • Background • Home Locations • Language at home • Parents’ Education • SES • Gender Year 12 Participation c Tertiary Education Attitudes to School b a • Grade 9 achievement • Literacy • Numeracy Tertiary Education (Intention)

  9. Data • Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) • Sample • Year 9 in 1995 • National representative sample • 13,000 students from 300 schools • 72% retained to 1998 (the year of Year 12) • Initial data collection in schools • Tests of reading and mathematics – reliability > 0.80 • Questionnaire • Attitudes – reliability > 0.93 • Intentions • Background • Annual surveys by mail and telephone • experiences in education training and work • participation in social and community activities • attainments and accomplishments

  10. Results: Year 12 Grade 12 Participation (Intention) -0.18*** 0.32*** Non-Metro LBOTE 0.97*** -0.20*** Parents’ Education 0.20** 0.15*** Grade 12 Participation 0.45*** SES 0.38*** 0.10*** Female 0.39*** 0.21*** Attitudes to School 0.30*** 0.14*** Tertiary Education Year 9 Literacy Year 9 Numeracy

  11. Results: tertiary education Non-Metro Year 12 Participation 0.39*** LBOTE 0.24*** Tertiary Education Parents’ Education 0.35*** 0.32*** 0.17** SES 0.05*** 0.07** Female 0.16*** 0.61*** Attitudes to School 0.16*** Tertiary Education (Intention) 0.17*** Year 9 Literacy 0.23*** Year 9 Numeracy

  12. Conclusions: Year 12 Other things equal: • attitudes to school predict intention to continue to Year 12; • intention to continue to Year 12 predicts actual participation; • effect of attitudes is mediated through intentions • literacy and numeracy influence Year 12 participation directly, as well as through intentions • social background factors operate through intentions rather than directly

  13. Conclusions: post-school education Other things equal: • attitudes to school predict intention to continue to post-school education; • intention to continue predicts actual participation; • effects of attitudes is mediated through intentions • literacy and numeracy influence tertiary participation directly, as well as through intentions But The effects of attitudes and intentions are less strong for tertiary education than university education

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