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Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster

Case Study: 1986 Congressional Race State of Hawaii District #1. Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster. Mid-summer 1986. Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor ! He is currently the US Rep. for District 1. One problem: He must resign to run !. So, he resigns. Mid-summer 1986.

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Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster

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  1. Case Study: 1986 Congressional RaceState of Hawaii District #1 Public Choice TheoryDr. D. Foster

  2. Mid-summer 1986 • Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor ! • He is currently the US Rep. for District 1. • One problem: He must resign to run ! So, he resigns

  3. Mid-summer 1986 PrimarySeptember GeneralNovember Elections • Need #1: Fill vacancy through Jan. 1987. • Need #2: Select nominees for general election. • Need #3: Elect Congressman in November. Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September.

  4. Mid-summer 1986 PrimarySeptember GeneralNovember Elections The Players Pat Saiki (R) MufiHanneman (D) Neil Abercrombie (D)

  5. Mid-summer 1986 PrimarySeptember GeneralNovember Elections The Rules Anyone can vote in the primary. The Twist Saiki has no discernable competition.

  6. M.H. N.A. P.S. Mid-summer 1986 PrimarySeptember GeneralNovember Elections A graphical look at public support

  7. Neil Abercrombie winsSpecial Election !!! Mid-summer 1986 PrimarySeptember GeneralNovember Elections September Results: • Pat Saiki winsRepublican primary. • MufiHanneman winsDemocratic primary

  8. Mid-summer 1986 PrimarySeptember GeneralNovember Elections November Results: • Pat Saiki winselection !!!

  9. What happened ? • Republicans voted for Mufi in primary - the “weaker” candidate, and he wins!!! • Republicans& Democrats have an incentive to vote for their favorite in the special election; Neil wins!!! • Abercrombie supportersvoted for Saiki in general election - retribution against Mufi’s campaign.

  10. Debrief • Saiki won a second term (1988-1990). • Saiki ran for senate in 1990 - lost -- was selected to run SBA by Bush I. • Abercromie ran again, and won, in 1990. -- served until 2010. • Hanneman lost 1990 race for District 2. -- later served on Honolulu City Council. • CecHeftel lost bid for governorship.

  11. Debrief II • Abercromie wanted to be governor in 2010. -- resigned from District 1 seat in 2010! • Hanneman becomes Honolulu mayor in 2004. -- re-elected in 2008. -- wants to be governor in 2010! • Abercromie wins primary and general elections. • Djou becomes interim Rep. for District 1. -- loses general election.

  12. Case Study: 1986 Congressional RaceState of Hawaii District #1 Public Choice TheoryDr. D. Foster

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