ENSEMBLES GA Prague

1. ENSEMBLES GA Prague Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

2. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Who we are / what we do • Current status / recent progress • Plans for the next phase / contributions to deliverables and milestones Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

3. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Who we are / what we do • Center for Environmental Systems Research at the University of Kassel • WaterGAP – a global model of water availability and water uses • European-wide probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on river discharge (18 catchments) Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

4. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Current status / recent progress • Response surface method • Impact of climate change (T and P)on river discharge • Change in T and P uniform over time • Change in T and P differs with seasons (critical seasons) Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

5. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Current status / recent progress perturbed physics experiment of the Hadley Centre 1990 – 2010 2080 – 2100 Elbe Po Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

6. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Points of concern Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

7. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Points of concern • Aggregate climate info to basin size • Need climate info to “adjust” response surfaces (extend study / zoom in) • Difference to multi model simulations: “seasonality” (JJA vs. individual months) Elbe Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

8. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Plans for the next phase /contributions to deliverables and milestones • D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. + Month 42 • D6.19: Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean. Month 46 with RT2B • =D2B.26 Month 48 with RT2B • D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Month 54 Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

9. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany • Plans for the next phase /contributions to deliverables and milestones • M6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models: Month 42 • Major milestone 6.4: Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health. Month 48 Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

10. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Thank you! Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

11. Watershed Water Stress Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany WaterGAP • Water Availability • (by 0.5° grid-cell) • Runoff • Recharge • Land Cover • Climate Hydrology model Water Withdrawals Domestic (by country) Industrial (by country) Irrigation (by grid-cell) Livestock (by grid-cell) • Population • Income • Technology • Climate Water use model Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

12. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany WaterGAP Daily water balance per grid cell Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß