1 / 14

EU11 Regular Economic Report

EU11 Regular Economic Report. Macroeconomic Report: Focus on Croatia. Entering the fifth year of recession. Croatia: Quarterly GDP growth, y/y. EU 11 and EU15: GDP growth, y/y. Source: Eurostat, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations. Deteriorating Labor Market Conditions.

carrington
Télécharger la présentation

EU11 Regular Economic Report

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. EU11 Regular Economic Report Macroeconomic Report: Focus on Croatia

  2. Entering the fifth year of recession Croatia: Quarterly GDP growth, y/y EU 11 and EU15: GDP growth, y/y Source: Eurostat, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations

  3. Deteriorating Labor Market Conditions Sour labor market developments, Croatia, in % Less opportunities (or incentives) even in the informal sector Source: CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations

  4. External Position Slightly Improved • External debt although high, shrank slightly due to bank deleveraging – some 20 pp of GDP above EU11 • CAD turned positive in Q4 2012 while net FDI inflow improved CAD and Net FDI (% of GDP) External Debt (% of GDP) Source: CNB, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations

  5. Public Debt on Rise • Stronger fiscal consolidation required, especially on the expenditure side • 2013 plans hardly achievable Public Debt and Deficit (% of GDP) Note: Fiscal deficit assessed for 2008-2011 as per the required ESA95 coverage Source: MOF, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations

  6. Weak Signs of Bottoming Out? Tourism recovered to pre-crisis levels, but low impact on trade… High frequency indicators Source: CNB, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations

  7. Some Softening of the Labor Market Source: CROSTAT, HZZ, World Bank staff calculations

  8. However, Structural Problems Deepened Job destruction in industry continued; public sector employment dominated Labor market entry for youth particularly constrained Source: CROSTAT, HZZ, World Bank staff calculations

  9. Reform agenda – seizing opportunities • 84th in the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings or 81st on the Global Competitiveness rankings • Challenging competition after July 1 with many of the world’s best nations for doing business.

  10. What To Do – Fiscal Consolidation • Need to regain the investment credit rating before the capital market deteriorates (again) • Interest payments at 3% of GDP already at the capital spending level • Expenditure-based consolidation remains a priority – public spending at around 45% of GDP as opposed to 40% of GDP of EU10 • Fiscal space exists in the area of the wage bill, subsidies and consumption • Social spending requires redistribution from categorical to targeted social programs and a separation from contribution-based benefits from categorical benefits • Capital spending needs to be EU-funded and to take into consideration future maintenance cost

  11. What To Do – Investment Climate • Strengthen the business environment in the areas of: insolvency proceedings; issuance of construction permits; registering property; and transparency of related-party transactions. • Open up the network industries such as energy, railways, postal services and telecoms to competition to deliver better services at better prices for business and citizens. • Deepen the governance reform in the areas of: e-governance, performance-based public sector pay; territorial reorganization; review business necessity of quasi-fiscal institutions Source: World Bank Time/Cost Disclosure

  12. What To Do – Labor Market and Social Sectors • Demand and supply side issues, no quick wins: • EPL still highly rigid in stimulating employment and accelerating restructuring • Skill mismatches • Low labor participation • Which reforms: • Increasing hiring flexibility (a good set of proposals submitted by the government) • Reducing rigidity of collective firing • Improving VET education and providing incentives for LLL • Reducing incentives for early retirement, consolidating social benefits and improving their targeting

  13. What To Do - EU Funds • July 1, 2013 Croatia Becomes 28th EU Member State • EU Structural Funds: • 1.2% of GDP available for absorption in 2013 or 0.8% of GDP in payments. • Around 3.5% of GDP per year over the next programming period in commitments • Ease the external balance position and improve debt sustainability • What needs to be done? • Create fiscal space in the order of 1 percent of GDP per year as counterpart funds and for pre-financing • Develop sector and regional development strategies linked to sustainable fiscal frameworks

  14. Thank youwww.worldbank.hr

More Related