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Seasonal Coral Bleaching Risk Prediction for Reef Management

This presentation at the 2012 International Coral Reef Symposium in Cairns, Australia discusses the seasonal dynamical prediction of coral bleaching risk and its implications for reef management under climate change. The presentation highlights the importance of early warning systems, proactive management strategies, and long-term planning for effective coral reef management. The use of seasonal forecasting models and the availability of operational products for the Great Barrier Reef are also discussed.

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Seasonal Coral Bleaching Risk Prediction for Reef Management

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  1. 2012 International Coral Reef Symposium Cairns, Australia Seasonal dynamical prediction of coral bleaching risk for reef management www.cawcr.gov.au Claire Spillman & Aurel Griesser Session 10: Modelling reef futures 9 July 2012

  2. Warming oceans High ocean temperatures are the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events Global warming likely to increase bleaching frequency and severity of bleaching events How to best manage our coral reefs under climate change? Observed and projected annual GBR mean SST under IPCC scenarios A2 & B1 (Lough et al 2006; Donner et al. 2009) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Donner et al 2005, 2009; Lough et al 2006

  3. Coral reef management Most useful for proactive marine management Decision timescales Activate early warning system Plan for upcoming season Flag reefs for monitoring Early window for implementation of strategies to minimise impacts Survey bleached areas Extreme weather plans Coordinate activities Minimal warning time Reactive management Policy development Long term planning Changes to zoning Schedule surveys Close reef areas Long term planning Decades to centuries Days Weeks to months Climate forecasting Climate change Weather forecasting Satellite nowcasts Seasonal forecasting Better managed marine resources have improved improved resilience under climate change The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  4. Seasonal forecasting • Seasonal timescale most useful for marine managers • Provides an early window for implementation of management strategies to minimise impacts • Dynamical models can incorporate climate change signals unlike statistical models • Better managed marine resources have improved resilience under climate change Surveying bleached corals Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011 Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  5. Atmospheric Model (BAM3.0) Atmosphere Initial Conditions POAMA Atmosphere & Land Initial Conditions Coupler (OASIS) Ocean Model (ACOM2) Ocean Initial Conditions 90o E E 180o W 90o W 0o • Global coupled ensemble ocean-atmosphere and data assimilation seasonal prediction system • Ocean grid 0.5-1.5° north-south by 2° east-west • Forecasts out to 9 months • 33 member ensemble • Probabilistic forecasts • Run in real-time since 2002 • Upgrade to POAMA-2 http://poama.bom.gov.au The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012

  6. Great Barrier Reef forecasts • First operational dynamical seasonal forecasts for coral bleaching risk in the world • Operational seasonal POAMA SST forecasts for the GBR produced in real-time and available online • Provides advance warning of potential bleaching conditions • Component of the GBRMPA Coral Bleaching Response Plan http://poama.bom.gov.au The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012

  7. Great Barrier Reef products Operational: • Spatial GBR SSTA • GBR SSTA Index • Operational products hosted by Ocean Services Experimental: • Degree Heating Months • Probabilistic forecasts • Google Earth products http://poama.bom.gov.au The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman 2011

  8. Summer forecast skill January February Useful skill up to 3 months ahead during summer March The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman & Alves (2011), Spillman et al (2012)

  9. GBR Bleaching Events Nov Dec Jan Feb Nov Dec Feb Jan 1998 bleaching event 2002 bleaching event The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman et al (2012)

  10. Degree Heating Month skill Bleaching events El Nino events The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman et al (2011), Spillman et al (2011)

  11. Forecasts for the Western Pacific • Development of a suite of experimental seasonal forecast products for coral bleaching risk in the Western Pacific • Project within the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science Adaptation Program (PACCSAP) • Skill evaluation of model forecasts of extreme ocean temperatures • An improved understanding of the large scale climate drivers • Support and in-country training for Partner Countries to assist decision making and monitoring of anomalous ocean conditions likely to cause coral bleaching PACCSAP Partner Countries The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  12. Model skill in the Western Pacific Model Skill: DJF (L=0) Model-Persistence: DJF (L=0) Model Skill: JJA (L=0) Model-Persistence: JJA (L=0) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  13. Forecast delivery • Online portal to deliver seasonal forecasts for the Western Pacific under development • Potential experimental forecast products: • SST & anomalies • Probabilities • Thermal stress • Country indexes The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  14. Benefits & uses of reef forecasts • Improve community & stakeholder awareness of how climate influences local marine systems • Advance warning of potential bleaching events allowing for proactive management & response • Identification of future threats for long term planning & policy development • Gain an understanding of the processes occurring & large scale climate drivers Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011 Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  15. Latest real-time forecasts.. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology http://poama.bom.gov.au

  16. Future for coral reefs • Global warming likely to increase coral bleaching frequency & severity • POAMA seasonal forecast products are invaluable tools for proactive coral reef management • Manage for better reef resilience in the face of a changing climate Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Spillman 2011; Spillman et al 2012 Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  17. Further information • POAMA: http://poama.bom.gov.au • PACCSAP: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/ • Operational forecasts: http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/ • Spillman et al. (2012) IJC, DOI:10.1002/joc.3486 • Griesser & Spillman (2012) CAWCR Res Lett, in press • Spillman (2011) J Oper Ocean, 4(1):13-22. • Spillman (2011) CAWCR Res Lett, 6:34-39 • Spillman et al. (2011) MWR, 139:317-331. • Spillman et al. (2011) BAMS, 92: 1586-1591 • Spillman et al. (2009) Coral Reefs, 28:197-206 • Maynard et al. (2009) J Env Manage, 44:1-11 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  18. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Dr Claire Spillman Research Scientist Phone: +61 9669 8105 Email: c.spillman@bom.gov.au Web: www.cawcr.gov.au Thank you www.cawcr.gov.au

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