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Back to The Future Early Role of EAF in Divining the Future of AI

Back to The Future Early Role of EAF in Divining the Future of AI. Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University March 26, 2006 Talk at EAF’s Festschrift. 1960s: The Golden Age of SAIL. Robotics Computer Vision Capturing Expertise Speech Language Understanding Computer Music

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Back to The Future Early Role of EAF in Divining the Future of AI

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  1. Back to The FutureEarly Role of EAF in Divining the Future of AI Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University March 26, 2006 Talk at EAF’s Festschrift

  2. 1960s: The Golden Age of SAIL • Robotics • Computer Vision • Capturing Expertise • Speech • Language Understanding • Computer Music • Chess, Symbolic Mathematics, Correctness of Programs, Theorem Proving, Logical AI, Common Sense • Time Sharing • LISP • DEC Clones: Foonly, Graphical Editors, Pieces of Glass, Theory of Computation

  3. In the Beginning: Capturing Expertise in 60s • Heuristic Dendral: Representation, acquisition and use of knowledge in chemical inference • Started in 1965 • Project Team • Ed Feigenbaum • Josh Lederberg • Bruce Buchanan • Georgia Sutherland et al • Impact • Grand Father of Knowledge Industry • Greatest Industrial Impact of AI to date

  4. Knowledge Centric AI Understanding Speech in 70s • Blackboard Model • Hearsay • Communicating and Collaborating Knowledge Sources • Hypothesis and Verify paradigm of Knowledge Sharing • At Stanford: Penny Nii and EAF • Performance Matters: Compiling Knowledge • Dragon System • Compile Knowledge Sources into an integrated graph structure representation • Harpy • Graph optimization to eliminate redundant sub-graphs • Beam Search prunes search to look at promising alternatives and eliminates backtracking

  5. Sagan Report 1978Machine Intelligence and Robotics in Space • Role of MI and Robotics within NASA • Space Exploration • Space Exploitation • Space Colonization • “Accidents Happen to Prepared Minds” (Simon quoting Pasteur) • Working on the Sagan report (as the vice-chair) prepared me for the recognizing the enormous problems of knowledge capture and use implied by the “Songs of the Distant Earth”

  6. At the Robotics Institute in 1983Necessary Conditions for Self Reproducing Factories • Self Reproducing • Experiments at RI with Fritz Prinz (now at Stanford) on Self Reproducing Lathes in 1983-84 • Self Repair • Precision remote tele-operation: McCarthy’s Proposal • Self Diagnosis • Self Awareness • Self Operation • Experiments in Mechanical MOSIS with Paul Wright (now at UC Berkeley) • The 90% Solution

  7. Arthur Clarke in 1985The Songs of the Distant Earth • Colonization of Earth-like Planets in other solar systems • Capturing the Knowledge for the Mothership • 3000AD + • God-made knowledge • Man-made knowledge • Vedas, Tripetikas, Bible and Koran left behind! • Actionable Knowledge • Structured, Unstructured, Implicit Knowledge • Can we do it? What would it take? • What are the intermediate goals?

  8. AI in the 80s: To be or Not to be • Creation of AAAI • Newell as President and Feigenbaum as President Elect • Bruce Buchanan, Bob Balzer, Bob Englemore… • The Ascent and Decline of AI Industry • EAF at the center • Boom Times: AAAI in Philadelphia – 6000+ people • Attacks and Self doubt • Change the Name?

  9. Musings in the 1980s: What is AI anyway? • Newell’s criteria for an Integrated Intelligent System • Learn from Experience • Use Vast Amounts of Knowledge • Exhibit Goal Directed Behavior • Tolerate Error and Ambiguity • Communicate using Language and Speech, and • Operate in Real time • Laws of AI • Faced with Complexity, humans choose suboptimal solutions • Humans don’t give up claiming it is NP-Complete • An Expert knows 50K +/- 20K Chunks of Knowledge • A physical symbol system is necessary and sufficient for Intelligence • Search Compensates for Lack of Knowledge • When in doubt sprout! • Knowledge circumvents the need for Search • Knowledge reduces uncertainty eliminating trial and error behavior

  10. 1997 Deep Blue beats KasparovThe Grand Challenge Problems: Knowledge is Indispensable • World Champion Chess Machine • Read a book and answer questions at the end of chapter • Observe and learn to assemble a Mars Rover or a bicycle • …..

  11. Village GoogleAn AI-Centric and AI-Complete Problem • Can an uneducated person benefit from the use of Information Technology? • Can IT be affordable, accessible and available? • 4Cs: Connectivity, Computing Platform, Capacity Building, and Content • Access to Knowledge and Knowhow? • The Village Google experiment with UN-FAO • Question: Speech in local language • Answer: Video answer from “Expert” in local language • AI-Centric and AI-Complete

  12. The Next Millennium:Research Agenda for the Future of AI? • Improve Human Productivity by 1000% • 10 – 20 Years • Grand Challenge Problems • 20 – 50 Years • Human Level AI • 50 – 100 Years • Super Human AI • 100 – 1000 Years

  13. In conclusion…Ed was way ahead of the rest of us in recognizing that Knowledge will play a central role in the future of AI

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