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Prepared for ХХХХ

ХХХХ Business Opportunity. Prepared for ХХХХ. Contents. Introduction and objectives.

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Prepared for ХХХХ

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  1. ХХХХ Business Opportunity Prepared for ХХХХ

  2. Contents

  3. Introduction and objectives • ХХХ is one of main ХХХ bleaching agents. It is used in the on-site production of ХХХ at chemical ХХХ. It’s global market is estimated at around 3.3 ХХХion tons and it is expected to see a moderate growth of 2.0...2.5 % p.a. on a global scale. • ХХХ is a Russian holding company. ХХХ has full ownership of a vast chemical factory site in ХХХ. ХХХ plant is currently producing various chemicals such as ХХХ etc. • ХХХ has access to an abundant raw material resources in form of a large brine deposit close to the ХХХ with ample supply of ХХХ raw material, easy access to fresh water, cheap energy and skilled low cost labour. Railway connections reach Russian, Asian and European markets. • ХХХ is now looking for an industrial business partner with technology and market competence so that the available resources could be fully utilized for mutual benefit. • ХХХ is publicly listed chemical company concentrating on ХХХ chemicals, water treatment chemicals, paints and industrial chemicals. ХХХ is currently the world’s second largest ХХХ chemical supplier. The recent acquisition of ХХХ Chemicals, one of the world’s leading ХХХ supplier, further strengthened the company’s position in the ХХХ market.

  4. Introduction and objectives, cont. • ХХХ and ХХХ jointly asked ХХХ to evaluate the viability of a ХХХ plant project at ХХХ site (the Project). • The primary objective of this “Phase one” study is to evaluate the ХХХ market potential in the Project’s local and “nearby” Russian and selected export markets. • The potential “Phase two” study will be offered separately after the completion of the “Phase one” evaluation.

  5. Proposed study flow and phases In this phase one the market potential and the cost competitiveness of the production will be evaluated. Technicalconcept andfeasibility Business environment Market opportunity Implementation • Domestic • Siberia • Russian Far East • European Russia • Export • China • Japan • Rest of Asia • Europe • Customer base • Resources • Raw material • Water • Energy • Labour • Logistics • Competitors • Concept • Technology • Feasibility • Joint venture options; contract manufacturing etc. • Project implementation pattern • Financing etc. VIABILITY of the investment • Cost competitiveness • Domestic • Export Investment OpportunitiesRisks Capacity &Revenue Phase one Phase two

  6. Key issues to be investigated • Current production of chemical ХХХ by region (Russia, Japan, China, Rest of Asia and Europe) • Production forecast of chemical ХХХ by region up to 2015 Regional ХХХ production • Trends in ХХХ quality/brightness requirements • Changes in ХХХ process and bleaching sequences • Availability and cost competitiveness of various bleaching chemicals Drivers affecting ХХХ bleaching Market opportunity Demand • Existing chemical ХХХ ХХХs and decided and planned ХХХ ХХХ projects in the study region • ХХХpotential for the above ХХХs: future of existing ХХХ plants on site etc. Changes in regional customer base • Current ХХХconsumption by region • ХХХconsumption forecast up to 2015 Regional bleaching chemical consumption • Existing ХХХproducers in the study region • Announced changes in ХХХsupply ХХХproducers Supply • Raw material availability, water, energy (contract options), labour, logistics Business environment The Project’s resources • Comparison of main cost items in selected regions Positioning of players in ХХХmarket

  7. site location

  8. Study approach • ХХХ will carry out the study in close co-operation with ХХХ and ХХХ. Finnish Chemicals (the Clients). ХХХ international office network will provide the necessary support in terms of regional expertise. • ХХХ core team for the project consist of ХХХ. The Client is expected to appoint its own contact and project team members for the project. • The proposed engagement will be carried out primarily as a desk study that will be complemented with one field interview trip to the Irkutks region. Most of basic information needed for the study will be derived from ХХХ’s worldwide Market, ХХХ and ХХХ ХХХ Data Banks and other relevant file material. • In addition to the desk research and field interviews the in-house expertise and opinions of both the Clients’ and the ХХХGroup’s various business units will be utilized when assessing the trends and requirements of future chemical business. • Working meetings and workshops between the Client’s team members and representatives and ХХХ will be arranged, when deemed necessary. In these meetings the progress and interim findings of the study will be dealt with.

  9. Reporting and time schedule • Reporting • The study results will be presented in a condensed form. The final study report will be sub-mitted to the Clients in the pdf-format. • Final findings and conclusions of the study will be presented to the Clients’ representatives in a separate presentation and discussion meeting. After this meeting and the Clients’ comments ХХХ will prepare the final study report. • Time schedule • A period of 9 to 11 working weeks is estimated to be required for the proposed study. The study work can be started within two weeks from the order confirmation.

  10. Contents

  11. World demand for ХХХ and ХХХboard 1980-2020 World demand for ХХХ and ХХХboard is forecast to grow from 359 ХХХion tons in 2004 to 494 ХХХion tons by the year 2020, corresponding to an average growth of 8–9 ХХХion tons or 2.1% a year. Other Forecast Latin America Emerging markets CAGR 4.1% Rest of Asia China Eastern Europe Japan Mature markets CAGR 0.5% Western Europe North America

  12. Long-term demand growthby region through 2020 ХХХ demand prospects vary considerably between regions with a modest outlook for Japan, North America and Western Europe but still significant growth potential for Asia and Eastern Europe – India, China and Russia in particular. India Per capita, kg 1980* 2000* 2020 World 38 53 65 North America 255 330 278 Western Europe 119 215 228 China 6 30 75* three year averages Russia China Eastern Europe Middle East Latin America Africa Rest of Asia Average 2.1%/a Oceania Western Europe North America Japan

  13. Long-term demand growthby product area through 2020 World ХХХ demand is expected to grow 2.1%/a in the long term. Tissue, coated ХХХfree ХХХs and containerboards will be the fastest growing product areas. Tissue Coated ХХХfree Containerboards Average 2.1%/a Cartonboards Uncoated ХХХfree Coated mechanical Newsprint Uncoated mechanical Other grades Sack ХХХ

  14. Leading producers of ХХХ and ХХХboard 2004 USA is by far the largest producer of ХХХ and ХХХboard in the world followed by China, which has strengthened its position as # 2 producer. Top 20 producing countries account for close to 90% of the world total.

  15. Changes of total ХХХ and ХХХboard production Projected productions by region and main grade group 2004 - 2015 2004 2015

  16. Contents

  17. ХХХ production – total and market 2004 Virgin ХХХs account for 51% of the total ХХХ production. Almost 30% of all ХХХ is market ХХХ. Total ХХХ Market ХХХ

  18. Chemical ХХХ production and consumption by region 2004 North America is the # 1 chemical ХХХ producing region. It accounts for 48% of the world total production followed by Europe with 21 %. North America is also the largest consuming region with 39% of the world’s demand. Chemical ХХХ contains bleached and unbleached sulphate and sulphite ХХХs. Production Consumption Total 128 ХХХion t/a

  19. Demandfor ХХХmaking ХХХe World consumption of ХХХmaking ХХХ is forecast to grow 2.4%/a over the long term, equal to some 115 ХХХion tons between 2003 and 2015. Recovered ХХХ is expected to grow fastest to reach over 50% of total ХХХ making ХХХ before 2015, with BHKP being the second largest ХХХ furnish both in terms of growth and actual size by 2015. Forecast Recovered ХХХ Non-ХХХ Sulphite Unbleached kraft Bleached hardХХХ kraft Bleached softХХХ kraft Mechanical & semi-chemical

  20. Consumption growth of ХХХmaking ХХХ 2000 - 2015 Average 2.1%/a DIP Other RCP Non-ХХХ BHKP Mechanical/ semi-chem. BSKP UKP Chemical ХХХ ХХХs Sulphite

  21. Leading ХХХmaking ХХХ and RCP producers USA is the largest ХХХ producer in the world. China still has a substantial amounts of ХХХ coming from small non-ХХХ ХХХs. Production by country 2004

  22. Bleached SoftХХХ Kraft Market ХХХ Major trade flows 2004, ХХХion tons 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1 2.7 3.5 0.5 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.1 Total 19ХХХ. tons 506EY16

  23. Bleached HardХХХ Kraft Market ХХХ Major trade flows 2004, ХХХion tons 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.6 0.1 Total 16 ХХХ. tons 506EY17

  24. Imports/exports by main grade and region 2003 North America is a dominating net exporting region especially in recovered ХХХ, but also in BSKP. Latin America is the dominating exporter of BHKP. Asia, especially China is a major net importer of ХХХmaking ХХХs. ХХХion t/a Net imports Net exports

  25. Changes in ХХХ production and RCP volumes 2000 2015 the World North American and Western European ХХХs will continue to dominate the world ХХХ industry. However, the strongest production growth is forecast to take place in Asia (excl. Japan) Eastern Europe and Latin America.

  26. Capacity distribution of chemical ХХХХХХ ХХХs 2005/IV 61 Capacity range (1000 t/a) 54 Number of ХХХs 16 12 31 4 3 8 13 13 4 5 8 18 15 13 5 7 76 4 4 2 4 10 10 1 5 13 3 6 3 7 18 4 20 8 2 4 5 3

  27. Capacity distribution of bleached chemical ХХХХХХ ХХХs 2005/IV Capacity range (1000 t/a) 40 40 Number of ХХХs 14 31 4 3 8 7 12 12 17 5 13 6 9 5 48 3 3 2 8 3 3 1 1 5 5 10 6 9 6 11 1 1 2 5 4 3 1

  28. Real Price of BKP’s and BCTMP in 1970 – 2010 Real price trend of ХХХs is declining (as is the real price of ХХХs) which puts pressure also on the suppliers’ pricing. Forecast NBSKP BHKP Trend prices 2004/2009/2015 600/570/535 550/510/465 HW BCTMP 485/455/415 * Prices CIF North Atlantic/North Sea port. Deflator used for real prices US WPI. 503TT06

  29. Cost level of current producers Manufacturing costs Manufacturing costs + Capital charges 1) - EUR/t - - EUR/t - Regional average 1) Depreciation + ROCE 10% Exchange rates 2004/IV: EUR 1 = USD 1.34 = RUR 37.4 = BRL 3.65 = JPY 139 2) Sample based on limited number of producers Bleached softХХХ kraft market ХХХ – Cost level 2004/IV

  30. Cost level of current producers Manufacturing costs Manufacturing costs + Capital charges 1) - EUR/t - - EUR/t - Regional average 1) Depreciation + ROCE 10% Exchange rates 2004/IV: EUR 1 = USD 1.34 = RUR 37.4 = BRL 3.65 = JPY 139 2) Sample based on limited number of producers Bleached hardХХХ kraft market ХХХ – Cost level 2004/IV

  31. Contents

  32. ХХХ production and consumption in Russia In 2004 Production Consumption Total 8.3 ХХХion t/a Total 6.4 ХХХion t/a

  33. Chemical ХХХ ХХХs in Russia

  34. Bleached sulphate ХХХ net trade in Russia In 1995, 2000 and 2004

  35. ХХХ hardХХХ net trade in Russia In 1995, 2000 and 2004

  36. ХХХ net trade in Russia In 1995, 2000 and 2004

  37. Contents

  38. ХХХgeneration • ХХХ is used in ХХХ bleaching. It is always produced at the ХХХ site, either by the ХХХ ХХХ itself or to an increasing degree also by an outsourced company. • ХХХis produced from ХХХin a reaction which requires a reducing agent and an acidic environment. is the most commonly used acid in the generation process and is used in some processes as a reducing agent. • In most ХХХgeneration processes some by-product is produced. This is either waste acid (containing ХХХ) or a neutral ХХХ (usually ХХХ). The by-products can be used as make-up chemicals in the ХХХ ХХХ chemical recovery or, in case of waste acid, in tall oil recovery for soap acidulation. • Typical ХХХ-generation processes are: • Mathiesson • HP-A • R3 / ХХХ-Standard • R8 / ХХХ-Lite or R10 /ХХХ • The R-processes are the trade name for ХХХ and the equivalent processes from ХХХ are named ХХХ –processes.

  39. General trends in chemical ХХХ ХХХ production • Production • HardХХХ ХХХ capacities from 0.5 ХХХion t/a in 1990 to 1 ХХХion t/a today • Higher yield from raw materials • Circulation of water and chemicals • Collection and destruction of NCG • Low OX production mode (combination of ХХХ and ХХХ based chemicals) • Energy • Reduced energy consumption • Intensified energy generation based on bio fuel • ХХХ and Forests • Biggest hardХХХ resources in South America (Euca) and South East Asia (Acacia) • Biggest softХХХ resources in Russia • HardХХХ production more and more based on plantation ХХХ • Environment • Minimum Impact ХХХ • Reuse of commodities and utilities • Reduced emissions (BAT)

  40. Past and recent changes in bleached kraft ХХХs • ХХХs with lower/zero AOX levels were hot topics in the 1990s. • Now there are several ХХХs with capability of producing ХХХ ХХХ, but the actual ХХХ ХХХ production is limited to some 2 - 3 ХХХion tons/a • The major recent changes in bleaching of kraft ХХХ have been: • Withdrawal of elemental ХХХ and ХХХ and applying oxygen delignification • Lower unit consumptions of bleaching agents: from 110 kg to 50 – 60 kg act.Cl2/ADt (BSKP) • AOX reduction from 2.5 to 0.2 kg/ADt • Today the dominating ХХХ grades are “low OX” or “light ECF”, ХХХ ХХХs are not foreseen to increase their market shares • Typical bleaching sequences at modern ХХХs are: … • New greenfield kraft ХХХ ХХХs often have a “chemical island” consisting of a ХХХplant, an oxygen production unit, a tank farm and a ХХХplant • Trend is towards more “closed cycle” systems allowing the recover and reuse of water and chemicals

  41. Past and recent changes in bleached kraft ХХХs, cont.

  42. Flows at a chemical ХХХ ХХХ ELECTRIC POWER LP-STEAM HP- STEAM RECOVERY BOILER POWER BOILER TURBINE GENER. ELECTRIC POWER BIOFUEL RECAUSTISIZING LIME KILN LP-STEAM POWER ХХХ ХХХ H2SO4 2 ХХХ ХХХ ХХХ NaOH H2O2 ХХХ ХХХ ХХХ WATER ХХХ

  43. Contents

  44. Estimated breakdown of ХХХ chemical market Year 2003 Total EUR 6.4 billion EUR 0.5 Billion Recycling chemicals EUR 0.8 billion EUR 0.8 Billion Bleaching chemicals EUR 3.3 billion EUR 1.5 Billion Cooking chemicals EUR 2.3 billion

  45. Projected breakdown of ХХХ chemical market Year 2015 Recycling chemicals EUR 1.5 billion, growth 5.4 %/a Total EUR 8.8 billion 1,5 %/a 3,6 %/a Bleaching chemicals EUR 4.4 billion, growth 2.5 %/a 2,2 %/a Cooking chemicals EUR 2.9 billion, growth 1.9 %/a

  46. Assessed attractiveness of ХХХ chemical market Cooking chemicals Bleaching chemicals Recycling chemicals Global 2003-2015 Size of a bubble represents the absolute growth in MEUR between 2003-2015 450 MEUR - Growth/a, % - ХХХ, -5%/a - Value of market 2003, MEUR -

  47. ХХХ chemical market growth • Average growth in ХХХ chemicals globally is expected to be 2.5 %/a. • ХХХ chemicals especially ХХХ are expected to have the highest absolute growth amongst ХХХ chemicals. • Highest relative growth is seen in recycling chemicals especially surfactants and fatty acids. • Highest growth potential for ХХХ demand is expected in ‘emerging markets’; Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia (excl. Japan). • ХХХ demand growth is seen especially in Western Europe and North America where the production of deinked ХХХ is still expected to grow rapidly.

  48. Contents

  49. ХХХproducers in N-A and W-E

  50. Contents

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