Existing Programs New Programs Future Projections

1. GLOBEC – InternationalIntegration & Synthesis Activities Steps to place GLOBEC in a Climate Change context • Existing Programs • New Programs • Future Projections Global sponsors Regional sponsors

2. ESSAS SPACC CCCC CCC CLIOTOP Southern Ocean GLOBEC GLOBEC: a Regionally-implemented programme

3. NEMURO LTL North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography • A consensus conceptual model was designed representing the minimum trophic structure and biological relationships … thought to be essential in describing ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific

4. Yamanaka et al. (2005)

5. NEMURO.FISH

6. 50-year hindcast to look at “Regime Shift” signals in fish populations (Recent request from NOAA to PICES for advice on Regime Shifts – FERRRS Report)

8. WCVI Herring growth rate (age 3 to 4) Temperature Small zooplankton Large zooplankton Predatory zooplankton Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.

9. Summary of time series All three eastern Pacific locations show a shift in late 70’s: • Herring growth increased in Bering Sea, but decreased in WCVI and PWS • Temperatures warmed at each location • Predatory zooplankton decreased

10. WCVI West Coast Vancouver Island: Zooplankton variation is most important (Temperature effect small) PWS Prince William Sound: Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Zooplankton effect dominant Bering Sea: Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Temperature effect dominant B. Sea Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.

11. ESSP Open Science Conference Marine Ecosystems: Trends, Feedbacks, and Predicting Future States 9-12 Nov. 2006 Future Projection of Ecosystem Change in the Western North Pacific Taketo Hashioka1,Yasuhiro Yamanaka1,2, Takashi T. Sakamoto2 and Fumitake Shido1 (1. Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University ) (2. Frontier Research System for Global Change ) Thank to Dr. Maki Noguchi Aita for providing figures.

12. Ocean Acidification Decrease in CaCO3 Producer by the Lower PH (This process is not included in our model) 2/13 General Hypothesis :Ecosystem Change Associated with Global Warming To predict the ecosystem change quantitatively… We need to understand, firstly, which process is more essential for ecosystem change, and secondly, how the ecosystem seasonally and regionally responds to global warming.

13. SeaWiFS Annual Mean Chl-a Conc. Model Domain (20-60oN, 115-170oE) 5/13 Purpose of This Study To predict the response of the lower-trophic level ecosystem to global warming, we conducted and compared the present-day and global warming experiments, using a 3-D NEMURO in the western North Pacific. < Setting of our model > Ocean General Circulation Model ＊ CCSR Ocean Component model (Hasumi et al., 2002) ＊ Horizontal resolution: 1o x 1o degrees Ecosystem Model ＊ 15-Compartment model extended from NEMURO (Yamanaka et al., 2004) Boundary conditions for present-day sim. ＊Monthly mean climatology from data-sets of OMIP and WOA 01 Oyashio Current Kuroshio Current

14. 6/13 Boundary Conditions for G.W. Experiment A data set of simulated fields according to the IS92aG.W. scenario, which contributed to the IPCC 3rd report. (conducted by CCSR/NIES COAGCM ; Nozawa et al., 2001) IS92a: Intermediate G.W. Scenario Boundary Conditions at the Sea Surface ＊Wind Stress ＊Sea Surface Temp. ＊Fresh Water Flux ＊Shortwave Radiation 　　＊At the end of the 21st century (averaged from 2090 to 2100)

15. High-resolution model (1/4ox1/6o) on the Earth Simulator 35N 1m/s The increase in the Kuroshio Current by 30% associated with G.W. is also reported by Sakamoto et al. (2005), using a high-resolution coupled climate model. 0 10 20 30 40 50 [cm/s] 0 3 6 9 12[cm/s] 7/13 Change in Flow Field @ 100m (Present-day Simulation) (Global Warming) – (Present-day) Annual Mean Annual Mean Oyashio Current 40cm/s Kuroshio Current +10cm/s (about 30%) Increase in the Kuroshio Current from 40cm/s to 50cm/s at its maximum. associated with global warming. Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007(in press, the Special Issue of NEMURO in Ecological Modeling)

16. 0.7 -30% 0.5 12/13 Change in Seasonal Variations (0-20m) Diatoms Black Line: Pre. Red Line: G.W. Non-Diatom Small Phy. Phy. Conc. (umolN/l) No Change Percentage of Diatoms (%) Subarctic Site (155E, 45N) Transition Site (155E, 38N) Subtropical Site (155N, 28N) ＊The onset of the spring bloom is predicted to occur half a month earlier. ＊The maximum biomass in the spring bloom is predicted todecrease by 30%. ＊The change in the dominant group appears notably at the end of the spring bloom. ＊The biomass change at the transition site is the largest due to the large change in MLD.

18. Small Pelagics And Climate Change SPACC

19. Toward a comparative approach of EBC dynamics. Discussions are underway for developing a concerted modelling approach involving several Institutes and scientists from EBC regions (led by French IRD) Canary Benguela Humboldt

21. Are the models complex enough? (Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.A. Einstein )

22. NEMURO.FISH

23. Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North Sea Percentage of C. helgolandicus (Beaugrand)

24. Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North Sea Calanus finmarchicus Calanus helgolandicus 12 12 1.6 1 11 11 1.4 0.9 10 10 0.8 1.2 9 9 0.7 8 8 1 0.6 7 7 0.8 0.5 6 6 months 0.4 5 0.6 5 0.3 4 4 0.4 0.2 3 3 0.2 2 0.1 2 1 1 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Years (1958-1999) Years (1958-1999)

25. Dynamic Green Ocean Model Process Observations N2-fixers calcifiers Phaeocystis diatoms picophytos nanophytos bacteria SiO2 CaCO3 DOM microzoo-plankton Foram-inifera zoopl. filter feeders mesozoo-plankton Validation Observations

26. Rhomboid Approach The rhomboids indicate the conceptual characteristics for models with different species and differing areas of primary focus. Rhomboid is broadest where model has its greatest functional complexity i.e., at the level of the target Organism. deYoung et al, 2004 But how to do it?

27. predators Calanus finmarchicus prey

28. BASIN Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and the dynamics of plankton and fish populations in the North Atlantic Ocean. A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North American countries

29. NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SHELF SEAS Climate forcing of ocean circulation (Heath et al.)

30. BASIN Aim To understand and simulate the population structure and dynamics of broadly distributed, and trophically and biogeochemically important plankton and fish species in the North Atlantic ocean to resolve the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, and thereby contribute to ocean management.

31. Modelling: Basic goals of BASIN • Hindcast modelling studies to understand the observed variability of the North Atlantic ecosystem over (at least) the last 50 years • Construction of scenarios of possible ecosystem changes in response to future climate variability We will focus on four major trophic components • Primary production and biogeochemical cycles • Zooplankton • Planktivorous fish • Demersal fish

32. US institutions: UNC-Chapel Hill LSU Rutgers NCAR Alaska Fisheries Science Center Japan: Hokkaido University JAMSTEC Tohuku Fisheries Lab Norway: Institute of Marine Research U of Bergen Bjerknes Center Proposal to NSF’s PIRE: Partnership for International Research & Education

33. Objectives • bring together key individuals from scientific cultures to continue already established partnerships that are developing ideas and approaches on using novel modeling approaches to quantify the impact of climate on marine ecosystems, and • teach young scientists and graduate students how to engage and develop international partnerships, and foster long-term programs for scientific and educational collaboration between the US, Japan and Norway, all of which are confronting potential severe changes in the structure and function of high latitude marine ecosystems in response to Earth’s changing climate and other anthropogenic stressors.