A vision for European high speed rail network May 2011 Alain Sauvant

1. A vision for European high speed rail networkMay 2011Alain Sauvant

2. A great success of high speed rail in France • 6,4% per year average annual traffic growth (passenger-km) from 1994 to 2009 • Doubles every 11 years • Modal split increasing • Main long distance mode • 51,9 billion high speed rail passenger-km vs 12,9 for airlines in 2009 / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

3. Modal split in France Up to 76% Modal split Blue = air, green = train, red = road / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

4. Many new high speed lines / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

5. Reasons for success (demand) • - Demand • Excellent to Good point to point travel times • More « useful » time during travel, compared to airlines or car • Direct access into city centres • Good frequencies • Affordable / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

6. Reasons for success (offer) • - Cost effective production of services and infrastructure • Through massification of flows (average of around 400 passengers per train) • Speed is also a productivity factor through faster rotation of capital • Standardization of infrastructure provision • Use of existing network to connect to territories / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

7. Reasons for success (environment) • - Environment friendly • 60 times less CO2 emissions than air transport • 30 times less CO2 emissions than road transport • - Helps to reduce oil dependency • - Excellent safety record • No fatality, no major injury in 30 years apart from level crossings / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

8. Into the future : Greater diversity in usage • - Greater diversity of use • From a mainly « big city (Paris) to medium city » to : • More « Trans-European » use, although probably not over 1000/1500 km, needing more interoperability (ERTMS…) • More « regional » use • More « medium city to medium city » use • Seamless integrated ticketing would ensure best integration of various uses / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

9. Network extensions : more diverse • More diverse • Medium traffic trunk lines (Tours Bordeaux 300 km, Le Mans Rennes 150 km, East 2 (150 km), Montpellier Nîmes bypass (70 km)) to be opened by 2017 • Smaller traffic lines in more distant future (national infrastructure masterplan) • Some of them designed for mixed freight traffic • Also some major trunk lines are coming towards saturation, so capacity improvements will be necessary, up to major new trunk lines e.g. Paris to Lyon • Design speed according to need (high for lines with big traffic, smaller otherwise) / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

10. Network extensions : democratic process • In any case, PPP or not • Planning well in advance is essential (first French masterplan in the early 90’s) • Acceptability by the general public of the new line is essential • « Public debates », organised by independant authority • Public utility declaration • Authorizing expropriation of land owners, with compensation • After land acquisition, and biodiversity treatment, construction may proceed / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

11. Network extensions through PPP • PPP design • Le Mans Rennes and Montpellier Nîmes to be implemented through Partnership contract • Private contractor will build and operate the line for 20 years or so • RFF will assume traffic risk, collect tolls and pay a rent to the private contractor, based mainly on availability and a few quality factors • Tours Bordeaux (SEA) (largest PPP in Europe 7 BE) to be implemented through « concession » • Private contractor will build, operate the line, collect tolls and assume most traffic risks for around 50 years • RFF is also building East 2 line through standard procurement to keep a benchmark / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

12. No two speed network • No « two speed network » where high speed lines would be excellent and the rest of the network would go down the drain • Keeping existing rail network in good condition (reasonable renewals) • Funded through productivity increases and more appropriate tolls pais by railway undertakings / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

13. Increasing efficiency of the system • - In high speed transport, through opening up to competition (from 2010 for international passenger transport, probably middle of the decade for national passenger transport) • Modality of competition to be discussed (open access, franchises, mix) • - For « natural monopolies » such as network managers, independent economic regulation will ensure greater efficiency • Better allocation of capacity though reform of infrastructure tariff structure (managed incentives to reduce congestion, to promote traffic growth where applicable) • Better use of the system through moving towards a clockfaced timetable • More efficient ponctuality management and maintenance planning through introduction of value analysis • More democratic principles for network management / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients

14. Conclusion • High potential for high speed in Europe • Highly efficient and environmentally friendly transport mode • Must build on that success to adapt to new uses (European, regional), to benefit from a new framework (opening-up to competition, regulation,…) • Infrastructure managers will play a pivotal role in this success / Réseau Ferré de France au service de ses nouveaux clients