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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report highlights the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes information on precipitation patterns, forecasts, and climatology.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 January 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days (7-13 January 2013), above-average precipitation was observed over central and southeastern Brazil. Below-average rainfall was found over the northern Amazon Basin, eastern Brazil and eastern Argentina. • For 14-20 January, above-average precipitation is predicted for southern and central sections of Northeast Brazil, southern Peru and Bolivia. Below-average precipitation is predicted for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina. • For 21-27 January, much above-average precipitation is predicted over central Brazil, and the southern half of Northeast Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted over southern and southeastern Brazil, Paraguay, northern Argentina, and the northern and central Amazon Basin.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, above-average precipitation was observed over central and southeastern Brazil. Below-average rainfall was found over the northern Amazon Basin, eastern Brazil and eastern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over central and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was mainly found over portions of the western Amazon Basin, Peru, Colombia, southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are much below average over the Brazilian Plateau, with deficits of 200-250 mm. • 90-day rainfall totals are slightly below average over the southern Amazon Basin and near average over southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the equatorial western Pacific and below average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. SSTs are near average in the equatorial Atlantic. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 5-11 Jan 2013, an anomalously strong upper-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (red C) was observed over low latitudes in the South Atlantic. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) was observed over northeastern Brazil, while rising motion was found over southeastern Brazil, Paraguay and the western Amazon Basin, consistent with the precipitation pattern shown in Slide 4. C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 5-11January 2013, near-average temperatures were observed in most of South America, with the exception of eastern Argentina where above-average temperatures were observed. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 14 January 2013– Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 14 January 2013– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (14-20 Jan), above-average precipitation is predicted for southern and central sections of Northeast Brazil, southern Peru and Bolivia. Below-average precipitation is predicted for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (21-27 Jan), much above-average precipitation is predicted over central Brazil, and the southern half of Northeast Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted over southern and southeastern Brazil, Paraguay, northern Argentina, and the northern and central Amazon Basin.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast not available Forecast from 7 Jan. 2013 Valid for 7-13 Jan. 2013 Observed 7-13 Jan 2013

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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