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Latin America in the American Age

Latin America in the American Age. The Dawn of the American Age Geography, Demography and Shale energy In the American Orbit Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela Brazil’s Day Ends The Rise of Mexico… …and The North American Drug War. Peter Zeihan

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Latin America in the American Age

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  1. Latin America in the American Age • The Dawn of the American Age • Geography, Demographyand Shale energy • In the American Orbit • Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela • Brazil’s Day Ends • The Rise of Mexico… …and The North American Drug War Peter Zeihan Association of American Manufacturers November 4

  2. Point of Comparison:The American Geography Integrated network over gigantic piece of useable land Unified, capital-rich polity Two oceans Massive insulation Direct access to both trading basins Largest market Largest ag producer/exporter Largest military

  3. Evolving Demography

  4. Shale:Acceptance • Groundwater contamination (porous v non) • The “toxicity” issue is about to vanish • Even without “approval” is already remaking the system

  5. and the Fallout Brazil’s Problem… • Extremely-capital intensive, extremely-capital poor • Paraguay and Uruguay have nowhere to turn • Argentina needs a pants-kick

  6. The SouthAmerican Geography • Sharp regional breaks • Infrastructure and economies of scale problematic • Needs cheap credit and strong commodity markets (but not as cheap/strong as Brazil!) 5500m 3500m

  7. In America’s Orbit:Colombia andVenezuela • Colombia: • Still a pocket country, but one w/ transport options (and a market!) • Venezuela: • One ideological mistake is wrecking the oil sector

  8. The First (Mexican) Problem:A Very Hostile Geography No rivers, few ports Low capital generation Mountainous, disassociated territories No infrastructure EcoS Will never be a strong state

  9. The Second (Mexican-American) “Problem”:An Economic Miracle Not to Be Missed China is losing the ability to subsidize its competitiveness Remember U.S. shale Young demographics generate growth (and cheap labor) Drug war makes Mexican labor more attractive

  10. The Fourth (American) Problem: America’s only Ghettoized Community The Third (Mexican-American) Problem: Not a Normal Border 2013 • 0.7t cu feet of natgas • $500b of bilateral trade • 350m legal border crossings 2020 • 3t cu feet of natgas • $650b of bilateral trade • 500m legal border crossings

  11. The North American Drug War From Miami Vice to cartels Supply chains

  12. National Stability:2020-2040

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