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Hydrological Forecasting Service in the Czech Republic during flood in June 2013

Learn about the hydrological forecasting service provided during the devastating June 2013 flood in Czech Republic, including the cause, impacts, and underestimations. These insights are crucial for improving flood preparedness and response in the future.

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Hydrological Forecasting Service in the Czech Republic during flood in June 2013

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  1. Hydrological Forecasting Service in the Czech Republic during flood in June 2013 Tomas Vlasak

  2. Division of Meteorology & Climatology Central Forecasting Office Meteorological Forecasting Dept. Hydrological Forecasting Dept. Field Hydrology Gauge Maintenance Applied Research Dept. MFD HFD Regional Forecasting Offices Division of Hydrology Regional Offices

  3. Flood in June 2013 • CAUSE: • low pressure formation travelling from the Mediterranean to the north east across central Europe • very intensive rain (> 100mm /24h) in narrow strip with lots of storms • high soil saturation • RESULT: • 100-year flood exceeded in 12 hydrological sites • 15 casualties • 550 000 000 EUR economic losses 24h rainfal [mm] Reccurence interval for hydrological response

  4. Flood in June 2013 • strong underestimation of QPF • missing signal of rainfall extremity (available NWM, precipitation ensembles) observed 24h rainfall sum QPF 24-hours sum (0 to 24h) lead time

  5. Flood in June 2013 • underestimation of rainfall-runoff model

  6. Flood in June 2013 • underestimation of therainfall-runoff model • better results in large-scale water basins with longer travel time of water

  7. Flood in June 2013 • Satisfying lead-time of thefirst flood warning • Strong underestimation of floodseverity Flooding released 2.6. 00:30) Flood warning released 31.5. 21:00) Flood watch (released 31.5. 21:00) Flood watch (released 30.5. 15:00)

  8. Thank you for your attention

  9. Flood risk x flood hazard flood occurrence probability of 3rd flood stage (flooding)

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