Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates

1. Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates

2. Climate and Agriculture • Climate is the major driver of agriculture • What to plant • Where to plant it • How to manage it • Soils play a major role • Other factors • Human needs, market availability & access, etc.

3. Farming is a Risky Business • Excess Rainfall, Flooding • Drought • Freezes • Wind • Hurricanes, Tornados • Seasonal variations in temperature, timing and amounts of rainfall – not as dramatic, but major impacts

4. Daily Weather EffectsTemperature • Vegetative and reproductive development, duration of crop season • Leaf area expansion • Photosynthesis • Dry matter partitioning, grain vs. vegetative • Potential evapotranspiration, water stress • Soil organic matter transformations, nutrient availability

5. Daily Weather Effects Rainfall • Soil Water Availability • Water stress and its effects on growth processes Solar Radiation • Photosynthesis • Potential evapotranspiration, thus actual evapotranspiration and plant water stress • Temperature in soil & canopy (microclimate)

6. Daily Weather Effects CO2 • Photosynthesis • Potential evapotranspiration & crop water use Daylength • Reproductive development • Dry matter partitioning

7. Climate ChangeIncrease in CO2 and Temperature

8. Climate ChangeIncrease in CO2 and Temperature

9. Climate Change and Climate Variability The impact of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production and the potential for mitigation and adaptation • Future issues can only be studied with computer simulation models • “What-If” type of scenarios • Risks and uncertainties associated with using models • Involvement of stakeholders

10. Climate Forecast Applications: • Bridging the gap between producers and users • of climate information • Discover user needs for climate information and perceptions of climate risks • Evaluate usefulness and limitations of climate forecasts • Translate climate forecasts into decision support for agriculture • Demonstrate successful forecast applications working in close collaboration with agricultural extension

11. Climate Change: How is Agriculture Responding? • Support Industries, Institutions • Research (e.g., soil carbon sequestration, technologies for production, harvesting, storing, packaging, transport, and marketing) • Plant breeding, producing heat/drought tolerant & disease resistant crops • Producers, local level • High interest in risk management & climate variability • Long term investments?

12. Local Lessons Learned • High level of interest in weather • Interest in climate, but this interest has to be developed locally • Individual farmers, ranchers, foresters • Institutions (i.e., Extension, researchers) • Research alone is not sufficient; participatory, co-learning approach is essential • Extension Service involvement is key to successful delivery of information to farmers and other stakeholders

13. Local Lessons Learned • Integrated initiatives are needed, participatory approach for co-learning and dissemination involving a wide range of talents and institutions • Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on changes in climate variability and extreme events • Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on farmers being able to prepare and adapt