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Preliminary Modeling Results

Preliminary Modeling Results. Rhode Island GHG Action Plan Renewable Portfolio Standards. Presentation Overview Modeling approach and input assumptions Results for three RPS cases – 20%, 15%, 10% renewables by 2020 Results for natural gas sensitivity cases

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Preliminary Modeling Results

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  1. Preliminary Modeling Results Rhode Island GHG Action Plan Renewable Portfolio Standards • Presentation Overview • Modeling approach and input assumptions • Results for three RPS cases – 20%, 15%, 10% renewables by 2020 • Results for natural gas sensitivity cases • Comparison with earlier analysis (treatment of NYS renewables) Stephen BernowAlison BailieTellus InstituteJanuary 24, 2002

  2. Modeling Approach • Our approach is to consider RPS in MA, CT, and RI together and model the NE power pool as a whole. • Cost and carbon reduction estimates are relative to the EIA base case with no RPS in CT and only partial fulfillment of MA RPS • Costs and carbon reduction are allocated to RI based on fraction of new renewable generation required by RI RPS, compared with total of MA + CT + RI • This approach shares costs rather than assigning highest or lowest cost to RI

  3. Modeling Approach • Assumptions for MA and CT RPS • Assume MA RPS has renewable targets increasing to 7% for new resources by 2012 and remains at this level to 2020 (existing stays at 5% throughout) • Assume CT RPS increases to 4% class I and 7% class II by 2011 and remains at 2011 levels until 2020, assume standard offer loophole is corrected in CT • Assume that MA and CT do not allow purchase of NYS renewable credits

  4. Modeling Approach • Assumptions for Rhode Island RPS cases • Wind generation credits can be imported from New York State with no extra cost and without importing any electricity (unlike the GIS requirements analyzed previously) • Three RPS cases for Rhode Island, with renewable generation achieving 20%, 15% or 10% of total sales by 2020 • Also looked at 20% and 15% cases with higher natural gas price assumptions • Compared results from 20% case with 20% case with NYS wind meeting GIS requirements (earlier analysis)

  5. Input Assumptions • Wind resources in model adjusted based on recent mapping analysis by TrueWind • Capital costs for wind decline with learning but increase as best sites are used ($1200/kW in 2005, $1500/kW in 2020 including interconnection costs) • Biomass prices based on EIA assumptions but removed demolition debris from supply (biomass price about $2.75/MMBTU in New England)

  6. Cost of new wind plant including interconnections costs to grid (approximately $275/kW) New England costs reflect new plant in that year under GIS requirements (most wind development occurs in NE) New York costs reflect new plant in that year under wind credit purchases (most wind development occurs in NYS)

  7. Input Assumptions, cont. • Natural gas prices based on EIA assumptions but will fluctuate with natural gas demand (sensitivities on gas prices discussed later)

  8. Renewable Generation in NERI fraction

  9. Renewable Energy Credit Prices Real levelized credit prices (cents/kWh): 20% 1.4615% 1.2210% 0.81 all price and costs in real 2000$

  10. Emission Reductions

  11. Changes in Electricity Prices Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 cents/kWh)

  12. Changes in Average Residential Energy Bill - monthly Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 $) Electricity Bill Natural Gas Bill Current average residential monthly bills are $80 / month electricity, $90/month natural gas based on monthly consumption of 704 kWh electricityand 9.5 MMBTU natural gas (typical of house in RI heated with natural gas)

  13. Generation from New Renewables 2020 - Rhode Island Portion • Most avoided generation is natural gas

  14. Rhode Island RPS Impactsregional CO2 emission reductions represent 9% (20% case), 6% (15% case) and 1% (10% case) of estimated total Rhode Island emissions in 2020

  15. Components of Costs and Benefits of Rhode Island RPSregional (cumulative net present value, 2000-2020, million 2000$)

  16. Rhode Island RPS Impacts on Rhode Island • No NG price feedback in New York State • Including NYS wind credit as cost to Rhode Island

  17. Components of Costs and Benefits of Rhode Island RPS on Rhode Island (cumulative net present value, 2000-2020, million 2000$)

  18. Natural gas price – Sensitivity cases • Adjusted model to use higher natural gas prices – prices increase over time compared with the base case • Prices will change with natural gas demand • Compared the RPS 20% and RPS 15% cases

  19. Renewable Energy Credit Prices Real levelized credit prices (cents/kWh): 20% 1.4615% 1.18 High NG price20% 1.2815% 1.15 all price and costs in real 2000$

  20. Emission Reductions Emission reduction depends on type of avoided generation, higher NG prices mean less NG in avoided generation and more coal or more renewables – more coal in base case = greater emission reductionsmore renewables in base case = lower emission reductionsdifferent mixes of avoided in different years

  21. Changes in Electricity Prices Due to NG price increase Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 cents/kWh)

  22. Changes in Average Residential Energy Bill – monthlyDue to NG price increase Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 $) Electricity Bill Natural Gas Bill Current average residential monthly bills are $80 / month electricity, $90/month natural gas based on monthly consumption of 704 kWh electricityand 9.5 MMBTU natural gas (typical of house in RI heated with natural gas)

  23. Rhode Island RPS Impactsregional CO2 emission reductions for high NG price cases represent 8% (20% case) and 6% (15% case) of estimated total Rhode Island emissions in 2020

  24. Rhode Island RPS Impacts in Rhode Island

  25. Changes in Electricity Prices – comparison of treatment of NYS wind Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 cents/kWh) for 20% RPS Wind credits refers to current analysis – RI can purchase renewable credits from NYS without importing the electricity GIS requirements refer to earlier analysis – RI must import equivalent electricity from NYS, which increases the cost

  26. Rhode Island RPS Impacts – comparison of treatment of NYS wind in Rhode Island

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