PCD Impact Assessment on Food Security in Tanzania

1. PCD Impact Assessment on Food Security in Tanzania Consultation Workshop Module 2 Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) & European Centre for Development Policy Management ECDPM, 17 September 2014 Dar Es Salaam

2. On the menu today I. Introducing the PCD IA pilot in Tanzania: rationale and history, scope and objectives -Coffee break- II. Module 2: the Tanzania Food Security Profile Rationale State of food and nutrition security Food security System The agro-food sector: characteristics and challenges The agricultural trade profile The policy framework III. Outstanding issues and identifying relevant OECD policies ECDPM

3. I. Introducing the PCD Impact Assessment on food security in Tanzania ECDPM

4. Policy coherence for development (PCD) • The Rationale Domestic policies of OECD member countries (e.g. agriculture, trade, investment, science, migration) can have a spill-over impact on developing countries,… … that impact is not necessarily coherent with the objectives formulated under the policy for development cooperation of that OECD country PCD is a conceptual tool aimed at addressing such incoherencies to the benefit of development objectives, e.g. food security ECDPM

5. For example ECDPM Source: OECD, 2014.

6. Prevalent definitions: PCD = … EU “The EU seeks to minimise contradictions and to build synergies between policies other than development cooperation that have an impact on developing countries, for the benefit of overseas development” • OECD • “The pursuit of development objectives through the systematic promotion of mutually reinforcing policy actions on the part of both OECD and development countries”. Two-fold implication:“do no harm” and beyond: Make sure all policies are development-friendly Ensure the proactive promotion of development objectives in other policies: exploit synergies ECDPM

7. Prevalent definitions: PCD ≠ … Diverging interpretations and use of the concept of PCD. PCD IS NOT (only): • Coordination with other policies • Harmonization with other donors • Adjustment of development policy to other policies (it is PC for Development) ECDPM

8. Measuring PCD = one of the key PCD building blocks ECDPM

9. Context • OECD, EU and Member States have strong commitments to enforce PCD, frontrunners include: NL, SE, FIN, DK • 2008 OECD Ministerial declaration confirmed commitment to promote PCD, incl. measuring the effects of OECD members’ policies on international development objectives. • EU 2012 Council Conclusions on PCD ask for ‘a more evidence-based approach, to further improve monitoring, implementation and follow-up. Relevant baselines, indicators and targets should also be developed including for measuring the impact of PCD in a way which demonstrates clear development results’. ECDPM

10. Different ways to monitor PCD • Ex-ante check lists andimpact assessments of OECD member countries’ policy proposals • Ex-post assessments of OECD policy impact at country-level This is where this research project comes in ECDPM

11. The project: how did we get here? • 2012: OECD asked ECDPM to develop “a methodology for country-level impact assessments of PCD on food security” • July 2013: presentation of a draft toward a methodology • Now two pilot projects to apply, test and fine-tune this methodology in: Tanzania (FIN & OECD) Burkina Fasso (SWISS & OECD) ECDPM

12. Objectives General objective: to develop a methodology for identifying and assessing the impacts (+/-) of OECD policies on food security in individual developing countries Specific objectives: • Help OECD DAC members in pursuing their PCD policy objectives through providing evidence for policy change domestically and for programme design at country level(e.g. more information to address trade-offs between internal goals & negative externalities on developing countries) • Enable partner countries and civil society to advocate for improved PCD and to address the impacts of incoherencies. ECDPM

13. The Methodology: how does it look like? • 5 key principles: i) stakeholder involvement; ii) deductive reasoning; iii) disaggregation of impact; iv) mixed methods. • For a variety of audiences and users: public good Meant to be done relatively quickly and with limited resources. Modular and flexible. No straightjacket that researchers have to follow to the letter. • Designed to pick up on the effects ofpublicpolicies. While acknowledging the effects of other external factors beyond the scope of this study (e.g. Climate Change) ECDPM

14. A modular, step-by-step approach 1. Getting started: considerations and decisions before launching the exercise 2. The country food security profile: the FS system, determinants and FS situation 3. Establish a route of impact: causal linkages with OECD policies 4. In-country contextualisation and verification of causal linkages > response strategies 5. Communication strategy and follow up

15. Module 1: Getting started • Very straightforward: key factors to consider before starting the assessment: What country/ group of countries? Country buy in/ local partners. Team composition. ECDPM

16. Module 2: Country food security profile Output indicators OECD Policies Other factors (e.g. other policies, Climate change,…) ECDPM

17. Module 3: Verifying causal linkages • The idea is to take the potentially relevant OECD policies, identified in module 2, and to draw linkages “on paper” of how the impact would be transmitted. • Main aim of the module is to make the IA solid from a “theoretical” point of view • Relatively straightforward for some effects (e.g. tariffs), very complicated for others (e.g. agricultural subsidies and price transmission). ECDPM

18. Module 4: In-country research • Verify theory through field research • Three aims: Contextualize and further explore the theoretical causal chains developed in module 3 Formulate conclusions. Define response strategy options. - for OECD country policies. - for adaptation/advocacy strategies by local partners. ECDPM

19. Module 5: communication • Messages will differ depending on the targeted audience (NGOs, in country embassies, partner govnts, etc). • Communication Plan should formulate -What information is relevant to which stakeholder audience How to best approach which audience, through which communication channels ECDPM

20. So, where does this workshop come in? • Stakeholder involvement is one of the 5 overarching principles of the methodology: Not an (exclusively) desk-based project Should be a “process” as much as a study. Inclusive, consultative process per module to enhance chances of follow-up. Today: • We present the methodology, • … discuss initial findings of Module 2… • and pick your brains on what could be the potentially relevant OECD policy externalities for analysis in Module 3. ECDPM