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eCommerce Next Wave: Productivity and Innovation

eCommerce Next Wave: Productivity and Innovation. Julie Meringer Group Director Forrester Research Ltd. Theme. Leading organizations must use the Net to boost productivity and drive innovation. Agenda. What is the state of eCommerce worldwide?

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eCommerce Next Wave: Productivity and Innovation

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  1. eCommerce Next Wave: Productivity and Innovation Julie Meringer Group Director Forrester Research Ltd.

  2. Theme Leading organizations must use the Net to boost productivity and drive innovation

  3. Agenda • What is the state of eCommerce worldwide? • How will productivity play a role in eCommerce? • What new innovations will drive economic growth through 2010?

  4. Average increase: 17% Average decrease: 20% European firms slow IT spending in 2002 “Has your IT budget changed compared to last year?“ Source: Forrester Q1 2002 European survey of 212 technology leaders

  5. Economic downturn Economic downturn Weak company financial performance Weak company financial performance Decreased importance of eBusiness Decreased importance of eBusiness Increased use of outsourcing Increased use of outsourcing Why? Economic malaise “If your budget decreased, how important were these factors?“ Not at allimportant Veryimportant Better efficiency with fewer resources Completion of last year’s projects Centralization of IT Merger and acquisition activity Source: Forrester Q1 2002 European survey of 212 technology leaders

  6. Companies expect spending to recharge . . . “How will your technology budget and headcount change in 2005?“ Source: Forrester Q1 2002 European survey of 212 technology leaders

  7. 2002 2001 Overall <$1B G3,500 G3,500 Percent of 3.1% 3.5% 3.0% 3.5% revenues IT executives 3.4% 3.5% spent on eBusiness Business executives 2.5% 3.6% 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% Percent of revenues IT executives 5.0% spent on IT Business executives 4.7% Base: executives at North American companies 2002 vs 2001 Tech Spending

  8. % of revenues on technology initiatives 13.9% Financial 3.9% 6.4% Distribution 3.4% Technology and 5.4% 4.5% business services 4.1% Manufacturing 1.6% 9.4% Other 6.1% 2002 IT 2002 eBusiness Base: executives at less-than-$1 billion companies

  9. % of revenue from eCommerce Total Technology and telecom Chemicals and petroleum Services Distribution Primary production and supply Financial (noninsurance) Retail Finished goods mfg. Insurance Electricity, gas, 2002 and sanitation In 5 years 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Base: executives at G3,500 companies

  10. 2002 2006 $264.1 $2,645.6 $28.2 $246.3 $341.6 $1,677.3 $7,469.0 Total: $2,293.5 $2,458.6 (US$ billions) Total: $12,837.3 North America (US$ billions) Asia-Pacific Western Europe Rest of world Forecast: Worldwide Online Trade Growth, 2002 To 2006

  11. % of total sales in 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 Total (US$ billions) $2,293.5 $3,878.8 $6,201.1 $9,240.6 $12,837.3 18.4% North America $1,677.3 $2,642.2 $3,939.8 $5,563.8 $7,469.0 26.0% United States $1,610.4 $2,527.6 $3,759.7 $5,296.9 $7,091.6 26.0% Canada $55.1 $91.3 $136.2 $188.6 $245.6 20.0% Mexico $11.8 $23.3 $43.9 $78.3 $131.8 10.0% Asia-Pacific $341.6 $622.8 $1,087.9 $1,766.3 $2,645.6 11.9% Japan $200.5 $359.2 $625.4 $1,056.8 $1,650.2 14.6% Australia $47.8 $87.7 $151.1 $224.1 $301.7 22.4% Korea, Republic of $29.4 $55.2 $97.1 $156.8 $231.9 17.5% Taiwan $29.0 $56.1 $101.8 $158.3 $223.8 19.6% Hong Kong $15.6 $28.8 $50.0 $73.8 $98.8 22.1% All other $19.3 $35.7 $62.5 $96.4 $139.2 2.1% Western Europe $246.3 $560.8 $1,076.7 $1,747.5 $2,458.6 19.3% Germany $60.5 $137.6 $262.2 $419.3 $580.9 21.0% United Kingdom $51.7 $113.1 $210.1 $330.6 $454.6 21.0% France $36.7 $85.2 $165.0 $269.5 $381.8 20.0% Italy $28.9 $68.4 $135.9 $226.7 $322.6 19.0% Spain $6.2 $16.3 $38.5 $76.1 $125.5 15.0% All other $62.3 $140.2 $264.9 $425.2 $593.3 19.7% Rest of world $28.2 $53.0 $96.7 $163.1 $264.1 4.0% (numbers have been rounded)

  12. B2B B2C Raw materials Manufacturing Distribution Households Online Online trade % trade % North America $7,249.2 59.1% North America $219.8 39.1% Asia-Pacific $2,460.4 20.0% Asia-Pacific $185.2 33.0% Western Europe $2,320.3 18.9% Western Europe $138.3 24.6% Latin America $93.1 0.8% Latin America $7.0 1.3% Eastern Europe $83.9 0.7% Eastern Europe $6.3 1.1% Africa and Africa and $68.6 0.6% $5.2 0.9% Middle East Middle East Total B2B $12,275.5 100% Total B2C $561.8 100% (US$ billions) (numbers have been rounded) B2B and B2C Trade As A Percentage Of Total Trade In 2006

  13. Agenda • What is the state of eCommerce worldwide? • How will productivity play a role in eCommerce? • What new innovations will drive economic growth through 2010?

  14. IT spending growth in percent

  15. IT spending growth in millions of euros

  16. Rationalization 2000-2003 • Net as integrated channel • Control costs • ROI-focused spending Experimentation 1995-2000 • Web as separate business • Building presence Renewed innovation • Ad hoc budgeting 2002-2010 • Intercompany collaboration • Gain advantage • Measured innovation Three phases of Net investment Growth in investment 1995 2000 2005 2010

  17. Internally focused operational efficiencies (% change in from hardware, services, output per and ERP investments unit of labor input) Externally focused investments in technologies like supply chain and CRM yield efficiency gains in three key areas: A new wave of productivity IT productivity wave: Productivity: eBusiness productivity wave: 1. Lower transaction costs 2. Improved market information 3. Intensified new competition 1990 2000 2012

  18. Foundation Expansion Normalization 16 1.2% 0.8% 1.7% 12 Serve 46% Total eBusiness productivity gain 8 Produce 45% 4 Design: 9% 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 eBusiness adds 15% productivity by 2012

  19. Agenda • What is the state of eCommerce worldwide? • How will productivity play a role in eCommerce? • What new innovations will drive economic growth through 2010?

  20. An executable Internet that supplants today’s Web The X Internet refers to two “Xs” An extended Internet that connects to the real world

  21. Endpoints Executable Internet builds conversations Server

  22. Account summary The Web only provides answers How much is in my account? The Web

  23. What should I do with my account? Financial services tools (executables) The executable Net creates a conversation The executable Internet Two-way conversation about my account

  24. Extended endpoints Endpoints Server Extended Internet -- an Internet of things

  25. Internet computers Digital Internet users Vehicles Physical Telephones Buildings The X Internet connects digital to physical

  26. WhereNet devices simplify supply logistics Temp: 52° F Fuel: 1/2 tank Door: Closed • Tag is integrated with door, fuel, and temperature sensors • Sensor data is transmitted every few minutes

  27. Colors indicate trailer status and alert conditions WhereNet devices simplify supply logistics Yard inventory is conveyed to users through maps and reports

  28. Real-time alignment of supply and demand • GPS-enabled truck fleet • 20-minute delivery window • Savings: $100 million

  29. Summary • Leading firms must harness technology to drive productivity • Productivity via technology is eCommerce’s next wave • As productivity takes hold, innovation will reignite around the X Internet

  30. Thank you Julie Meringer +44 (0) 20 7323 7690 jmeringer@forrester.co.uk www.forrester.com

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