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XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011

Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics Andrea Montani C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC Hydro MeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy. XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011.

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XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011

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  1. Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi-2014 Winter OlympicsAndrea MontaniC. Marsigli, T. PaccagnellaARPA-SIMCHydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy XIII COSMO meeting Rome (I), 5-8 September 2011 A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  2. After Athens (Summer 2004) and Turin (Winter 2006), for the third time in a decade the Olympic Games being hosted by a COSMO-country. • Next Olympics and Paralympics Winter Games will take place in Sochi, Russia (7-23 February and 7-16 March 2014). • In the past occasions, the involvement of the full consortium was limited in terms of implementation/support of new modelling products. • As for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics, Roshydromet is organizing a blended RDP/FDP (Research and Development Project / Forecast Demonstration Project) under the auspices of WMO: FROST-2014 (Forecasting and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed). • A new COSMO PP (CORSO) is being set-up to avoid duplication of work and to better coordinate COSMO activities within this RDP/FDP. Introduction A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  3. Some geography… Sochi (RU) Rome (I) A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  4. Detlev!!! Tiziana!!! Andrea!!! A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  5. COSMO vs FROST-2014 • COSMO should perform a number of activities related to FROST-2014: • deterministic forecasting (FDP/RDP initiatives), • probabilistic forecasting: • b1) FDP initiatives (“clone” of COSMO-LEPS over the Sochi area), • b2) RDP initiatives(development of a convective-scale COSMO LAM-EPS for the Sochi area), • post-processing and product generation (FDP/RDP initiatives), • verification (FDP/RDP initiatives). A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  6. FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) initiatives SOCHMEL: SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system (“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS) Horizontal resolution: 7 km ( SOCHMEL7). Vertical resolution: 40 model levels. Forecast range: 72 hours. Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC. Ensemble size: 10 members. Initial and boundary conditions: interpolated from selected ECMWF EPS members. Soil field initialisation: either using DWD Soil Moisture Analysis fields (like in COSMO-LEPS) or from hindcast COSMO run. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  7. SOCHMEL suite @ ECMWF: present prototype 10 Representative Members driving the 10 COSMO-model integrations (weighted according to the cluster populations) employing either Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch convection scheme (randomly choosen) + perturbations in turbulence scheme and in physical parameterisations this prototype is ready! 3 levels 500 700 850 hPa 4 variables Z U V Q d d+1 d+2 d+3 Cluster Analysis and RM identification Cluster Analysis and RM identification ECMWF EPS 2 time steps clustering interval Black-Sea area Complete Linkage SOCHMEL clustering area • Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+72h; • initial time: 00UTC, 12UTC; • computer time (~ 2 million BUs for 2012) provided by an ECMWF Special Project; • suite managed by ARPA-SIMC; • contributions from ECMWF member states could be needed in the future. SOCHMEL Integration Domain A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  8. Types of perturbations • As for types and values, the results from CSPERT experimentation are followed (* denotes default values for COSMO v4.12 ): • convection_scheme (either Tiedtke* of Kain-Fritsch), • tur_len (either 150, or 500*, or 1000), • pat_len (either 500*, or 2000), • crsmin (either 50, or 150*, or 200), • rat_sea (either 1, or 20*, or 40), • rlam_heat (either 0.1, or 1*, or 5), • mu_rain (either 0.5* or 0), • cloud_num (either 5x10^8* or 5x10^7). A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  9. Submitted end of April 2011! A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  10. RDP (Research and Development Project) initiatives SOCHMEL28: convective-scale ensemble system (possible prototype) Horizontal resolution: 2.8 km. Vertical resolution: 50 model levels. Forecast range: 48 hours. Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC. Ensemble size: 5 members. Boundary conditions: either from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems. Initial conditions: either from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems. Data assimilation: … Provision of wind-gust forecasts using different diagnostic algorithms. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  11. Important ingredients for a successful ensemble • Have a clear division between FDP and RDP activities / commitments. • Develop experience with the use of probabilities by local forecasters. • Need of feedback on the top-priority products to be generated / visualised. • Computer time. • Timeliness in product delivery. • Observations to assess the quality of the system in the development phase. • … A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  12. Access to real-time ECMWF data via an independent way from COSMO-LEPS time-critical application. • Computer time: Special Project at ECMWF may not be enough, especially if RDP component is implemented. • Timeliness of delivery: test data-flow as soon as possible, ensure solidity to the suite. • Need to downscale information at local sites over complex topography. • Forecasters do not always like probabilities. • End-users “hate” probabilities. • … Potential problems and open issues Timetable (from FROST-2014) Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter. Trial: 2012/13 winter. Olympics: 2014 winter. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  13. Thank you ! A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  14. Outline • Introduction to Sochi-2014: • What is it? • What has to do with COSMO? • COSMO ensemble activities within FROST-2014: • introduction to SOCHMEL (the SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system); • methodology; • phases of development; • planned activity. • Final remarks. A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  15. COSMO-LEPS (developed at ARPA-SIMC) What is it? It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling, including Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland). Why? It was developed to combine the advantages of global-model ensembles with the high-resolution details gained by the LAMs, so as to identify the possible occurrence of high-impact and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …)  generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the forecast of high-impact weather in the short and early-medium range (up to fc+132h) A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  16. BUILDING THE ENSEMBLE: SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE MEMBERS (3) EPS 00 UTC (51 members) BOLAM 5 Representative Members Cluster Analysis COSMO EPS 12 UTC (51 members) WRF Multimodel Ensemble 15 members EPS 00 UTC (51 members) 16 Representative Members Cluster Analysis COSMO LEPS EPS 12 UTC (51 members) Multianalysis Model Perturbed Ensemble 16 members A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  17. Deterministic modelling: • 1-km COSMO has never been tested in winter in the operational mode; what about support from the model developers? • Are there sufficient computer resources at RosHydroMet to run the 1-km model on a reasonable-size domain (but what is the reasonable domain size for Sochi)? • Downscaling from 7-km to 1 km can give rise to spin up problems at the early stage of the forecast. Doubts and open issues • Ensemble modelling: • Forecasters do not always like probabilities (at any scale!) • End-users “hate” probabilities. • Verification: • RosHydroMet can, most likely, provide the project partners with additional in-situ observations not normally available on the GTS. • Verification: methodology and observations (the same for all models!). A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

  18. Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter • test data flow, products delivery • Trial: 2012/13 winter • Olympics: 2014 winter. Timetable A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

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