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Fire Growth Modeling Principles, Concepts, Development of New Model, Examples and Live Demo

Fire Growth Modeling Principles, Concepts, Development of New Model, Examples and Live Demo. Integrating Fire and Forest Management, February 25-28, 2002, Hinton, AB. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts. Types of Fire Growth Models.

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Fire Growth Modeling Principles, Concepts, Development of New Model, Examples and Live Demo

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  1. Fire Growth Modeling Principles, Concepts, Development of New Model, Examples and Live Demo Integrating Fire and Forest Management, February 25-28, 2002, Hinton, AB

  2. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Types of Fire Growth Models • Approaches to Propagating Fire Spread • Cellular Propagation ( Raster ) • Wave Propagation ( Elliptical ) • Stochastic Propagation • Time Frame • Short-term ( 1 - 5 days ) • Long-term ( weekly / monthly ) • Search Mechanisms for Raster Models • Raster • Hash-link • Symmetrical • Asymmetrical

  3. Elliptical Models FireBRAND Gwynfor Richards Prometheus Canadian Agencies Farsite Mark Finney Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Examples of Fire Growth Models Raster Models Wildfire - Bernie Todd PFAS - Kerry Anderson ARCView Rams Model Others - FireNB - Ugo Feunekes - Remsoft Inc. PBMS - Tome Grimes, Evergreen

  4. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Information Required to Run a Fire Growth Model Required • Fuel Information ( cell-based … ie. 25, 50 100 m ) • Fire Information ( start location, times and shape ) • Hourly Weather Data, Wind Speed & Direction • Rate of Spread Equations Desirable • Elevation Information • Fire Line Information • Fire Construction Efficiency Equations

  5. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Fire Growth Models Should ….. Allow User Interactions to • Create Different Fire Scenarios • Change Fire Simulations • Change Weather Values • Change Fire Breaks / Fire Lines • Model Fire Extinguishment • Model Fire Spotting and Breaching Desirable Outputs • Maps of Fire Perimeters and Area by Time • Maps of Actual Fire Behavior ( ROS, HFI, CFB ) • Maps of Potential of Fire Behavior • Tabular Spatial Hourly Statistics Be Easy to Use and Integrate into Operational and GIS Environments

  6. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Rate of Spread Equations - CFFDRS Developed by Setting Fires under Different Fuel and Weather Conditions and Monitoring the Results • Early work - 2 minute test fires ( 1931 – 1961 ) • Current work monitors the crown fire capability in large forest experimental plots (ICFME)

  7. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts The Ellipse is the Basic Concept of CFFDRS • 1ST Developed by Van Wagner in 1969 • Length / Breadth Ratio • Fire Growth - Head Fire / Flank Fire / Back Fire • First applied (Sanderlin and Sunderson 1975) • Fire literature (Anderson et. al. 1982) • Four vertice technique (French et. al. 1990, French 1992) • Differential equation (Richards 1990, 1995)

  8. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Raster Based Models • Works on a Cellular or Raster Basis • Uses the Theory of CFFDRS Ellipse • but a square is not a ellipse • 8 Point is the Simplest Model, also 16, 32 Point • Easy to Program • Does not Use the Complex Mathematical Equations • In Elliptical Models

  9. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Raster Based Models - Search Mechanisms • Different Search Mechanisms to try to Replicate the Ellipse • Raster Calculations can be Symmetrical or Asymmetrical • Symmetrical - 8 point / 16 point / 32 point • More points the better the search • Asymmetrical - 12 point / 20 point • Better than Asymmetrical 8 Point 16 Point 32 Point 12 Point Symmetric Asymmetric Good Really Good Better Best

  10. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Raster Based Models – Errors in the Elliptical Calculation • Error of Calculation in Multi-Point Models • Error Exists with Fast ROS in Homogeneous Fuels • Error is Less at Higher Search Levels ( 16, 32, 20 ) 8 Point 16 Point 32 Point Error increases as wind speed increases

  11. Fire Growth Modeling – Principles and Concepts Elliptical Model Calculation • Calculations are based on complex mathematical • differential equations • Small wavelets around the perimeter of the ellipse • Reduces error calculation in raster technique • Works well in all fuels under all wind conditions • More realistic results – reduces tear-drop problem Raster Example Elliptical Example

  12. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus Why Prometheus ? In Greek mythology, Prometheus was a “ForeThinker”. “All arts, all skills, all men owe to the ForeThinker.” He stole fire from Zeus to give back to humanity

  13. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus The Need We need a fire growth model that is designed to work in the Canadian fuel complexes and that is based on fire behavior conditions as defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System ( CFFDRS ). Also, the model should incorporate the latest - • Equations for Elliptical Fire Growth Modeling • Fire Behavior / Science Integration Methods • Diurnal Weather Modeling Techniques And be applicable to - • Operational and Strategic Fire Suppression Planning • Landscape Modeling

  14. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus The Purpose The purpose of this project is to develop, customize, and implement a physically-based, deterministic fire growth model that will allow for the operational and strategic assessments of spatial fire behaviour potential on the Canadian landscape.

  15. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM The Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model - Prometheus The Objectives • To develop a spatially-explicit, wave propagation fire growth model • that will simulate fire spread over a landscape on an hourly or daily basis. • To demonstrate the application of the FGM in the operational, real-time • prediction of fire growth for escaped wildfires and prescribed fires. • To strategically apply the FGM to determine the potential threat that • an individual wildfire or multiple wildfires may pose to selected • values-at-risk and the effectiveness of possible mitigative strategies • (e.g. fuel management). • To develop a FGM as a stand alone application that is easy to use • and integrate with other applications ( ie. landscape modeling )

  16. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Potential Applications Operational Fire Suppression • Prediction of wildfire behaviour for : • Escape wildfire fire situations • Prescribed burn planning. • Primary Users • Fire suppression organizations • Necessary Features : • Deterministic, real-time • FBP system equations • Single / Multiple ignitions • Multiple day simulations • Daily / hourly weather • Spatial fuels and topography • Point or polygon ignitions • Fuel Breaks • Fire Line Construction • Breaching of Fire Breaks

  17. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Strategic Management Planning Potential Applications Evaluating threat to key values-at-risk Conduct “what-if” scenarios in a planning mode to determine the threat of potential wildfires to important values (communities, recreation, industries, timber areas, etc.) • Primary Users • Land / resource managers • Fire managers Los Alamos, 2000

  18. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Strategic Management Planning Potential Applications Assessing wildfire threat mitigation strategies Assess the effectiveness of alternative forest management strategies at reducing the threat of large fires. In Relation to : • Harvest scheduling • Cut block design • Silviculture • Stand density management • Level of Use • Stand • Compartment • Landscape Level • Primary Users • Land / resource managers • Fire managers

  19. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Strategic Management Planning Potential Applications Evaluate Burn Probabilities across a Landscape Use stochastic modeling to produce a burn probability map for all points on the landscape under different forest / fuel and weather conditions. • Primary Users • Land / resource managers • Fire managers • Level of Use • Landscape level • Desired Features • Stochastic simulation model • Link to spatial timber supply models • Link to values at risk to produce quantitative threat assessment

  20. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Potential Applications Strategic Management Planning Function of Fire as a Landscape Disturbance Use a process based fire growth model to investigate the role of fire in establishing and maintaining landscape patterns • Primary Users • Land / resource managers • Landscape ecologists • Fire researchers • Fire managers • Level of Use • Landscape level • Desired Features • Requires succession models for vegetation, stand structure, etc. • Link to landscape disturbance models

  21. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Potential Applications Teaching and Training Consequence modeling of “what-if” scenarios. • Primary Users • Fire Suppression organizations • Companies • Educational institutes

  22. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach Project Scope Fire Management Agencies ( Operational ) Landscape Disturbance Simulation/Modelling Land/Forest Managers ( Government/Industry ) Canadian Fire Growth Model Project Team Fire Research ( CFS ) Fire Propagation Algorithm ( Brandon University ) Software Engineers ( Ramsoft,Victoria, BC )

  23. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach Project Contributors • Alberta Forest Protection Division • Alberta Ecological Landscape Division • British Columbia Forest Service • CFS • Foothills Model Forest • Manitoba Conservation Fire Program • Millar Western Industries • Parks Canada • Ontario Ministry of Lands and Forest • Quebec Ministry of Forests, SOPFEU • Resources, Wildfire and • Economic Development, NWT • Saskatchewan Environment and • Resource Management • Yukon - Indian and Northern Affairs Canada

  24. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach Project Design • Project Steering Committee • Cordy Tymstra - Project Leader ( Alberta LFS ) • Gary Mandrusiak ( Alberta LFS ) • Kelvin Hirsch, Bernie Todd ( Canadian Forest Service ) • Gwynfor Richards ( Brandon University ) • Rob McAlpine (Ontario MNR) • Technical Sub-Committees

  25. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Team Approach Technical Sub-Committees : Ensures the Integration of the Latest Fire Behaviour / Science Technology • Spread AlgorithmGwynfor Richards ( Brandon University ) • Spotting and Breaching of Fire BreaksMarty Alexander ( Canadian For. Service ) • Diurnal Weather ModelingJudi Beck ( BC Ministry of Forests ) • Fire ExtinguishmentKerry Anderson ( Canadian For. Service ) • Fuels / FBP TypingMike Etches ( Parks Canada ) • Data I/O StandardsHua Sun ( AB Land and Forest Service ) • ProgrammingGuy Thibault ( SOPFEU ) • Interface Design Bernie Todd ( Canadian For. Service ) • FBP CodeMike Wotton ( Canadian For. Service ) • Topography and Spatial WeatherJudi Beck ( BC Ministry of Forests ) • Fire Line ConstructionKelvin Hirsh ( Canadian Forest Service ) • Technology TransferTerry Van Nest ( ETC )

  26. Fire Growth Modeling – Development of the CWFGM Developmental Phases of the CWFGM Phase 1 Phase 2 • Enhancements to Spread Algorithm • Fire Line Construction • Fire Line / Resource Efficiency • Spotting and Breaching of Fire Breaks • Residual Stand Modeling • 3-D view • Topography • Elliptical Spread Algorithm Engine • FBP Equations and Calculations • Spatial Data Input • Diurnal Weather Calculations • Fire Ignitions • Modeling of Fire Extinguishment • Modeling of Fuel Breaks Phase 3 • Landscape Disturbance & Succession • Deterministic and stochastic model development

  27. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread Burning Conditions FFMC 80 - 88 DMC 35 DC 300 Fuel Type C2 / C3 Temperature 15 – 27 RH 50 – 98 % Fire Start June 20, noon Fire Stop June 21, 8 pm Wind Speed 0 – 1 km/ hr Fire spreads in a circular pattern under now wind conditions

  28. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread Burning Conditions FFMC 80 - 88 DMC 35 DC 300 Fuel Type C2 / C3 Temperature 15 – 27 RH 50 – 98 % Fire Start June 20, noon Fire Stop June 21, 8 pm Wind Speed 5 – 10 km/ hr Fire spreads in a elliptical pattern under moderate wind conditions

  29. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread Burning Conditions FFMC 80 - 88 DMC 35 DC 300 Fuel Type C2 / C3 Temperature 15 – 27 RH 50 – 98 % Fire Start June 20, noon Fire Stop June 21, 8 pm Wind Speed 10 – 25 km/ hr Fire spreads in a oblong elliptical pattern under high wind conditions

  30. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread Burning Conditions FFMC 80 - 88 DMC 35 DC 300 Fuel Type C2 / C3 Temperature 15 – 27 RH 50 – 98 % Fire Start June 20, noon Fire Stop June 21, 8 pm Wind Speed 10 – 25 km/ hr If the fire lines do NOT stop the spread of the fire at the beginning of the burn period, then the final size will very similar to the situation where NO control was attempted.

  31. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread • Fire spreads is controlled by • spatial fuel patterns. • Green Hardwood stands will • limit fire spread • This is used in fire suppression • planning to control fire spread Spatial Fuel Patterns are important in Fire Spread

  32. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread • As wind speed and directions change over daily periods, the spread direction of the fire will; change. • This fire started as a low wind spread situation on day 1, then on day 2 the winds picked up from the south and then switched to the south westerly direction. Wind Speed and Direction are important in Fire Spread

  33. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Types of Fire Spread Burning Conditions FFMC 80 - 88 DMC 25 DC 300 Fuel Type C2 / C3 Temperature 15 – 30 RH 50 – 98 % Fire Start June 20, noon Fire Stop June 21, 8 pm Wind Speed 1 – 35 km/ hr The model will simulate multiple fire starts, which start at different times and locations but burn under the same weather conditions.

  34. Fire Growth Modeling – Examples Future Model Outputs Actual ---> Rate of Spread Head Fire Intensity Fire Type ( CFB ) Hourly Perimeters Potential ---> Sample outputs from WILDFIRE FGM

  35. Fire Growth Modeling - Summary CWFGM Summary – Model Design • Easy to use and implement into operational environment • Developed in C and C++ for Windows 95 / NT platforms • GIS integration of spatial data • inputs and outputs will be ARCView GridAscii compliant • Diurnal weather modeling • for both weather and FFMC values • Interactive use of model • adaptive to changes ( ie. fuel data and weather streams ) • Outputs • spatial statistics, tables, graphs, ascii files and color graphics files • Easy to integrate with other models and information systems

  36. Fire Growth Modeling - Summary CWFGM Summary - Benefits • Reduce potential for losses due to wildfires • improved fire suppression • fuels management • Improve public safety • Enhance sustainable forest management capability • Increase understanding of fire as a natural disturbance • Evaluate effect of climate change and other natural and human factors on wildfire potential

  37. Fire Growth Modeling Questions ? Chisholm Fire, 2001

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