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Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007

Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007. Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts. 2006. 2007. Source: Consensus Forecasts. House prices 1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month growth 2) . January 2003 – January 2007. New dwellings. Existing dwellings. Housing starts.

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Executive Board meeting 15 March 2007

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  1. Executive Board meeting15 March 2007

  2. Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts 2006 2007 Source: Consensus Forecasts

  3. House prices1) and housing starts in the USSeasonally adjusted. 12-month growth2). January 2003 – January 2007 New dwellings Existing dwellings Housing starts 1) Median price for dwellings 2) 3-month moving average Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank

  4. 10-year yields in different countries Per cent. 1 January 2006 –12 March 2007 US UK Norway Germany Sweden Source: Reuters EcoWin

  5. Yield curve US13 March 2007 3-month 6-month Government bond yields Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  6. 13 March 2007 23 January 2007 Policy rates internationally - actual and expectedat 23 January and 13 March 2007 Norway UK Sweden Euro area US Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  7. Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 -12 March 2007 12 March 2007 19 January 2007 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  8. Implied volatility in the foreign exchange market (GRI) and the US equity market (VIX) 2 January 2001 – 13 March 2007 Implied volatility of US equities Implied volatility in the foreign exchange market Sources: Reuters (EcoWin) and Norges Bank

  9. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2010 I-44 (right-hand scale) Average 1 - 13 March 2007 13 March 2007 22 January 2007 Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  10. Various inflation indicators12-month change. Per cent CPI Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean Source: Statistics Norway

  11. CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/06 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1)The CPI-ATE and CPI-ATED were adjusted for day care rates in 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Labour marketIn 1000s of persons, seasonally adjusted. January 2002 – February 2007 LFS employment1) Unemployment Registered unemployed LFS unemployment 1) The changes to the LFS have resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and 2006. This affects the seasonally adjusted monthly figures from December 2005 onwards. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV)

  13. Business tendency surveyCapacity utilisation in manufacturing. Per cent. 1988 Q1 - 2006 Q4 Source: Statistics Norway

  14. Order backlogs and new orders in manufacturingUnrevised figures. Index. 1995 = 100. 1993 Q1 - 2006 Q4 New orders Order backlogs Source: Statistics Norway

  15. Enterprise sector credit1) and liquid assets2)12-month growth. Per cent. January 2000 – January 2007 (C3 to December) Money supply (M2) Total credit (C3) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2). Source: Statistics Norway

  16. Enterprise sector credit1) and liquid assets2)Holdings. In billions of NOK. January 2000 – January 2007 (C3 to December) Total credit (C3) Money supply (M2) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2). Source: Statistics Norway

  17. House prices and household debtPercentage change on same month/quarter previous year. Per cent. January 2001 - February 2007 House prices Household debt (C2) Real estate industry Statistics Norway Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  18. Household net interest-bearing debt and net financial assetsIn billions of NOK. 1997 Q1 – 2006 Q3 Net interest-bearing debt1) Net financial assets2) 1) Total debt less bank deposits 2) Total assets less total debt Source: Statistics Norway

  19. Monetary policy strategy • The key policy rate should lie in the interval 4 – 5 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Report on 27 June 2007, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections.

  20. Projected inflation and output gap in the baseline scenarioPer cent. 2005 Q1 – 2010 Q4 Output gap CPI CPI-ATE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  21. The baseline scenarios in IR 3/06 and MPR 1/07 Output gap Sight deposit rate MPR 1/07 MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 IR 3/06 CPI-ATE CPI MPR 1/07 MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 IR 3/06 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  22. Norges Bank's and the market's path for the overnight deposit rateAt 13 March 2007 Baseline scenario MPR 1/07 Market 13 March 2007 Market before IR 3/06 (31 Oct) Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  23. Executive Board meeting15 March 2007

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