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Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections

Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections. Southlake Kids Interested in Leadership Hosted by Rep. Capriglione HD 98 Austin, TX April 6, 2018. @TexasDemography.

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Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections

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  1. Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections Southlake Kids Interested in Leadership Hosted by Rep. Capriglione HD 98 Austin, TX April 6, 2018 @TexasDemography

  2. Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above. ~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991

  3. The Population Research Institute, 2.1 Kids: Stable Population http://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY

  4. Texas is experiencing significant growth.

  5. Growing States, 2000-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

  6. Population Growth, 2010-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

  7. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  8. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  9. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  10. Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

  11. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2016-2017 2015-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates. *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016. 8

  12. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2016-2017 2015-2016 9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates.

  13. Texas continues to diversify.

  14. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, • 2000, 2010, and 2016 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates

  15. Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2016

  16. Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010

  17. Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

  18. Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates, the U.S. and select states, 2015 Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  19. Texas is young, but aging.

  20. States with the Oldest Median Ages, 2000, 2010, 2014

  21. Median Age, Texas Counties, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

  22. Percent of Population 65 Years Plus, Texas Counties, 2011-2015 30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

  23. Population by Age Group and as Percent of the Total Texas Population, 1950-2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections , 0.5 Migration Scenario

  24. Economic Outlook

  25. Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2016 • Unemployment rate • Texas = 5.6% • U.S. = 5.8% • Median Household Income • Texas = $56,565 • U.S. = $57,617 • Median Family Income • Texas = $67,025 • U.S. = 71,062 • Median earnings for males working full time • Texas = $47,351 • U.S. = $50,586 • Median earnings for females working full time • Texas = $37,576 • U.S. = $40,626 • Poverty rate • Texas = 15.6% • U.S. = 14.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

  26. Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2016 5-Year Estimates

  27. Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

  28. Number and Percent of Texans Living Below Poverty, 1993 to 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.

  29. Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates.

  30. Percent of the population with income below poverty, Texas counties, 2011-2015 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample

  31. Unemployment and Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2016

  32. Poverty Rate by Educational Attainment, Texas, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates.

  33. Educational Attainment, Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, 2016 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2016

  34. Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

  35. Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

  36. Trends in Latino Education in the U.S. Over the past decade, Hispanic high school dropout rates have dropped. College enrollment among Hispanics is increased. There is still a large disparity between Hispanics and other groups in obtaining a bachelor’s degree. Hispanic college students attend public 2-year schools at higher rates than other groups. Hispanics are less likely than other groups to have student debt. Nearly all Latino youths (89%) believe a college degree is important for getting ahead in life. Source: Pew Research Center, 2016, 5 Facts about Latinos and Education and Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos Come of Age in America, 2009

  37. Population Projections

  38. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections

  39. Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Population Estimates

  40. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

  41. Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

  42. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1980 to 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario

  43. Demographic Overview Texas is experiencing significant growth. Population growth is not geographically evenly distributed. Texas continues to racially/ethnically diversify. The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging. The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas. A young and growing workforce could be a competitive edge for Texas and its growing metro areas. Demographic shifts may have serious implications for maintaining inclusive and equitable economic growth in the state.

  44. Office: (512) 936-3542 Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu demographics.texas.gov Lila Valencia, Ph.D. @TexasDemography

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