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SINERGEE Meeting – 27 Oct. 2004 Current Status of Operational Model Future model developments.

SINERGEE Meeting – 27 Oct. 2004 Current Status of Operational Model Future model developments. Recent Global Model Changes. Cycle G33 – 26th May 2004 High spectral resolution IR sounder data (AIRS) on Aqua 30 minute locally received ATOVS data (EARS) ATOVS over land where elevation > 1000m

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SINERGEE Meeting – 27 Oct. 2004 Current Status of Operational Model Future model developments.

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  1. SINERGEE Meeting – 27 Oct. 2004 • Current Status of Operational Model • Future model developments.

  2. Recent Global Model Changes Cycle G33 – 26th May 2004 • High spectral resolution IR sounder data (AIRS) on Aqua • 30 minute locally received ATOVS data (EARS) • ATOVS over land where elevation > 1000m • AMSU-A from Aqua (redundancy with NOAA-16) • Improved RTM (RTTOV-7) in 3D-VAR • Improved bias correction Cycle G34 - 5th October 2004 • 4DVAR.

  3. Global Model Plans 2005 • January 2005 – HadGEM1 catch up • Increased Saharan Albedo (M. Brooks, R. Betts) • Improved (3C) Microphysics (D. Wilson) • 8B Boundary Layer - revised diagnosis of K profile depths (A. Lock, E. Whelan) • Spring/Summer 2005 – improved surface fluxes • Surface analysis for T and RH (SYNOPS) • Soil Moisture Analysis – T and Q increments (Best, 2000) • Summer 2005 • 70 levels (retirement of the Stratospheric model). • 40km Horizontal resolution. • Prognostic Cloud and Condensate (PC2). (Wilson et.al, 2002) • Ensembles.

  4. Improving Models - Resolution Global 60Km 40km – 2005 25km- 2010 NAE 20Km 12km - 2005 38 levels 70 Levels - 2005 UK MES 12km 4km -2005

  5. IRAQ low cloud – Impact of 3C microphysics(D.Wilson) Fog Fractions (12UTC 22/1/04) VIS 06UTC 22/1/04 OLD New - 3C Persistent low cloud/Fog – underestimate surf T

  6. Improved microphysics – 1.5m Temperature Malcolm Brooks Northern Hemisphere Mean of 5 cases 12Z 20/06/2004 - 12Z 06/09/2004 Error against Forecast range Bias Blue = Trial Red = Control RMSE

  7. 8B BL Scheme Revised K profile diagnosis in BL – decoupled Sc. A.Lock & E.Whelan Total Cloud 8A BL Beneficial 10% reduction In cloud fraction over Subtropical oceans. 8B-8A

  8. Cloud in global NWP model - JJA JJA Total Cloud Fraction Net SW Down TOA UM-ERBE

  9. Impacts of 8B BL scheme on tropical Precipitation

  10. Further Global Model Plans 2005 – 2006 • Improvements to existing massflux convection scheme? - Autumn 2005 • Entrainment (tuning) and possible adaptive scheme (Derbyshire). • Smoother detrainment • Mid level convection – closure? • Downdraughts. • New turbulence based convection – 2006. (A. Grant, B. Shipway)

  11. Dust forecasting (July 2004) 12Z 19th July 2004 • Two approaches: • Provide winds fields to NAME • Implement a prognostic DUST scheme S. Woodward (2001) JGR 106 g/m³

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