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Precautionary Principle

Precautionary Principle. Overview Fundamentals Distinction between Principle & application Evolution of the concept What drives (and doesn’t drive) eNGOs Legitimate concerns regarding the PP Wider, strategic context. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context.

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Precautionary Principle

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  1. Precautionary Principle Overview Fundamentals Distinction between Principle & application Evolution of the concept What drives (and doesn’t drive) eNGOs Legitimate concerns regarding the PP Wider, strategic context

  2. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Why Worry? • Competent science of the day missed effects with global implications • PCBs & DDT • CFCs & the ozone hole • Endocrine disrupters • Gulfstream shutdown and the NAO? • Relying on luck, rather than judgement • No way to run a policy!

  3. No suspicions/evidence Scientific suspicion/evidence of risk likely Low probability Quite possible A strong probability Balance/weight of evidence Reasonably certain Probability 25% Probability 95% Probability 75% Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Scientific Proof A does not cause B Negligible & insignificant BSE blood donor bans Catastrophe insurance Animal protein feed bans Balance of probabilities Civil Law standard of proof Swedish Chemical Law on Hazardous substances (evidence of harm) IPPC Climate Change Great Lakes & Chemical Pollution Statistically significant Beyond all reasonable doubt Evidence of safety(Swedish Chemical Law) Criminal Law standard of proof A causes B

  4. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Uncertainty • Common usage hides the complexity • Risk • Know the outcomes, know the odds • Uncertainty • May know the main outcomes, don’t know the odds • Ignorance • Don’t know what we don’t know

  5. Risk, Science & Precaution ‘Unscientific’ Appraisal Opaque, ad hoc, anecdotal, doctrinaire, partisan, unaccountable, no learning PLUS narrow framing, deny incommensuarability, neglect of ignorance CORNUCOPIAN ‘anything goes’ APOCALYPTIC ‘stop everything’ Narrow regime ‘Proof’ burden on sceptics Alternatives excluded Claimed benefits assumed Emphasise rights of proponent Broad regime ‘Proof’ burden on advocate Openness to alternatives Justification of benefits rights of wider society PERMISSIVE RESTRICTIVE NARROW RISK ASSESSMENT PRECAUTIONARY APPROACHES ‘Scientific’ Appraisal transparent , systematic, sceptical, peer-review, independent, accountable, learning PLUS broad framing, recognise incommensurability, acknowledge ignorance

  6. Alternatively, Facts vs. Values Facts CORNUCOPIAN ‘anything goes’ APOCALYPTIC ‘stop everything’ PERMISSIVE RESTRICTIVE Values Values NARROW RISK ASSESSMENT PRECAUTIONARY APPROACHES Facts

  7. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Principle vs. Application • Distinguish between the Principle • which is simple • … & its application • where the detailed thinking starts • Toxics – Clean production; • Precautionary Approach to fisheries; • GM – no consensus; • etc.

  8. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Major Developments • North Sea Conferences & OSPAR • Hazardous substances, nutrients, off-shore • FAO Code, UN Straddling Stocks Agreement • Fisheries • Trade vs. Environment • Seattle; an incremental watershed? • EC Communication • General stance

  9. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context International eNGOs • Driven by • Values • Rational aims, goals • Not driven by • Fund raising • Irrational hatred of industry or Americans • Communists

  10. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Legitimate Concerns • Becomes pressing as shift to PP • Arguable that until now mostly about prevention of identified problems • The PP has the potential for • False Alarms • Unnecessary Burdens • Lost Opportunities

  11. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context The Wider Context • An end to the old certainties • Goodbye lobbyists, hello mediators • Globalisation • of effects • of information and ideas • of stakeholders • Paradoxical importance of cultural differences • e.g. US vs. European perceptions on GM

  12. Fundamentals Distinctions Events eNGOs Concerns Context Closing Suggestions • In principle, can have a rational approach to PP • Involving stakeholders, wider society • But can’t be done in isolation, or in short term • At one level perhaps need to back off • Think strategically • Pressing need is to create trust, then consensus • Across society • Not easy; both values and facts • But Industry needs this to happen – Nuclear, CFCs, Brent Spar, Mad Cows, GM, Climate Change …

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