Town Planning and Statistical Data The Case of Hong Kong

1. Town Planning and Statistical Data The Case of Hong Kong Jimmy Leung Planning Department Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government

2. Aims of Town Planning in HK To provide a quality living environment, tofacilitate economic development, and to promote the health, safety, convenience and general welfare of the community by guiding and controlling development and the use of land.

3. Statistical Data for Town Planning • To support planning, we require data on: • Overall HK • Small areas within HK • Cross-boundary movement between HK and the Mainland • Neighbouring areas of HK • HK residents living and working in the Mainland

4. Sources of Statistical Data • Statistics compiled and surveys conducted by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) of HK • Administrative records of other government departments • Surveys conducted by the Planning Department (PlanD)

5. Data on Overall Hong Kong • To enable planners to grasp the current social and economic situation and trends of HK • HK has its own statistical system • C&SD compiles very comprehensive official statistics • C&SD also produces projections of population, households and employment for overall HK.

6. Data on Small Areas • Small area statistics, such as population and employment by small districts, are also essential for planning at both territorial and district levels • Some examples : • Socio-economic data of of population in each district based on population censuses and surveys by C&SD • administrative records of government departments, e.g. student places from Education Bureau

7. Data on Small Areas • PlanD also plays an active role in producing small area statistics. • PlanD leads an inter-departmental Working Group on Population Distribution Projections (WGPD) to produce 10-year population projections of small areas in HK

8. Data on Small Areas • PlanD also produces projections of population and employment by small areas for a longer time span (the latest up to 2031), known as the Territorial Planning and Employment Data Matrix (TPEDM)

9. Data on Small Areas • The WGPD projections and TPEDM are used by government departments, such as the Education Bureau, Water Supplies Department, Transport Department, Registration and Electoral Office for their own planning and business purposes. • This ensures that government departments are using a consistent set of data in their work

10. Data on Cross-boundary Movement • In 2007, on average 442,000 passengers and 42,000 vehicles crossed the boundary between HK and the Mainland each day. • More HK people are working and living in the Mainland

11. Data on Cross-boundary Movement • PlanD needs data on cross-boundary movements for planning of crossing facilities • Some data on cross-boundary passengers and vehicles are available from the administrative records of the Immigration Department and the Customs and Excise Department • These data are very basic and cannot fully meet the need for planning, such as information on trip purpose, origin/destination, mode of transport.

12. Data on Cross-boundary Movement • To fill the data gap, PlanD launched a series of Cross-boundary Travel Surveys on regularly since 1999. • Salient features of Cross-boundary Travel Survey: • Conducted in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2007 • Two-week fieldwork period in Nov/Dec of the year

13. Data on Cross-boundary Movement • Salient features: • Intercept passengers and vehicle drivers at the boundary crossings and collect information through face-to-face interviews • Large scale, interviewed 56,000 passengers and 16,000 vehicle drivers in the 2007 round

14. Data on Cross-boundary Movement • Salient features: • Covers all boundary crossings: air, road, rail, ferry. • Covers all passengers: HK residents, HK people living in the Mainland, Visitors from the Mainland and People living in other places. • Major data items include trip purpose, origin/destination, mode of transport, frequency of travel, duration of stay and socio-economic characteristics of the trip makers

15. Data on Neighbouring Areas • PlanD needs to keep track of the social and economic development of HK’s neighouring areas, in particular cities in the Pearl River Delta.

16. Data on Neighbouring Areas • Establishment of the “Hong Kong-Macao-Guangdong Information Database” • Discussions on planning information sharing with Shenzhen, Macao and Zhuhai

17. Data on HK residents living and working in the Mainland • Needed for planning infrastructure and community facilities • Difficult to obtain information about them due to: • their high mobility • their relatively small in number in the Mainland • no complete and accurate list of them through administrative records

18. Data on HK residents living and working in the Mainland • Initiatives by PlanD : • household surveys in HK • surveys in the Mainland in cooperation with the Mainland statistical agencies • C&SD is also exploring with the National Bureau of Statistics to explore whether HK residents living in the Mainland can be covered in China’s 2010 Population Census

19. Example of application:Hong Kong 2030 : Planning Vision and Strategy

20. Purpose of Study • A strategic, territory-wide planning framework to guide development of land and infrastructure • Assess development needs in the long term and formulate strategies to respond • Contribute to achieving HK’s vision – Asia’s world city

21. Environmental • Social • Economic/ Financial • Transport • Land use Public Engagement The Study Process Impact Analyses BASELINE PREFERRED OPTION REFERENCE SCENARIO STRATEGY OPTIONS VISION FOR HK Sensitivity Analyses Performance Evaluation PLANNING OBJECTIVES MONITORING SYSTEM “WHAT IF” SCENARIOS Stage 1 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 2

22. Defining Planning Objective • Four Major Areas of Concerns : • The Desired Living Environment • The National Dimension • The Changing Economy • Population Dynamics

23. Defining Planning Objective • Statistical data related to air pollution, air movement, water quality, waste generation, biodiversity, energy consumption, traffic movement The Desired Living Environment

24. Defining Planning Objective • Statistical data on cross-boundary passenger, vehicle and cargo movements • Statistical data on Mainland’s economic and social development • National and regional plans and studies The National Dimension

25. Defining Planning Objective • Statistical data on the HK economy, such as GDP, employment, visitor arrivals, cargoes, import and export trades The Changing Economy

26. 91% 73% 80% Changes in the Economy US$10,000 % Per capita GDP 2007(at current market prices) Percentage Contribution of Services to GDP(at current factor cost)

27. Defining Planning Objective • Statistical data on the Hong Kong population and its age-sex structure, labour force and households. Population Dynamics

28. 0.5 m/decade 1.0 m/decade Slowing of Population Growth

29. Smaller Households Persons

30. Increasing Mobility million thousand Cross-Boundary Passenger Movements Mobile Residents at Mid-Year

31. Ageing of Population 2036 2006 Thousand persons

32. Setting out Working Assumptions • Population projections • Employment projections • Housing Land Requirements • Economic Land Requirements • Port, Airport and Strategic Transport Infrastructure Requirements

33. Example of application:Analysis of the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the Tin Shui Wai New Town

34. Tin Shui Wai • A new town in the northwestern part of HK • Developed in 1990’s, with a population of around 270000 now

35. Tin Shui Wai • Infamous for being a community with family and social problems • Some people attributed this to poor planning • A comprehensive study using data from the 2006 Population By-census was conducted to: • understand the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population • identify issues and lessons related to planning

36. Tin Shui Wai • Characteristics of the community identified : • lower income • lower education level • higher unemployment rate • higher proportion of young population • high concentration of public housing • Lessons : • higher proportion of young people and non-working mother in the early stage of new town development • need to provide recreation and social facilities for them • no direct relationship between town planning and family problems

37. Example of application:Cross-boundary Traffic Prediction

38. Cross-boundary Traffic Prediction • Need to project cross-boundary passenger and vehicular traffic for planning crossing facilities • A 4-stage transport model to project the demand • Model requires a lot of statistical data in model development, calibration and runs

39. Cross-boundary Traffic PredictionExamples of data application • Administrative records : • trends of cross-boundary passengers and vehicles • Cross-boundary Travel Survey results : • breakdowns of passengers by different groups and trip purpose • origins and destinations of the cross-boundary passengers and vehicles for prediction of trip ends • Projections of overall population : • to derive the projected number of cross-boundary trips by applying the trip rate to the base population

40. Conclusion • Statistical data are very important to planning • HK has already developed very good sources for the full range of data for planning • Cross-boundary issues become an important dimension in planning • Strong need to collect data on cross-boundary movements and HK residents living and working in the Mainland • Cooperation with the governments of neighbouring areas on how to meet this need deserves further exploration

41. Thank you Oct 2008