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Collaborative Inter-RPO Regional Modeling James Boylan (Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch) 2009 Region 4 Modelers Workshop March 18, 2009. Outline. Background Model Runs PSAT Modeling Summary of Results. Background.

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Outline

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  1. Collaborative Inter-RPO Regional ModelingJames Boylan(Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch)2009 Region 4 Modelers WorkshopMarch 18, 2009

  2. Outline • Background • Model Runs • PSAT Modeling • Summary of Results

  3. Background • VISTAS is part of a joint study with MRPO/LADCO and MANE-VU/OTC to analyze regional particulate matter (PM) and ozone transport in the Eastern U.S. • Support states response to CAIR remand • Quantify interstate impacts (Section 110(a)(2)(D)) • Assess additional control needed for new ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS • CAMx v4.51 is being used to simulate future year PM2.5 and ozone levels and PSAT & OSAT are being used to perform source apportionment • 2009 Planning year for ozone moderate nonattainment areas and PM2.5 nonattainment areas (attainment date 2010) • 2012 Planning year for ozone moderate nonattainment areas and PM2.5 nonattainment areas, with 3-year extension • 2018 First milestone year for regional haze planning

  4. Modeling Domain 36-km PM2.5 domain 12-km Ozone domain

  5. PM2.5 Model Simulations • Base Year Simulations • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2005 EI (MRPO, NY, VISTAS)  Done • CAMx/PSAT, 2002 Met, 2005 EI (NY)  Done • CAMx/PSAT, 2005 Met, 2005 EI (MRPO)  Done • Future Year Simulations • CAMx, 2002 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C (NY)  Done/Redo • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2018 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo • CAMx/PSAT, 2005 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C (VISTAS)  Done • CAMx/PSAT, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C (LADCO)  Done/Redo • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2009, 2012, 2018 EI Scenario D (LADCO) • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario E (LADCO) • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2018 EI Scenario F (LADCO)

  6. Ozone Model Simulations • Base Year Simulations • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2005 EI  Done • CAMx/OSAT, 2005 Met, 2005 EI • Future Year Simulations • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2009 EI Scenario C • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C  Done • CAMx/OSAT, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario C • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2012 EI Scenario E • CAMx, 2005 Met, 2018 EI Scenario F

  7. Emission Scenarios • Scenario C (2009, 2012, 2018) • “Legally enforceable” controls + EPA NEEDS • Scenario D (2009, 2012, 2018) • Same as Scenario C + wintertime NOx controls • Scenario E (2012) • NOx limit of 0.125 lbs/MMBtu • SO2 limit of 0.250 lbs/MMBtu • Scenario F (2018) • NOx limit of 0.07 lbs/MMBtu • SO2 limit of 0.10 lbs/MMBtu

  8. 32 PSAT Source Regions 6 PSAT Source Categories EGU Point Non-EGU Point Ammonia + Biogenics Non-Road (w/ Marine) On-Road Mobile Area Sources PSAT Modeling

  9. Speciated FRM vs CAMx

  10. PSAT Contribution from GA

  11. “Significant” Contributionsto Annual PM2.5 NOTE: All results are PRELIMINARY.

  12. Summary of Results • Model Performance • Underestimate summer SO4, overestimate winter NO3, underestimate OC (all seasons) • Identified 2012 Nonattainment Areas • Estimated individual state contributions to specific monitoring sites • Similar results with absolute and relative metrics • Similar results using 2002 and 2005 meteorology • Higher concentrations & more transport with 2002

  13. Contact Information Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354James.Boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851

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