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San Diego Venture Group “Introducing the Always On generation”

San Diego Venture Group “Introducing the Always On generation”. Anthony B. Perkins Chairman & Editor-in-Chief June 26th, 2002. 10000.00. 8000.00. 6000.00. 4000.00. 2000.00. 0.00. What did we learn from the Internet Bubble?. 12000.00. $150 billion market cap. Yahoo. Nasdaq.

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San Diego Venture Group “Introducing the Always On generation”

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  1. San Diego Venture Group“Introducing the Always On generation” Anthony B. Perkins Chairman & Editor-in-Chief June 26th, 2002

  2. 10000.00 8000.00 6000.00 4000.00 2000.00 0.00 What did we learn from the Internet Bubble? 12000.00 $150 billion market cap Yahoo Nasdaq

  3. “90% of the entrepreneurial, economic and investment opportunities associated with the Internet and the web are still ahead of us.” - Red Herring’s Prediction

  4. Introducing the Always On generation* • 74% of teens use IM several times a week, and claim that it plays a “major role” in their lives • While they still prefer the phone, 20% say that they use IM to contact their friends • 17% used IM to break-up with someone • 30% have developed new friends using IM • 94% use IM for homework, 41% get help from teachers by email, 17% use Internet to cheat * 12 to 17 year old kids in the United States

  5. The emerging PANs and HANs 2001 2005 Internet Surfers (global) 500 million 2 billion* Cell phone users 1 billion 2 billion Text messages sent (global) 360 billion 1.2 trillion Broadband access (U.S.) 8 million 20 million Households with Internet TV (global) 12 million 200 million Mobile services (global) $200 billion $800 billion * One billion will come from new mobile users

  6. 100 Pbps 10 Pbps 1 Pbps 100Tbps 10Tbps 1Tbps 100Gbps 10Gbps 1Gbps 100Mbps ARPA & NSF Data to ‘96 10Mbps 1Mbps 100Kbps 10Kbps 1Kbps 100 bps 10 bps 10 bps 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 U.S. Internet Traffic Growth Projected at 4x / year 4x / year 2.8x / year U.S. Internet Traffic Source: Dr. Roberts et al., 2001 (Caspian Net)

  7. The Geeks versus the Moguls 1 CD MP3 Music (55.0) 15 min Streaming Video (32.1) 24 Digital Photos (18.0) Large PowerPoint File (8.0) Large web page (0.1)

  8. Broadband: the currency of change “Bandwidth power is growing at least three times faster than computing power.” - George Gilder

  9. The Real-time Economy: Dell-ize or die • Over 90% of Cisco’s and Dell’s sales are facilitated over the Internet • Dell’s Austin manufacturing plant carries neither raw materials nor finished goods • Cisco has used e-learning to train and certify over 300,000 networking specialists • Dell’s return on investment is over 800%, and has a negative 24-day float • Cisco spends 6% on IT, almost twice the average

  10. B2B Explosion Still Ahead:“IT will provide over 2 times the productivity in the next 10 years than it did in the last 10 years.” — Bill Gates 2000 2005 B2B commerce (global) $131 billion $3-6 trillion IM users at Work (U.S.) 13.4 million 50 million %/Sales spent on IT (U.S.) 3.5% 6% IT as a % of GDP 20% 30% Total $ of IT spending $100 billion $1.6 trillion

  11. U.S. Businesses and Waves of Applications Wave 1 In the Past 3 Years Wave 2 In the Next 3 Years Wave 3 2004-2011 45% of U.S. businesses currently working on Wave 1 applications … 10% of U.S. businesses have moved on to Wave 2 applications … 3% of U.S. businesses have completed more than 50% of Wave 1 and 2 applications … • eMarketing • Customer service and support • eCommerce • Finance • Human resources • Note: Prelminary data • Procurement/MRO • Sales force automation • Supply chain management

  12. Smart Networks = Productivity Boost Productivity Growth U.S. businesses’ adoption of network-enabled applications is the single most important factor on future productivity growth. 2.1% Accounting for …. 40% 1.2% 1974 1995 2001 2011

  13. The Real-time Generation of Companies • Mobile Devices Apple Compaq Ericsson Handspring NTT/DoCoMo Noikia Palm Think Outside Real-Time Supply Chain Software SeeCommerce I2 Technologies Tillion PowerMarket Manugistics • Real-Time Alert Layer KnowNow Bang Networks Autonomy • Real-Time Synchronization Software Access360 Oblix Savant Technology Acxiom Microsoft Novell Real-Time Business Layer Groove Zaplet Blaze Software KnowNow • Software Adapter Level Tibco Software Virtra Systems WebMethods Mercator Software

  14. Betting on the anti-trends • The best time to be an entrepreneur is when MBA applications are up • The best time to be VC is in the middle of a VC shakeout • Most costly investments in the web—consumer behavior conversion—have been made • The best time to start a company is during a recession: Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, H-P, and Disney • Leading company’s of new era go public after the bubble: Dell, Compaq and Microsoft

  15. The new networked world order • Innovation and entrepreneurial capitalism have gone international • The rising paradox between new communities and new isolation • Big brother becomes a reality • The rise of cyber gangs and network thievery • The emergence of the virtual nations and cults

  16. The authentic entrepreneur is our hero • Innovative (Andy Grove/Jobs) • Focused (Gates/Jobs) • Cheap (Michael Dell) • Competitive (McNealy, Ellison, Chambers) • Risk Takers (all of the above)

  17. “These overnight successes sure take a helluva long time.” - Steve Jobs CEO, Apple Computer

  18. Turning Off - Will it be possible?

  19. To Recap - Tony’s Top 10 Trends 1.      Cost of being a web entrepreneur is at all-time low.2.      The “Always On” Generation (12 to 19 year olds) will show us the way to new applications and services.3.      This year the number of non-PC devices hooked to the web will exceed PCs hooked to the web.4.      Consumers are increasingly downloading entertainment content over the web. 5.      B2B transaction over the web is still exploding.

  20. Tony’s Top 10 Trends Cont. 6.      Networked enabled applications are continuing to drive productivity curves.7.      All numbers associated with the web are still moving up and to the right - including the number of surfers, data traffic, and average bits sent per user.8.      Great entrepreneurs are still the folks to bet on: Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, John Chambers, Scott McNealy, Michael Dell and Larry Ellison.9.      The new networked world will increasingly present social and political challenges such as security and the rise of cyber-terrorism, creating new opportunities for entrepreneurs to solve.10.     Red Herring has become the media source of choice for those participating in the business of innovation.

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